(Part 2 of a 2-Part Series)

In Part 1 of this series, I encouraged independent voters to take a more rigorous approach in choosing our next President. I asked you to forego the expedient option of going with political party leanings and the messaging of one candidate. Also, the election is too important to base your vote on a single issue. Rather, the best way to decide your vote is to systematically review and validate the full array of narratives of both parties and their candidates. In order to take control of your vote for President, it’s necessary to scrutinize what the candidates and political parties have been saying to you.

By reviewing and validating all the key narratives of both candidates and political parties you can determine for yourself whether each narrative is true, misleading, unfounded, or patently false. You can compare the respective candidates and parties in terms of the truthfulness of their full array of narratives. You can assess how much the candidates and parties have misled the pubic and diminished trust in government. And, finally, you can decide whether the candidates deserve your trust, your vote, and your campaign contributions.

Examining all the key narratives from the candidates and their respective parties is a heavy lift. It would take hundreds of hours; and many of you may also lack the research background. Accordingly, as a jumping off point, I offered to provide a summary of my work on the subject. My hope is that this summary will provide a base of understanding that enables you to come to your own conclusions on these and other narratives.

This article, Part 2, organizes the narratives into ten major issue areas. Please note that my work is incomplete in that I didn’t include all conceivable major issues and accompanying narratives. For instance, I didn’t treat health care, federal spending and national debt, mental health, racial inequality, Supreme Court reform, artificial intelligence, public school curriculum, foreign policy, terrorism, and LBGTQ rights. This would have made the analysis too voluminous and unwieldy. Instead, I used my best judgment to identify the ten major issue areas that encompassed the vast majority of narratives currently being used to influence our votes for President.

Finally, as I put the finishing touches on this series, there is enormous debate surrounding whether Joe Biden should stay in the race or drop out. His poor performance at the first debate brought his age and mental fitness to the forefront. Allies and objective commentators are asking whether this performance was an aberration, or whether it’s part of an ongoing and deteriorating condition. Others, including Democratic officeholders and major donors, are calling upon Biden to step down.

The possibility of Biden leaving the race obviously complicates this analysis. After all, wouldn’t his leaving render as obsolete all the narratives directed at him? And wouldn’t we need to evaluate a whole new set of narratives directed at the candidate who replaces him?

After some thought, I believe most of the narratives directed at Biden will remain relevant and useful, even if he drops out. I think this because Trump and the Republicans will most likely just tweak the current narratives instead of composing a completely different set directed at a new candidate. Thus, for example, on the issue of high inflation, it still works for Trump and Republicans to place the blame on reckless spending by Biden and the Democrats. And, should Biden’s replacement be Kamala Harris, they can directly blame her as part of the Biden Administration.

Consequently, I decided to complete and publish this analysis even though it’s still unknown whether Biden will stay in the race. Should he drop out, and should major new narratives emerge regarding his replacement, I will publish an update.

1. Age and fitness for office of Biden and Trump

Trump/Republican narratives: At the first presidential debate (June 27th), Biden’s unfitness for office was on undeniably on full display for the world to see. Joe Biden is too old and mentally unfit to be President. He can’t string two sentences together. He can’t remember and confuses critical information. He has dementia. Democrats and the liberal press have been hiding his mental failures and denying the obvious for years. Finally, when Biden does give forceful presentations (such as his State of the Union speech), it is due to being jacked up on drugs.

Biden/Democrat narratives: Joe Biden is fully fit to fulfill the duties of President. His doctors have certified him as fit. As a lifelong stutterer, he sometimes struggles over words. He coughs and clears his throat due to acid reflux. And he sometimes stumbles and falls due to a stiff gait caused by “wear and tear” changes on his spine. Accusations regarding his lack of fitness are coming from Republicans and the conservative media, who cherry pick and combine selected incidents (dubbed “cheap fakes”), while ignoring many occasions when the President is sharp, decisive, and eloquent (such as his 2024 State of the Union speech). The poor debate performance was due to a “bad night” brought on by a cold, jet lag, and lack of sleep.

Trump is unfit for office because he is a convicted criminal who lies incessantly. He tried to overthrow the results of a legitimate election, causing an insurrection at the Capitol. Trump too stumbles over his words, can’t remember details, freezes during presentations, and often speaks nonsense.

Research: I have previously written on the subject of Biden’s age and fitness, and the discussion is relevant to Trump as well. My research focuses on the difference between “objective” and “opinion” reporting. It also stresses the importance of relying on our own direct observations, whenever possible . Objective reporting presents both sides of an issue, with as little bias as possible, and leaves it up to the reader to decide. Opinion reporting, on the other hand, tells the reader what to think, and presents one-sided information to prove the point. With direct observation, you watch the candidate in action and form your own opinions, rather than watch a clip and be told what to think.

Up until the end of June 2024, opinion reporting was the order of the day. The vast majority of concerns about Biden’s fitness were raised by Republicans and the Right-leaning media. And most concerns about Trump were raised by the Democrats and the Left-leaning media. For example, here’s a portrayal of Biden wandering aimlessly, and here’s a sample of Trump’s mental slips. Both sides use “cheap fakes” to convince audiences that the opponent is unfit for office.

Trump, many Republicans, and Fox News commentators have all extensively repeated that Biden is “jacked up on drugs” to explain strong or forceful presentations by the President. To date, no proof has been provided to substantiate these claims. Further, there is no science that any particular drug could improve Biden’s performance.

This is not to say there hasn’t been objective reporting on Biden’s fitness for office. Here are three recent articles that address the question of whether Biden is too old to run again:  Washington Post, “Biden-turning 80, faces renewed age questions as he weighs reelection,” November 11, 2022; The Hill, “Biden can’t escape questions on his age,” June 22, 2022; NPR, “Biden, turning 80, faces an age-old question,” November 22, 2022.  All of these articles cite polls that indicate a large majority of Americans – and a significant percentages of Democrats – believe Biden is too old to run again. The articles also name and quote various leaders or prominent individuals who have expressed concerns or come out against a run. 

With Biden’s poor performance at the first presidential debate, all those watching had the opportunity for direct observation. The President definitely struggled. The issue of his fitness is now the subject of intense debate. At issue is whether the debate performance was a “bad episode” (off night) or due to a condition. And, if due to a condition, how fast is it worsening or deteriorating over time? By mid to late July we’ll probably know whether Biden drops out of the race or remains the Democratic candidate.

Conclusions: If Biden remains in the race, each of us will have to decide whether he is unfit for office or whether he can do the job. Hopefully we’ll be informed about any diagnosed neurological conditions, including the severity and likely progression. Otherwise, I can’t tell you what to think on this one. I do urge you to rely on your own direct observations as much as possible. Watch Biden in speeches, important meetings, and the remaining presidential debate. Watch the whole presentation, if possible, and not just clips accompanied by commentary from reporters. Be very wary of opinion reporting and “cheap fakes” put together by the Right-leaning media.

