Part 2 of a 3-Part Series

In this article (Part 2 of the series) we examine the shift in public opinion to get tough on immigration.  At least 54% of Americans now support mass deportations. For the first time since 2001, more than half of Americans (55%) believe legal immigration should be decreased.  And 42% of Americans view the undocumented as as a major threat to the American democratic system and rule of law.

Why are Americans now more circumspect about immigration and receptive to taking tough actions?  Is there evidence and justification to support cracking down?  Or have we been led astray, like many other times in the past?  We’ll answer these questions by identifying and distinguishing legitimate and illegitimate reasons for acting.  This review will help us in our analysis of the current situation. In Part 3 of the series we’ll assess the legitimacy of the narratives and proposals coming from Trump and the Republicans.

Let’s start by examining the increase in legal and illegal immigration to the US and other world countries.  If the numbers have surged beyond the capacity of a country to absorb them, this makes it reasonable to at least consider whether restrictions should be imposed.

The number of legal immigrants in the US surged since 1970, going from about 8 million to 48 million; and their share of the population has increased from about 5% to nearly 15%.

The chart below from the Migration Policy Institute depicts the dramatic increase in legal immigrants in the US over the past 50-plus years.  As of 2023, there are about 48 million legal immigrants in the US. This number constitutes about 15% of our population. The chart also depicts a steady increase in the 1850 to 1910 timeframe, with immigrants comprising nearly 15% of the population. Federal immigration quotas and restrictions were enacted around 1920.  Levels declined thereafter for 50 years before starting to move sharply upward in 1970. 

In the current worldwide context, forced displacement of people is at an all-time high, reaching 114 million by the end of 2023.  People are being driven from their home countries by civil and international conflicts, economic problems, climate change, crime, and persecution. In response, developed nations, including many in Europe, are emphasizing deterrence strategies to stem the flow of migrants, and particularly asylees, to their countries. Thus, the United States is not alone in being concerned about handling a large influx of immigrants.

The number of undocumented immigrants in the US has remained relatively stable since 2015, moving from about 11.4 million in 2015 to about 11 million in 2022. 

Two recent reports from the Office of Homeland Security (January 2021 and April 2024) provide estimates of the unauthorized immigrant populations residing in the US during the period of 2015 through 2022. These reports show the unauthorized immigrant population remained relatively stable during this time.  The Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies have similar estimates.  All these reports also agree on the fact that the unauthorized population dropped to around 10.5 million in 2020, Trump’s last year in office. 

Trump and conservatives dispute these figures and have their own estimates of the undocumented population. Basically, they claim that the number of illegal immigrants is now in the range of 20-25 million. We’ll consider the rationale for this claim shortly; and we’ll take a deeper look at it in Part 3 of the series.

An alternate estimate provided by the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), a conservative and anti-immigration organization, maintains there are now about 16.8 million “illegal aliens” living in the US (see graph below).  Interestingly, FAIR’s estimate shows that during Trump’s term (2017-2020) the illegal population increased from 12.5 million to 14.5 million.  This increase of 2 million is nearly identical to the increase of 2 million during Biden’s term (2021-2024).

While the number of unauthorized immigrants appears relatively stable since 2015, a huge increase in noncitizen “encounters” occurred at the borders, especially during Biden’s term of office. 

US Customs and Border Protection publishes monthly reports on migrants who are “apprehended” or “encountered” by federal officials. These numbers represent the number of individuals who were detained and processed, either at ports of entry, at points along the border, or in the interior.  Here are the numbers for the fiscal years that Trump (2017-2020) and Biden (2021-2024) were in office:

• 2017   607,677 encounters
• 2018   739,486 encounters
• 2019   1,175,841 encounters
• 2020   609,265 encounters

• 2021   1,956,519 encounters
• 2022   2,766,582 encounters
• 2023   3,201,144 encounters
• 2024   2,901,142 encounters

Trump and Republicans use the number of “encounters” as a proxy for the number of individuals that illegally enter and remain in the country.  The huge increase in “encounters” during the Biden/Harris Administration is their evidence of the “invasion” of illegals and Biden’s “open borders” policy.  They contend millions of migrants have been briefly detained, and then released to await their court date or further immigration proceedings. 

Thus, while the unauthorized population has remained relatively stable, the dramatic increase in encounters and the huge number of migrants being released, instead of detained, raises legitimate questions about border security.  Public opinion validates this conclusion.  In fact, 80% of Harris supporters and 96% of Trump supporters favor increasing security along the country’s borders (Pew Research, August 2024).