There is also the question of Trump’s fitness for office. Here again, I can’t tell you what to think. Be wary of opinion reporting and “cheap fakes” put together by the Left-leaning media. Rely on your direct observations, and watch his entire presentations. Also, because Trump has been caught lying many, many times, you should look for fact checks of his assertions. If you confirm that Trump persistently lies, does this make him unfit for office? And what about his arrests and convictions? In particular, is Trump unfit for office because he sought to illegally overthrow the results of an election he lost? Again, these are questions you have to answer for yourself.

Finally, there is the question of whether you can still vote for a candidate you believe is unfit (mentally, morally, criminally, or otherwise) to serve as President. If you find a candidate unfit, shouldn’t that be disqualifying? Again, the answer is up to you. Personally, I’m going to weigh the extent of the unfitness against my findings on all the other narratives.

2. The economy (inflation, gas prices, oil production, interest rates, jobs, wages, etc.)

Trump/Republican narratives: Joe Biden and the Democrats destroyed the historically great economy created by Trump. Biden is responsible for record high inflation that is causing Americans everywhere to suffer. Gas prices have especially soared due Biden’s war on fossil fuels, leading to reduced oil production and drilling. Groceries and other commodities are much more expensive as well. Wages haven’t kept up with inflation. Very high interest rates prevent Americans from buying cars, homes, and making other major purchases. Americans are also suffering from record credit card debt.

Biden/Democrat narratives: The best way to grow the economy is from the middle out and from the bottom up. The Biden Administration accomplished this through major legislative successes such as American Rescue Plan Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Chips Act (semiconductors), and clean energy initiatives. These efforts have revitalized the U.S. economy. The US economy is now very strong, producing the world’s strongest growth post-pandemic of any country. Record numbers of jobs have been created, far outdistancing the number of jobs created during the Trump Administration. Inflation and gas prices went up around the world due to supply chain issues, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and other factors, including profiteering by American businesses. Inflation rates have come down substantially since reaching historic highs in June 2022. Gas prices have also come down. Wage growth is now exceeding the rate of inflation, giving Americans more money in their pockets.

A threshold question is how much sense it makes for candidates and political parties to take credit for good economic conditions and blame opponents for bad economic conditions. Research demonstrates there are multiple reasons why Americans give too much credit and blame to the President for economic conditions:

• Federal government spending only represents a modest share of the economy (about 20%)
• The vast majority of federal spending is on entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare) not controlled by the President
• The President doesn’t alone control spending, as Congress has the “power of the purse”
• Policies don’t have immediate effects–it takes time, many months, or even years, for the effects of policies to be felt
• Finally, many economic indicators that matter to Americans are influenced by factors that neither the President nor Congress can control. “Interest rates are largely the domain of the Federal Reserve, not the president. Gas prices depend much upon factors like global demand, international supply chains, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Prices on all sorts of critical items (like housing, food, and clothing) depend on numerous factors outside the president’s control (local supply and demand, the boom-and-bust cycles of the global economy, pandemics, and wars abroad, for example).”

My own research regarding the Trump and Biden Administrations confirms that Americans give too much credit and blame to Presidents for economic conditions. I found this particularly to be the case with respect to blame for economic woes. A key reason is that the public is highly influenced by partisan narratives attributing blame. In addition, various cognitive biases come into play:

“Blaming the individual is simply far easier than reflecting upon broader external factors at play. When paired with people’s other tendencies to accept simple explanations for complex phenomena and to disproportionately focus on negative information, the notion that economic woes are due to bad decision-making by the president is all too tempting.”

In short, neither Trump nor Biden deserves full credit for the strong economies they claim to have created. Nor does Biden deserve primary blame for high inflation, gas prices, and other economic woes suffered by Americans in his first term.

As previously discussed, Biden/Democrat spending was not the sole or primary cause of high inflation. Other factors contributed, including supply chain problems associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, spending by the Trump Administration, and corporate profiteering. Gas prices have come down but remain high because they are still high around the world. US oil production is now at its highest point in history and exceeds all other countries. Wage growth lagged inflation during the first part of Biden’s term, but wage growth now exceeds the rate of inflation. Also, inflation rates have come down (currently about 3.4%), but are still above the Fed’s target rate of 2%. The Fed’s actions to increase interest rates are for the purpose of cooling the economy and reducing inflation. Neither Biden nor Trump have the authority to set interest rates.

If you continue to want to assign credit and blame, here are some facts. It’s confirmed that the current US economy is very strong, post-pandemic, the strongest in the world. The Wall Street Journal recently described it as “an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen.” The number of jobs created during the Biden Administration far exceeds the number created during the Trump Administration in its first three years (prior to the job losses due to the Covid-19 pandemic). Biden-proposed legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Chips Act, and clean energy initiatives all contributed to the strong job and wage growth.

Trump’s claims that he created the greatest economy in the history of the world have been debunked. In fact, he mostly inherited a great economy. On the other hand, during Trump’s presidency (at least until the pandemic), inflation, gas prices, interest rates, and unemployment were low. GDP (gross domestic product) growth was solid, as were the stock markets. He deserves partial credit for the good economic conditions.

Conclusions: The Trump/Republican narratives are largely untrue or misleading. However, these narratives have been embraced by a large percentage of Americans, who perceive Trump as significantly better on the economy than Biden. An October 2023 poll revealed that only 7% of Republicans and 37% of all Americans somewhat or strongly approve of Biden’s job performance on the economy.

On the other hand, Biden’s narrative that his policies produced a great economy is also overstated. He deserves partial credit for the good economic conditions.

Voters historically blame the sitting President for bad economic conditions, whether it is merited or not. Americans are indeed still suffering due to high inflation, gas prices, groceries, credit card debt, and high interest rates. Despite the fact that the economy is very strong, many Americans have a different view based on their personal finances. They are thus susceptible to hyper-partisan narratives that blame Biden and the Democrats, even though these narratives are false.

None of the narratives on the economy threaten democracy or reduce trust in American government and institutions. On the other hand, because the Trump/Republican narratives are mostly false, and because the Biden/Democrat narratives are mostly accurate, independent voters may want to reconsider their previous conclusions about Biden’s poor performance on the economy.

3. The 2020 election

Trump/Republican narratives: The 2020 presidential election was stolen by the Democrats and Joe Biden. There were illegal and fraudulent schemes regarding voter registration, mail-in voting, and voting machine irregularities. These schemes denied Trump victories in states he had otherwise won. Trump regularly calls the election “rigged” and “corrupt” noting that it’s “fake news” and a “big lie” to say that Biden won.

To protest the stealing of the election, Trump summoned and assembled a peaceful protest at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Bad actors (including Antifa and the FBI), instigated violence and property damage. The Democrats were responsible for the lack of security that allowed violence and damage to occur. Most protestors were “peaceful,” including those who pleaded guilty and were tried and convicted. Trump has called them “unbelievable patriots.” He also calls them “political prisoners” who should be pardoned.

Democrat narratives: The 2020 election was free and fair, and Biden won. Trump and the Republicans pursued extensive legal challenges to contest the results and lost every challenge. In addition, Trump sought to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election through various schemes. This included two on January 6, 2021: an attempt to have alternate slates of electors counted in recording the electoral vote, and fomenting an insurrection to invade the Capitol and prevent the counting of electoral votes.

Research: Trump and the Republicans filed 62 lawsuits to contest 2020 election results, and none were decided in their favor. In addition, Trump and Republicans pursued numerous recounts and audits, none of which overturned or significantly changed Biden’s victory in any of the states. Conservative legal luminaries released a detailed report documenting that Trump lost and Biden won the 2020 election. No court decision or audit result has found that Democrats broke the law or committed fraud. Even Newsmax, one of the most conservative media outlets, accepts the 2020 election results as legal and final:

As to the Democrat narratives that Trump illegally attempted to overturn the election, the House of Representatives created a special committee (House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol). Democrats comprised a strong majority of the Committee, and squabbles with Republican leadership resulted in the Republican members (Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney) being named by then Speaker Pelosi.

The Committee’s hearings and final report contain extensive testimony from many who worked directly with President Trump and had first-hand knowledge of the events. The Committee found detailed evidence that Trump had direct knowledge and involvement in the plan to submit and count alternate electors as well as the effort to prevent the counting of electoral votes. It offered a 17-point summary:

1. Trump lied about election fraud for the purpose of staying in power and asking for money.
2. Ignoring the rulings of over 60 federal and state courts, he plotted to overturn the election.
3. He pressured Pence to illegally refuse to certify the election.
4. He tried to corrupt and weaponize the Justice Department to keep himself in power.
5. He pressured state legislators and officials to give different election results.
6. He perpetrated the fake electors scheme.
7. He pressured members of Congress to object to real electors.
8. He approved federal court filings with fake information about voter fraud.
9. He summoned the mob and told them to march on the Capitol, knowing some were armed.
10. He tweeted negatively about Pence at 2:24 p.m. on January 6, 2021, inciting more violence.
11. He spent the afternoon watching television, despite his advisers’ pleas for him to stop the violence.
12. This was all part of a conspiracy to overturn the election.
13. Intelligence and law enforcement warned the Secret Service about Proud Boys and Oath Keepers.
14. The violence wasn’t caused by left-wing groups.
15. Intelligence didn’t know that Trump himself had plotted with John Eastman and Rudy Giuliani.
16. In advance of January 6, the Capitol Police didn’t act on their police chief’s suggestion to request backup from the National Guard.
17. On January 6, the Defense Secretary, not Trump, called the National Guard.

Republicans and Trump have condemned the Committee’s hearings and final report as “partisan political theater,” a “sham” and a “witch hunt.” As the Committee submitted its final report (December 2022), it provided four criminal referrals to the Department of Justice, which was already in the midst of conducting its own investigations. Two criminal indictments have since emerged regarding Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election–a case lodged by the Department of Justice and a case lodged by the state of Georgia. These cases will be discussed in detail in the next section, “Weaponization of Government.”

Video and other evidence of the events at the Capitol rebut that Antifa, the FBI and others were responsible for fomenting the violence and property damage. The evidence also rebuts that the protest was peaceful and nonviolent. The Democrats/Nancy Pelosi were not in charge of security. Capitol police were overwhelmed by the rioters, and didn’t purposely wave them into the Capitol. DOJ data show that more than 1,265 people have been charged with federal crimes related to the attack.  At the end of 2023, 728 defendants had pleaded guilty, while another 166 were convicted at trial. A total of 745 defendants had been sentenced. Many participants were linked to far-right extremist groups, including the Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, and Three Percenters.  

Conclusions: Trump’s narratives that he won the 2020 election and that Biden and the Democrats stole the election are false. However, these narratives have been widely embraced by Republicans and Republican leaners. Two-thirds of these voters continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. While 93% of Democrats and 58% of independents recognize Biden’s win as fair and square, only 21% of Republicans acknowledge this fact.

Tens of millions of Republicans and Republican leaners have been led to believe Trump’s lie that the Democrats and Joe Biden stole the election. Some may not want to believe it’s a lie, and some may not know that it is a lie. But this doesn’t change the fact that it’s a lie. This false narrative has had a significant effect on dividing the country and diminishing trust in American government and elections. Tens of millions of citizens have been led to believe that Biden and the Democrats broke the law and committed fraud to steal the election. They accordingly have become much more fearful and suspicious regarding the reliability of voting and their voice being heard in future elections. The lie has caused them to have disdain for Democrats, who are seen as cheating their way to victory.

To date, the judicial proceedings against Trump in Washington D.C, and Georgia remain in their early stages. Grand juries have approved multiple count indictments, and Trump has been arrested. It’s virtually certain these trials will not be completed before the election. While the evidence in the indictments is detailed and compelling, Trump is still innocent until proven guilty. As such, we can’t conclusively validate the Democrat narratives that Trump broke the law. On the other hand, the Trump/Republican narratives that the cases against Trump are “groundless,” “sham trials,” “election interference,” or “prosecutions of a political opponent” lack validation or proof. I’ll talk about this more in the next section.

4. Weaponization of government

Trump/Republican narratives: Biden ordered at least five criminal and civil cases against Trump. These cases are baseless, politically-motivated prosecutions aimed at election interference against Donald Trump. Also, Joe Biden (aka “The Biden Crime Family”) weaponizes the system to secure favorable treatment for his criminal son (Hunter Biden), family, and political allies. Also, Hunter Biden’s recent conviction on gun charges is just a distraction to avoid prosecuting more serious criminal activity involving President Biden and his family.

Biden/Democrat narratives: Trump and the Republicans are the ones who have repeatedly weaponized government. Republicans have created a “weaponization” committee in Congress to pursue false charges against Biden, his family, and other Democrats. Trump has also promised to prosecute and jail Joe Biden and others when he returns to office.

Research: The Trump/Republican charges of weaponization against Biden are so numerous that they can’t be individually addressed in this article. Here’s a review of these charges, however.

To date, no direct evidence has been provided to prove Biden directed or orchestrated any of the five criminal and civil actions filed against Trump. PolitiFact found the accusation to be false. Trump, Republicans, and conservative media bring up meetings between officials connected to Biden and the court cases, but there has yet to be any confirming evidence (phone calls, documents, text messages, etc.) showing Biden directed or orchestrated these actions. Also, the research does not validate that the various court actions are “baseless” “sham trials” or “witch hunts.” Instead, all of the cases proceeded with extensive pleadings and grand jury investigations. The one trial proceeding to a verdict found Trump guilty on 34 felony counts.

A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll reveals most Americans think the charges against Trump are serious and that he should be charged with a crime. Democrats and Independents especially find the charges serious, while substantial majorities of Republicans believe the charges aren’t serious and Trump shouldn’t be charged.

In a more recent poll, 51% of all respondents (including 83% of Republicans, 50% of Independents, and 22% of Democrats) felt the hush money trial was politically motivated.

My research also revealed that weaponization charges are all too often simply partisan attacks. Most the time, the people leveling the charges are not under oath or any other obligation to tell the truth. Examples include statements made at rallies, accusations made by members of Congress, or charges leveled by right and left wing media. These charges are often investigated by Congressional committees that are controlled by either Republicans or Democrats. The committees operate without rules of evidence similar to courts. Members of the committees are not under oath, and can act in a highly partisan manner. Finally, some weaponization charges aren’t even investigated. Rather, the charges are just relentlessly repeated, using the “firehose of falsehood propaganda technique” to get the public to believe the accusations.