It’s reasonable to be concerned about illegal immigration because of the sharp increase in encounters. However, it’s necessary to determine whether “encounters” are a reasonable proxy for the number of illegal immigrants entering and remaining in the country.  We’ll take a deeper look at this question in Part 3, including a look at Biden’s and Trump’s records on encounters, migrants allowed to remain in the country, and migrants deported, removed, or expelled.  

Apart from the large increases in legal immigration and encounters at the borders, it’s also reasonable and legitimate for the country to be concerned about immigration if it is causing economic struggles for Americans.

Given the Covid-19 pandemic, major economic dislocations, and high inflation, many Americans have been operating under a “scarcity mindset” for several years.  As economic sentiment plunged since 2020, concerns about legal and illegal immigration began to accelerate at the same time.

It is reasonable and legitimate to contemplate limitations on immigration to address this concern. However, before proceeding there must be clear and convincing evidence that legal or illegal immigrants are the cause of Americans suffering in terms of their personal finances.  Thus, claims by Trump and the Republicans must be validated and backed by evidence.

On the other hand, we may want to contemplate changes in immigration to improve the American economy.  71% of Trump supporters and 87% of Harris supporters favor admitting more high skilled immigrants.  And 55% of Trump supporters and 86% of Harris supporters favor admitting immigrants who can fill labor shortages.

It’s also reasonable and legitimate for the country to contemplate tougher stances on illegal immigration due to concerns about the rule of law and social disorder.

In conjunction with the pandemic there was a surge in crime that was accompanied by general disorder and concerns about the quality of life. We’ve been hearing nonstop about the throngs at the border trying to cross without documentation.  We also hear of the drugs, gangs, and cartels that bring death to tens of thousands of Americans annually.  It’s understandable why Americans might be receptive to stronger border security to ensure the rule of law is enforced, crime is controlled, and death rates are reversed. Again, before proceeding with tougher stances on illegal immigration, there must be clear and convincing evidence that illegal immigrants caused the harms being attributed to them. 

On the other hand, it is neither reasonable nor legitimate for the country to contemplate limitations on immigration on the basis of racism, national origin, religion, or xenophobia. 

If the underlying reason for establishing a limit on legal or illegal immigration is to promote racism, discriminate against individuals on the basis of national origin or religion, or promote xenophobia, this is unacceptable.  Yes, we can arrest, detain, and remove any person who enters the country illegally; but we can’t pick or choose on the basis of race, national origin, or religion. 

The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act ended the national origins quotas of the 1920’s and replaced them with a preference system based on skills and family relations. Twenty-five years later, Congress once again reformed U.S. immigration policy with the Immigration Act of 1990. This law expanded the framework and principles of the 1965 law to focus even more on educated and diverse immigrants.

The First Amendment protects politicians who demonize illegal or legal immigrants in order to get elected. They can spread lies and falsehoods for the purpose of stoking fear and anger.  They can make statements that are racist or xenophobic.  And they can even propose actions that are illegal, highly impractical, or that they never seriously intended to implement.

Consequently, we the voters have the additional task of deciding what is true. We can decide whether we want to support a politician who spreads lies and falsehoods to stoke and anger with statements that are racist or xenophobic.  We can decide whether we are being manipulated.  And we can decide whether proposals are reasonable and appropriate, or a repugnant return to America’s shameful  past.

Conclusion:  There are legitimate reasons for Americans to be concerned about illegal and legal immigration; however, we must proceed based on facts, instead of baselessly demonizing and discriminating against immigrants.

Americans have reason to be concerned about illegal and legal immigration. Like other industrialized countries, our capacity to absorb legal immigrants, including asylees, may be stretched too thin. While the undocumented immigrant population appears to be stable, the sharp increase in encounters during the Biden Administration merits further analysis.  Is it fair and accurate to use the number of encounters as a proxy for undocumented immigrants entering and remaining in the country?  

Americans also have reason to be concerned about illegal immigration on the grounds of a scarcity of resources and the need to protect the rule of law and the social order.  However, accusations and actions must first be fully documented.  We the people must not allow migrants to be baselessly targeted and discriminated against on the basis of race, national origin, religion, or xenophobia.  And politicians who urge us to do so would return us to a repugnant past.