As to the Trump/Republican narrative that the Hunter Biden conviction is just a distraction from more serious crime by the Biden Crime Family, no proof has been provided. Various investigations by the Republican-controlled House weaponization committee have not yielded any criminal referrals or specific proof of criminal activity. No criminal prosecutions been launched against Biden by any state.

Finally, Trump has made conflicting statements on whether he engages or will engage in weaponization. He claims that he never said, “Lock her up!” as to Hillary Clinton’s alleged criminality; but video clips totally refute this claim. Trump has also said that, if reelected, he would have every right to go after his opponents who orchestrated and brought criminal charges against him.

Conclusions: There is no proof that Biden directed or orchestrated the criminal or civil actions against Trump. The criminal cases are not meritless, sham trials. Substantial majorities of Americans believe the charges are serious and that Trump should be charged. Nonetheless, a substantial percentage of voters, especially Republicans and about half of independents see at least some of the cases as politically motivated.

As to weaponization charges, Trump and the Republicans have yet to prove in a court of law that President Biden is guilty of any charges. Findings of the Republican-controlled House Weaponization Committee, like the findings of the Democrat-controlled Select Committee to investigate January 6th, are not conclusive and are subject to partisan conclusions.

The Trump/Republican narratives have led tens of millions of Americans to falsely believe that President Biden orchestrated the criminal actions against Trump. They also falsely believe that Biden weaponized government to persecute Trump and Republicans, and to protect and promote himself and his family’s interests, These narratives have led tens of millions of Americans to falsely believe the President is corrupt and is guilty of harming his political rival in order to win the 2024 election. These Americans thus believe their democracy is compromised and under threat. They are fearful. They are also angry at Joe Biden and Democrats, further increasing political division in America. And, their trust in American government and institutions is diminished by the notion that a politician could get away with going after his political rivals and committing crimes.

The Trump/Republican narratives have thus unduly increased division in America, stoked anger and fear for purely political purposes, and wrongfully diminished trust in government.

5. Threat to democracy

Trump/Republican narratives: Biden and the Democrats are a threat to democracy because they have weaponized government against Trump and Republicans (see prior discussion). More generally, Biden and the Democrats have vastly expanded the reach and control of government.  It is the Democrats and the “deep state” who have weaponized government and destroyed American freedoms.  It is the “un-fireable” federal employees who assert their own objectives—rather than those of the president—in governing.  Thus, dictatorial and authoritarian actions are necessary to undo this harm.

Biden/Democrat narratives: Trump has embraced dictatorial and authoritarian behaviors, and both he and the conservative right are proposing additional dictatorial actions should Trump win the presidency. Democracy is on the ballot–just read what they are actually saying. Their democracy-threatening actions are set forth in “Project 2025“, a book published by the Heritage Foundation, and in “Agenda 47“, a link on Trump’s campaign website.

Research: I have written extensively on this topic in a 4-part series described below. Overall, my concern is that the political parties are in an ever-escalating race to gain control and enact their agendas. The latest strategy for winning and controlling is to embrace dictatorial and authoritarian governance. Since the parties are so opposed and unable to agree, each party instead pursues ways for its President and Administration to act unilaterally.

• American Democracy: Is Dictatorship on the Horizon? Part 1 describes the ever-escalating strategies Republicans and Democrats are using to gain control and enact their agendas. It’s clear that dictatorial and authoritarian strategies are being pursued more often; and it’s clear that Trump and Republicans are especially embracing such strategies.
• Expanding Presidential Power: A Close Look at Proposals from the Right. Part 2 analyzes a list of the 10 most provocative recommendations coming from Trump and the Right. I determine whether the action can be imposed unilaterally, whether it is vulnerable to legal challenge, whether it’s consistent with the Constitution’s separation of powers, and what actual threats are presented. I conclude that most either cannot be imposed unilaterally or are vulnerable to legal challenge. However, a few of the recommendations present a real threat to democracy because they could be imposed unilaterally, have a reasonable chance of surviving legal challenge, and yet are inconsistent with the Constitution’s separation of powers.
• Expanding Presidential Power: Has the Right Made its Case? Part 3 examines whether the Right has made its case that an extraordinary expansion of presidential powers is necessary to save the country from harms inflicted by Democrats and an out-of-control federal government. For the most part I conclude that Republicans haven’t proved that Democrats are responsible for the harms being alleged. Neither have they proved, for the most part, that extraordinary action is necessary to remedy these harms. Most important, I suggest the Right might want to reconsider the wisdom of its approach because expanded presidential powers will be available to Democrat presidents as well.
• Saving Our Democracy: It’s Not About Dictatorship, It’s About Governing Part 4, urges readers to come to their own conclusions about the kind of America they want. Currently, Democrats and Republicans blame one another for failures and attempt to impose their agendas on one another and the American people.  Each time a different party captures the White House or Congress, it attempts to undo the policymaking of the prior administration.  Will the recommendations exacerbate or reduce this problem?  What is the logical outcome if each president has expanded power to act unilaterally? I suggest that rather than continuing the escalation in tactics to win and seize control of policymaking, a far better path is to concentrate on bipartisan policymaking that serves all or most Americans.

The weight of evidence shows that Trump and the Republicans are embracing dictatorial and authoritarian strategies. They have yet to prove that Biden and the Democrats are weaponizing government or are pursuing dictatorial strategies. Nonetheless, it’s clear that perceptions of voters are very much influenced by the partisan narratives. An October 2023 PRRI poll found:

“Nine in ten Democrats (91%) and nearly six in ten independents (57%), but just 22% of Republicans, see the reelection of Trump as a threat to American democracy. By contrast, majorities of Republicans (86%) and independents (56%) agree that the reelection of Biden poses a threat to American democracy, compared with just 17% of Democrats.”

When we look at overall voter perceptions, 57% of Americans see the reelection of Trump as a threat democracy, while a slightly smaller majority (53%) also agree the reelection of Biden poses a threat to democracy.

Conclusions: Trump and the Republicans are currently proposing dictatorial and authoritarian actions they intend to take when they return to power. Just skim Project 2025 and Agenda 47 and see for yourself. Several of these recommendations are inconsistent with the Constitution’s separation of powers and its vision of a limited federal government. Should Republicans capture both Houses of Congress, in addition to the White House, these recommendations become much more viable. Given the conservative leanings of the Supreme Court, it’s possible more of these recommendations will survive legal challenge. Consequently, Trump does present a threat to democracy.

Many Americans, especially Republicans and over half of independents believe the Trump/Republican narratives that Biden is a threat to democracy. These narratives have yet to be substantiated and proven, but they are nonetheless believed. While Republicans may not be inclined to change their minds, independents may wish to reconsider their previous conclusions that Biden weaponized government and is a threat to democracy.

6. Illegal immigration

Trump/Republican narratives: Biden created a “disaster” at the southern border. Biden’s “wide open borders” have precipitated an “invasion” of illegal immigrants who are “poisoning the blood of our country.” Over 10 million illegal immigrants have been allowed to pour into the country since Biden has been in office. Trump also says Biden “is letting millions of people from jails, from prisons, from insane asylums, from mental institutions, drug dealers pour in.” Trump dubs it a “migrant crime wave.”

In addition, Trump says the illegals are being signed up to vote (“That’s why they are allowing these people to come in — people that don’t speak our language — they are signing them up to vote”). He also says Biden’s border policies are a “conspiracy to overthrow the United States.” In addition, record amounts of drugs (especially fentanyl) are coming across the border, resulting in record overdose deaths. Finally, the the record number of “illegal immigrants” during Biden’s term, contrasts with the very secure border under Trump. He notes, “We proudly handed the Biden administration the most secure border in history. All they had to do was keep this smooth-running system on autopilot.”

Biden/Democrat narratives: Action by Congress (statutes and funding) is necessary to fix the problems at the border. Existing laws are being fully enforced to control illegal immigration. The main problem is that under current federal law, migrants from around the world are unrestricted in seeking asylum in the United States. Seeking asylum is a legal path to entry, and applicants aren’t classified as illegal immigrants. They can show up at the border and turn themselves in, or they can get caught trying to cross illegally. Either way, they can apply for asylum, a process that takes years to adjudicate because of court backlogs. Finally, as to those not seeking asylum, millions of migrants have been apprehended, removed and expelled pursuant to law.

As to record numbers of migrants being “encountered” at the border, the Biden Administration can’t simply deport or deny entry to those seeking asylum. Congressional action is necessary to enable the President to close the border, change procedures regarding asylum, and provide funding to address court backlogs and ensure enforcement. Executive actions, such as those taken by Trump and the Biden Administration, are too vulnerable to legal challenge, and can’t alone solve the problem.

Research: I recently completed an analysis of the situation at the southern border, comparing efforts of the Trump and Biden Administrations and what it would take to address the problems. Here’s a summary.

Trump definitely took a hard line on illegal immigration. However, early in his term, hundreds of thousands of migrants chose to take the path of “asylum” rather than being subject to immediate removal for illegal entry. By fiscal year 2019 (Oct 1, 2018-Sept 30, 2019) there were a record number of “encounters” at the southern border. Trump complained that migrants were “gaming the system” by seeking asylum. He took several executive actions to address the problem. Most of his executive orders were challenged in court; some were blocked, and some survived, often after lengthy legal proceedings.

Early in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic hit. All around the world people stopped travelling. In addition, using public health emergency powers to prevent the spread of diseases, the Trump Administration adopted “Title 42.” This temporary policy allowed immediate expulsion of illegal crossers and asylum seekers. Not surprisingly, the number of “encounters” declined and the number of individuals “expelled” or “removed” increased significantly.

As Biden assumed office in 2021, the world was on its way to addressing the pandemic. Worldwide, migration patterns started to rebound. Also, the American economy was recovering strongly. Many migrants were attracted to America, knowing there was a different President and that Title 42 was coming to an end. Not surprisingly, the number of “encounters” at the southern border skyrocketed, as did the number of migrants seeking asylum. Biden called for action by Congress to provide options in lieu of Title 42, for asylum reforms, and resources for enforcement and court backlogs. Democrats and Republicans couldn’t agree on legislation, however. The Biden Administration also pursued a package of executive actions for border enforcement, some of which were modeled after Trump policies. Again, many of these policies were challenged in court.

During this time, “encounters” reached record levels in fiscal years 2022 and 2023. By late 2023, a small group of Senate Republicans and Democrats began negotiating a legislative compromise aimed at asylum reform, authority to close the border, and resources for enforcement and removal of court backlogs. The deal was struck in February 2024, and Biden quickly supported the action. He said he would immediately use the new authority to close the border and drastically reduce the number of encounters. In February of 2024, at the urging of Trump, Republicans in the Senate and House rejected the compromise.

Since then, in early June, the Biden Administration adopted additional executive actions to allow asylum claims to be suspended when border crossings reach specified numbers. The executive order enables the President to close the border and drastically reduce the number of “encounters.” However, the order has already been challenged in court on the grounds that it conflicts with statutes and treaties providing rights and due process to those seeking asylum.

As to Trump/Republican narratives, it’s false and misleading to say Biden has a policy of “open borders.” Millions of migrants caught illegally crossing have been removed during Biden’s term. As to unauthorized migrants living in the United States, hundreds of thousands per year have been removed and deported, especially those committing crimes. It’s also false that millions of immigrants are coming illegally from jails and mental facilities. PolitiFact has debunked this claim as false and ridiculous. Undocumented immigrants don’t have higher crime rates than American citizens. The “migrant crime wave” has not been substantiated. Further, PolitiFact has debunked Trump’s claim that Democrats promote illegal immigration in order to sign them up to vote. Remarks about “poisoning the blood of our country” harken back to Hitler’s reasoning in Mein Kamph that the mixing of races causes great cultures to perish because of “blood poisoning.”

Finally, in terms of public perception, Americans are critical of Biden’s job performance on illegal immigration. A June 2024 Economist/YouGov poll reveals that 29% of Democrats, 67% of Independents, and 92% of Republicans disapprove of the way Biden is handling immigration. When citing reasons for disapproval of Biden’s job performance, a recent Gallup Poll shows that illegal immigration is the problem most often mentioned. Further, Americans see illegal immigration as one of the country’s biggest problems, and currently a crisis. Republicans consistently rate it as a bigger problem than Democrats, with Independents in between.

Conclusions: Of all the Trump/Republican narratives and metrics on immigration, the public is most swayed by the huge increase in border crossings since Biden came into office. A recent poll shows that 52% of Americans (and 70% of Republicans) buy into the notion of an “invasion.” Unfortunately, the Republican narrative conflates “encounters” (which is a count of migrants who have been detained or apprehended by federal authorities), with “illegal immigrants” (which is a count of migrants who illegally enter and remain in the country). The Trump/Republican narrative takes the total number of “encounters” under Biden, and then adds the number of “got away’s” estimated by the Border Patrol, which adds up to about 10 million. The narrative thus declares that more than 10 million migrants have illegally entered and remain in the country since Biden came into office. PolitiFact debunks this narrative. In fact, the vast majority of migrants recorded as “encounters” have been apprehended, detained, and processed by immigration authorities. Millions have been expelled and deported.

The Trump/Republican narratives also paint a very negative and inaccurate portrait of migrants. They are not disproportionately criminals, lunatics, drug dealers, sex traffickers, and the like. They are not legally entitled to vote in US elections; nor is there proof that they are doing so in big numbers. They don’t take away jobs from Americans; rather, they mostly take jobs Americans don’t want. As to “poisoning the blood of our country,” in the history of America the same has been said of the Irish, Italians, Germans, Chinese, Japanese, Jews, and others.

Also, the Trump/Republican narratives take advantage of the fact that illegal immigration is a complex subject that is poorly understood by the public. Biden and the Democrats have had difficulty putting their side of the story into digestible narratives. They have not explained how asylum works and distinguished it from illegal immigration. They have not explained why a major increase in “encounters” does not equate with a major increase in migrants illegally entering and remaining in the country. They have not explained that Title 42 was an emergency public health policy that had to end, despite skyrocketing “encounters.” And, they have not explained why legislative change is necessary, and why executive actions alone can’t do the job.

If you are leaning towards voting for Trump on account of illegal immigration, it’s important to ask whether he put winning in November ahead of addressing the border crisis. If Trump wins, the law on asylum is still on the books. These laws allow migrants from around the world to freely apply, even if they have been caught trying to enter illegally. Applicants will still have the same due process rights, and the huge court backlog will still remain, with cases taking five years. Trump, of course, will take executive actions to get around these constraints. But the courts have rejected many such previous actions by both Trump and Biden. Trump could have addressed all these constraints by allowing legislation that many Republicans supported. Instead, he chose to kill the bill. The bipartisan compromise he rejected would have given him clear authority to close the border. It would also have revised asylum requirements and procedures, and provided funding to address court backlogs and provide more enforcement. Why else would he reject such strong and clear authority to address the border crisis unless he feared Biden would use the new authority to fix the problems at the border?

7. Gun violence, gun control, and 2nd Amendment rights

Trump/Republican narratives: Biden and Democrats want to take away your guns and deny your 2nd Amendment rights. Gun controls don’t work–they neither prevent criminals from obtaining guns nor prevent crime. Blaming the gun is not the answer; rather, evil people do evil things. We need to prevent criminals and the mentally ill from having access to guns. The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun (more gun ownership deters crime). Gun control laws give too much power to the government and may result in government tyranny and the government taking away all guns from citizens.

Biden/Democrat narratives: “No child should be afraid to go to school or walk around their neighborhood. No spouse should be afraid to come home at night. No American should be afraid to go to work or their place of worship. And no human being should be afraid to go to a shopping mall or baseball field, nightclub or movie theater, concert or college campus.” (Democratic Party Platform)

Too many Americans are injured or killed due to gun violence. Reasonable gun controls are both necessary and effective in preventing gun violence. We can reduce gun violence while respecting the rights of responsible gun owners. We should expand and strengthen background checks for those who want to purchase a firearm – because it shouldn’t be easier to get a gun than a driver’s license. Guns shouldn’t fall into the hands of terrorists (whether they be domestic or foreign), domestic abusers, other violent criminals, or those who have shown signs of danger toward themselves or others.

Research: While the carnage of gun violence continues to climb, Americans remain divided on key aspects of gun control.  Here’s a sampling from a recent FiveThirtyEight poll:

• 37% of Republican and 83% of Democratic respondents said they “strongly” or “somewhat” favor banning assault weapons.
• 24% of Democratic and 66% of Republican respondents said they “strongly” or “somewhat” favor arming K-12 teachers. 
• 34% of Republicans and 87% of Democratic respondents said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident that stricter gun laws would reduce mass shootings.
• 9% of Democratic and 39% of Republican respondents said that the right of people to own guns is more important than protecting people from gun violence.

And, in a Pew Research Center poll  (April 20, 2021):

• 81% of Dem/lean Dem and 20% of Rep/lean Rep said that gun laws should be more strict.
• 73% of Dem/lean Dem and 20% of Rep/lean Rep said that there would be fewer mass shootings if it was harder for people to legally obtain guns.

Increasingly, however, wider majorities of Americans see gun violence as a major problem:

If you spend time examining the gun laws of the 50 states, you’ll see a huge variation.  Roughly half of states place a very high priority on protecting 2^nd Amendment rights, while the other half place a high priority on preventing gun violence.  As you might guess, states that zealously protect 2^nd Amendment rights tend to be Republican states, while states that put strong attention to preventing gun violence tend to be Democratic states. 

Let me characterize the two philosophies. As of December 2022, some 25 states are “permitless carry states.” This means they allow people who may never have passed a background check or fired a gun to carry hidden, loaded guns in public as soon as they buy them.  About half the states have also adopted very strong “stand your ground” laws. These laws allow someone to use deadly force in public, even if they know they could safely avoid violence by retreating from the incident. States that zealously protect 2^nd Amendment rights also place no restrictions on assault rifles or high-capacity magazines.  Nor have they adopted red flag laws (extreme risk laws).  Instead, they do the minimum required under federal law.  

On the other hand, the other half of the states give strong attention to preventing gun violence.  Some of these states ban or highly regulate assault rifles and high-capacity magazines.  Open or concealed carry of firearms is very limited, as are “stand your ground” laws.  These states also have universal background checks and waiting periods, along with robust extreme risk protection laws, safe storage laws, and even regulation of ammunition. 

Recent research sheds critical light on whether gun controls actually work. A 2024 study by Everytown compared gun policy across the country, scoring every state on the strength of its gun laws and comparing it with its rate of gun violence. In states that have taken action to pass gun safety laws, fewer people die by gun violence. And, states that have failed to put basic protections into place—”national failures” on Everytown’s scale—have a rate of gun violence two and a half times higher than the states that are national gun safety leaders. The Giffords Law Center conducts and updates similar research and comes to the same conclusion: “States with strong gun laws have fewer gun deaths. It’s not a theory anymore—it’s a fact.”

Conclusions: The Republican narratives are false in stating that gun control laws don’t work. Also, it’s probably fearmongering to say, “President Biden is pushing politically divisive measures that could seriously damage our right to keep and bear arms without making the nation any safer.” There is no likelihood that Congress will pass any law that would “seriously damage the right to keep and bear arms”; and, if it did so, the Supreme Court would probably strike it down.

Biden supports a ban on assault rifles and high capacity magazines; and he also supports expanded background checks. These stances are in step with the views of the American people. Pew Research reports 64% of all Americans (including 42% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats) favor banning assault rifles, and 66% of all Americans (including 45% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats) favor banning high capacity magazines. Gallup reports that 92% of Americans favor background checks on all gun purchases.

Put simply, if you believe like most Americans that gun violence is a very big problem, you should lean towards Biden on this issue. Gun control laws do work; and the gun control measures advocated by Biden and the Democrats are supported by wide majorities of Americans. If you oppose any further gun control measures being adopted at the federal level, regardless of increasing gun violence and deaths, and regardless of strong public support, you should lean towards Trump on this issue.

8. Crime, especially violent crime

Trump/Republican narratives: Since Joe Biden took office, crime rates have skyrocketed across the country. “Joe Biden and the ‘Defund the Police’ Democrats have turned our once great cities into cesspools of bloodshed and crime. There’s never been anything like it.” (Trump). Biden’s disaster at the border has created a “migrant crime wave.”

Biden/Democrat narratives: President Biden does not support “Defund the Police.” He has worked with Congress to increase law enforcement funding, including the American Rescue Plan Act, and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (gun control, and funding for prevention programs). Violent crime hasn’t increased; in fact, it’s near a 50-year low.

Research: Violent crime has not skyrocketed since Biden has been in office. In fact, violent crime is near a 50-year low. Republican narratives have been debunked by PolitiFact. Pew Research also documents that most crime rates have declined substantially since 1990. Further, Trump’s claims of a migrant crime wave are not supported by data.

Biden does not support “Defunding the Police, and instead has done the opposite.

Media coverage could affect voters’ perceptions about violent crime, too, as could public statements from political candidates and elected officials. Republican candidates, in particular, emphasized crime in the November 2022 midterms, and are doing so again for November 2024.

Also, Pew Research found the public often tends to believe that crime is up, even when the data shows it is down. In 22 of 26 Gallup surveys conducted since 1993, at least six-in-ten U.S. adults said there was more crime nationally than there was the year before, despite the general downward trend in the national violent crime rate during most of that period. Another Gallup survey (October 2022) found that people perceived crime to be up both locally and nationally, even though it wasn’t. Partisan perceptions over time reveal that Republicans especially believe crime has gone up locally and nationally since Biden has been in office. Below are the partisan perceptions as to national crime going back to 1989.

Conclusions: Many Republicans and a sizable share of Independents falsely believe that crime, especially violent crime, has gone up under Biden. Republicans also buy into the notion of a “migrant crime wave” and Biden wanting to “Defund the Police.” Tens of millions of Americans have thus been misled by Republican narratives. The facts before you, as you consider your vote, are that violent crime is down, the migrant crime wave does not exist, and President Biden supports more funding for police.

9. Abortion

Trump/Republican narratives: Trump claims credit for appointing the three Supreme Court justices who were critical in overturning Roe v. Wade. He said, “I’m the one that got rid of Roe v. Wade, and everybody said that was an impossible thing to do. I put on three Supreme Court justices.” According to the narratives, the Supreme Court should never have established federal protections and regulations regarding abortion. Instead, the individual states should control these policies. States should have the latitude to totally prohibit abortion, including exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. Or, states can choose to make abortion legal during specified periods after conception; and they can also provide exceptions. They can also ban or regulate access to abortion medications (mifepristone).

Some Republicans and conservative organizations call for Congress to enact a total federal ban on abortion, including access to abortion medications. Others argue, falsely that Democrats are pushing to make abortion legal at any time, up to the moment of birth. Others call for Congress to enact policy allowing abortion up to a specified time, with limited exceptions. Trump has occasionally endorsed the concept of federal policy on the matter, but has said he would not sign a national abortion ban. I exclude these narratives because Trump and Republicans are far from united on these proposals.

Biden/Democrat narratives: Trump is responsible for the repeal of Roe v. Wade. Women across the country are increasingly living under cruel abortion bans, most of which have no exceptions for rape or incest. Trump is the reason why one-third of American women can’t access reproductive care. And, Trump and the Republicans could go further in a new term, by targeting birth control, in vitro fertilization, medication abortion or by pursuing a nationwide abortion ban. Finally, Biden has proposed Congressional action to restore Roe v. Wade: “If you, the American people, send me a Congress that supports the right to choose, I promise you I will restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again.”

Research: Roe v. Wade, a 1972 Supreme Court decision, established a federal (Constitutional) right to abortion. All states had to conform their abortion laws to this decision. The Court divided pregnancy into three trimesters. The choice to end a pregnancy in the first trimester was solely up to the woman. In the second trimester the government (state) could regulate abortion, although not ban it, in order to protect the health of the mother. In the third trimester, the state could prohibit abortion to protect a fetus that could survive outside the womb, except when the mother’s health was in danger.

CNN reports, “Nearly two dozen US states have banned or limited access to the procedure. States where abortion is most limited report higher rates of material and infant mortality, as well as greater economic insecurity.”  And NPR reports there are 14 states with total bans on abortion (with very limited exceptions). A few more states – including Florida, have six week bans; and another half dozen states have restrictions that limit abortion after 12, 15, 18 or 22 weeks of pregnancy.

PolitiFact has reported as “True” the claim that one-third of American women of reproductive age live in a state with an abortion ban.

In March 2024, the Guttmacher Institute reported that the total number of abortions in America actually increased in 2023, despite abortion bans. Yet in the states that ban or severely restrict abortion access, the number of abortions dropped drastically. This suggests that women in restrictive states are gaining access to abortion by going to other states.

While more and more states have prohibited or severely restricted abortion, a wide majority of Americans have long held the view that abortion, “should be legal in all or most cases.” For 2024, Pew Research found that 63% of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 36% believe it should be illegal in all or most cases. 85% of Dem/Dem leaners felt is should be legal in all or most cases, while 41% of Reps/Rep leaners felt it should be legal in all or most cases. An April 2024 Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that 54% of Americans (and 56% of registered voters) want Congress to pass “a law that keeps abortion as legal and accessible as it was nationwide under Roe v. Wade.” Finally, the Pew Research report mentioned above also found that Americans living in states with abortion bans or restrictions are more likely to say it should be easier than it currently is to obtain an abortion.

Conclusions: Biden and the Democrats are correct in saying Trump is responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. In the two years since the federal protections have been wiped away, about half of the states have banned or limited access to abortion. These abrupt policy changes have presented challenges to women seeking reproductive care in these states. While these women may not have access to abortion in these states, the overall increase in total abortions suggests they have gained access to the procedure in other states.

Regardless of who wins the presidency, it is extremely unlikely that there will be the votes in Congress to either restore Roe v. Wade or adopt a total ban on abortions. If Biden wins, he and the Democrats will work to ensure that women in restrictive states have access to reproductive care. If Trump wins, he and the Republicans will work to ensure the states retain full authority to adopt their own abortion policies.

On the other hand, the next President will probably appoint at least one Supreme Court justice. The Supreme Court could have a lot to say on abortion policy. For this reason and others, independent voters with very strong views on either “pro life” or “pro choice” may be tempted to vote for President based on this single issue.

My advice, notwithstanding this temptation, is that independent voters should consider all of the narratives before deciding. It could be that the abortion issue will end up tipping the scales in your decision. But it’s also possible that your review of the full array of narratives will convince you to reject a candidate and party that consistently lies, misleads, divides, and undermines trust with its narratives.

Research: Overall, the contrast between Biden and Trump on climate policy is eye-popping. Biden calls global warming an “existential threat,” and in his first term finalized more than 100 new environmental regulations aimed at cutting air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, restricting toxic chemicals, and conserving public lands and waters. Biden has secured historic funding toward climate action through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been allocated to enable climate resilience and weatherization, a national network of EV charging stations, clean energy and grid-related investments, EV purchase incentives, and a host of other renewable energy subsidies.

By comparison, Trump frequently calls climate change a “hoax.” His administration weakened or wiped out more than 125 environmental rules and policies over four years. Trump’s focus is more on the American economy and energy independence. He opposes Biden’s climate actions (turning away from fossil fuels and gas powered cars, and transitioning to EV’s) because he contends it would hurt the American economy and threaten our energy independence.

In opposing Biden’s policies and climate change in general, Trump’s narratives are often false and/or misleading. Despite his and the oil industry’s complaints, the United States is now producing more oil than any country ever has, pumping nearly 13 million barrels per day on average in 2023. ExxonMobil and Chevron, the largest U.S. energy companies, reported their biggest annual profits in a decade last year. Trump claims to have achieved energy independence during his term, which Biden lost. But this is not true. Notes Scientific American:

“In reality, it’s an open question whether the U.S. achieved energy independence under Biden or Trump, because of the term’s varying definitions. One definition holds that energy independence occurs when the United States produces more energy than it consumes. That allows for some energy imports. Under those terms, both Biden and Trump achieved energy independence.”

Trump criticizes Biden’s “EV mandate” when, in fact, the policy does not do so. Biden’s rules require automakers to reduce emissions from car tailpipes, but they don’t mandate a particular technology such as EV’s.

Trump is also vastly off in his statements as to the rise in sea levels. He has said that in the next 300 years they will only rise by 1/8th inch. The federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) notes the global sea level is currently rising at about 1/8th of an inch per year.

Finally, Trump’s low regard for climate change is reflected in his willingness to scrap Biden’s policies in exchange for campaign donations. At a gathering of oil CEO’s at Mar-a-Lago, he proposed a $1 billion deal. In return for raising $1 billion to return him to the White House, he vowed to immediately reverse dozens of President Biden’s environmental rules and policies and stop new ones from being enacted.

The fact that Trump has so little regard for climate change might not be a problem if it was just a theory and the situation wasn’t deteriorating. But the science is real, and the climate change is getting worse. The latest National Climate Assessment, which comes out every four to five years, was released in November 2023. Overall, the U.S. is warming about 60% faster than the world as a whole. We regularly suffer costly weather disasters and will face even bigger problems in the future. A September 2023 survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found about 9 in 10 Americans (87%) said they’d experienced at least one extreme weather event in the past five years — drought, extreme heat, severe storms, wildfires or flooding. The impacts of extreme climate events are costing the U.S. an estimated $150 billion each year.

The world is also wildly off track in meeting its goals. Global warming surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past 12 months for the first time on record, new data shows, breaching a critical threshold that, if it continues, will push the limits of life on Earth to adapt.

Finally, the oil, gas, coal, and petroleum products we use to power our buildings, fuel our cars, and manufacture plastics is responsible for over 75 percent of global warming. Addressing climate change requires us to transition away from an economy that so dominantly runs on fossil fuels. 

When it comes to public opinion, the American people are more in line with Biden and the Democrats. Pew Research surveyed the views of Americans and found two-thirds of US adults (67%) say the country should prioritize developing renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. Only 32% favored giving priority to expanding the production of oil, coal and natural gas.

The American people don’t want to completely phase out fossil fuels; rather, they favor a mix of energy sources. More than two-thirds of adults (68%) say the country should use a mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels and renewables. Only three-in-ten adults (31%) say the US should completely phase out oil, coal, and natural gas. Americans also offer broad support for international engagement on climate change: 74% say they support U.S. participation in international efforts to reduce the effects of climate change.

Finally, a substantial majority of Americans see climate change as a major threat, although there is a partisan divide. 54% of US adults and 78% of Dems/lean Dem see climate change as a major threat. Only 23% of Reps/lean Rep share this view.

Conclusions: Trump and the Republicans largely deny the threat of climate change/global warming. Yet the science has been proven and the world and U.S. situations are getting worse. Climate related weather events are increasing, and costing us $150 billion a year. Biden and the Democrats are not proposing to completely phase out fossil fuels. Rather, they are trying to incentivize and grow clean energy sources; and in so doing are attempting to transition from an economy that runs on fossil fuels to an economy that runs on clean and renewable energy sources. Further, they understand climate change is a global problem, which requires cooperative efforts on an international level.

If you believe that climate change is not real and that we will always have enough fossil fuels to run our economy, you will probably lean towards voting for Trump on this issue. But what happens if you’re wrong, and climate change causes irreparable harm to the county and the world? And what’s wrong with developing a diverse array of energy sources, especially clean ones? Thus, if you believe climate change in real and we need to transition to cleaner energy sources while rebuilding our economy, you will probably lean towards voting for Biden on this issue.

Summary

The review you just completed applies research to validate and critique approximately 100 partisan narratives currently being used by Trump, Biden, and the political parties. By considering the narratives for each of the ten issue areas, I’m betting you found some areas where are inclined to vote for Biden, and some where you are inclined to vote for Trump. The job you have remaining is to put all of these assessments together and pick the most worthy candidate. Narratives that are true can be relied upon, while narratives that are false should be dismissed. Also, how do you feel about candidates and parties if they consistently lie, distort, divide, and undermine trust via their narratives? Finally, you need to weigh your conclusions as to the respective areas. You may find that for this time in history, certain issue areas are far more important than others. Give more weight to issues areas most important to you and to the country.

To help you with putting all the assessments together and picking the most worthy candidate I’ll leave you with what I gained from my comprehensive review.

The vast majority of the narratives authored by Trump and the Republicans are false, misleading, or unproven. Many of these narratives are also divisive, and undermine trust in government when they declare outright, without evidence, that government and government officials have broken laws. Yet, despite these defects, many of these narratives are believed by majorities or substantial majorities of independents. Without doing this comprehensive review of the narratives, I would not have been able to gain this insight. I realize my conclusions may be dismissed as partisan and biased; but I stand behind them as objective and justified. And, of course, you are free to draw you own conclusions based on your own research.

On the other hand, the vast majority of narratives coming from Biden and the Democrats are largely true and backed by evidence and proof. They certainly can be criticized for being hyper-partisan and sometimes misleading. But when stacked against the Trump/Republican narratives, the Biden/Democrat narratives are far more truthful, supported by evidence, and straightforward. Despite these attributes, I found numerous instances when majorities or substantial majorities of independents chose instead to believe the problematic narratives of Trump and the Republicans. I believe many independents will re-evaluate their conclusions if they decide to scrutinize and validate what Trump and the Republicans have been saying to them.

What I also gained from my review is that the policy positions in the narratives from Biden and the Democrats tend to reflect the views of majorities (and sometimes substantial majorities) of Americans. Take, for instance, policy positions on gun control, abortion, climate change, and the 2020 election results being a free and fair. Americans want more gun control, want to restore Roe v. Wade, see climate change as a major threat, and believe the 2020 election was free and fair. On the other hand, policy positions in the Trump/Republican narratives are mostly supported by large majorities of Republicans. The major exceptions are narratives related to the economy, illegal immigration, and Biden’s fitness for office. On these issues, substantial majorities of Americans agree with the Trump/Republican narratives. While independents could legitimately be concerned about voting for Biden because of his age and mental fitness, I believe many independents will reassess their conclusions on illegal immigration and the economy after they validate those narratives.

In casting my vote for President, I will discount or dismiss narratives that are false, misleading, or unproven. I will not give credence to a narrative simply because it is endlessly repeated. I also believe in attaching consequences to falsehoods and baseless narratives that cause me to lose faith and trust in my country. I will not vote for or contribute to a candidate or political party who persistently lies to me, divides the country, and undermines my trust in government. And, finally, I plan to give significant weight to where the majority of Americans stand on the issues addressed in the narratives. I believe it’s important to pick a President whose views and narratives are consonant with the views of strong majorities of Americans. I won’t vote for a President who ignores the will of the majority, and instead seeks to impose his will or the will of a minority.

And, to all of America’s independent voters who choose to join me in taking a hard look at the full array of narratives, thank you for caring about your country!