In the early going, President Trump hasn’t made much headway delivering on economic promises that got him elected. Especially on inflation and prices, he and his team are attempting to reset the discussion. They explain the promises will be kept, but that necessary changes take time and the transition could be temporarily disruptive.

The question everyone is asking is whether Americans will be receptive to Trump’s explanations and whether they still trust that he will deliver on his promises. 

In this five-part post I’ll answer these questions.  I’ll start by quoting his campaign promises.  I’ll then summarize the progress regarding these promises in the early going. Next, I’ll quote the explanations and excuses that Trump and his team are offering to reset the discussion and retain the confidence and trust of Americans.  Fourth, I’ll explore the disconnects between Trump’s promises and explanations.  And, finally, I’ll look at recent polls on Trump’s handling of the economy to gauge the extent to which Americans are gravitating from accepting to doubting.

Here are the exact promises Trump made during his campaign:

“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”

Trump at Rally in Bozeman, Montana,  August 9, 2024.

“Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months.”  

Trump at Rally in North Carolina, August 14, 2024.

“Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon, bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares, and housing costs.”

Trump Addresses Economic Club Of New York, September 5, 2024.

“We’re going to get the prices down. We have to get them down. It’s too much. Groceries, cars, everything. We’re going to get the prices down. While working Americans catch up, we are going to put a temporary cap on credit card interest rates at 10%.  People are being made to pay 25%. Temporary ban.”

Trump at a campaign Rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, September 29, 2024.

“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that. We’ve got to bring it down.”

Trump campaign remarks in Waunakee, Wisconsin, October 1, 2024.

“The word tariff, properly used, is a beautiful word. One of the most beautiful words I’ve ever heard. It’s music to my ears. A lot of bad people didn’t like that word, but now they’re finding out I was right. And we will take in hundreds of billions of dollars into our Treasury and use that money to benefit the American citizens.  And it will not cause inflation, by the way.” 

Trump at rally in Georgia, August 3, 3024.

“Our country is going to become rich again, very rich,”

Trump said this regarding tariffs at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 22, 2025.

“Dow Jones UP 742 based on the fact that the Market expects a TRUMP WIN in November!  Nice compliment — Thank you!”

Trump post on Truth Social on July 16, 2024

“If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929-style depression. 1929. When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that the only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”

Trump at campaign rally at Asheville, North Carolina on August 14, 2024.

“Since my election, the stock market has set records. The S&P 500 index has broken above 6,000 points for the first time ever, never even close.” 

Trump during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago on January 7, 2025.

“Everyone is calling it the — I don’t want to say this. It’s too braggadocious, but we’ll say it anyway — the Trump effect. It’s you. You’re the effect. Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small business optimism has soared, a record 41 points to a 39-year high.” 

Trump at a rally in Washington D.C. on January 19, 2025.

“They’re finding things that you wouldn’t even believe. So we’re looking to save maybe $2 trillion and it’ll have no impact. Actually. It’ll make life better, but it’ll have no impact on people. We will never cut social security or things like that. It’s just waste, fraud and abuse.”

Trump at press conference at Mar-A-Lago on December 16, 2024.

Here is what happened so far in the first 50 days of Trump’s term:

• Inflation has not come down, and is far from being “ended.” Inflation (12 month percent change) was 3% in January, and 2.8% in February. But the inflation rate was lower than 2.8% in August, September, October, and November of 2024. Inflation for February 2025 was 0.2%; but monthly inflation rates were equal to or lower than this in May, June, July, August, September, and October of 2024. (BLS Consumer Price Index, February 2025).  In order for inflation to “end” it will have to be at 0%. 
• Gas prices have not come down, and are not anywhere near $2 per gallon:  Gas Buddy (average US price, regular) indicates prices for regular ranged between $3.22 and $2.97 a gallon over the past 6 months (since September 16, 2024). They were at $3.08 when Trump took office, and on March 16^th are at $3.02.  Current prices are $1 per gallon over his promise of $2 per gallon.  During Trump’s first term gas averaged $2.57 per gallon.
• Food prices have not come down, although prices for food at home stabilized in February 2025:  BLS reports prices for food were up 0.2% in February 2025.  This is less than the inflation rates in January (shared with Trump), December 2024, and November 2024.  But food inflation was at 0.2% in August, September, and October 2024.  As to food at home, there was no increase in February 2025. On the other hand, since March of 2023, there have been seven months where food inflation was actually negative under Biden.
• Credit card interest rates have not been capped at 10%.  A bill in Congress was introduced, but hasn’t moved and is very unlikely to become law.
• The stock market dropped substantially:  When Trump took office, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were at 43,487 and 5,996, respectively.  When the market closed on March 14, 2025, the numbers for the Dow and the S&P 500 were 40,813 and 5,521, respectively. While the market peaked in late January and early February, all these gains have been erased.  The stock market has lost $4 trillion in value since that time.
• A variety of tariffs have been announced, but effective dates have been delayed and many tariffs have been modified, leaving revenues uncertain. Here’s a summary of the situation as of March 16. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been announced, delayed, and modified.  Tariffs on China have been announced, implemented, and modified.  Reciprocal tariffs have been announced, with an effective date of April 2.  The Tax Foundation has revenue estimates for the latest version of tariffs. Actual revenues are far below estimates because of delays and modifications.
• The risk of a recession has increased, but it premature to make this determination.  According to JP Morgan, there is roughly a 40% chance of a US recession in 2025.  Ninety-five percent of economists polled by Reuters in Canada, Mexico and the U.S. said recession risks in their economies had increased as a result of Trump’s tariffs.  But it will it won’t be until April 30^th that first quarter GDP numbers are released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  A recession can’t officially be declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research until at least the last half of 2025.
• Consumer sentiment is down in recent months. The University of Michigan reported its consumer sentiment index dropped to 57.9 in March after a previous drop to 64.7 in February. Economists had expected the index to dip to 63.1. March was the third consecutive month of decline, and the index is now at its lowest level since November 2022. Americans’ outlook for the future worsened across multiple aspects of the economy, including personal finances, employment, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets.
• DOGE currently estimates a savings of $115 billion from its work, but most of this amount is not documented, and its process and actions have been criticized.  Elon Musk has already admitted that the $2 trillion in cuts figure was “aspirational.”  

Here are Trump and team’s exact explanations and excuses aimed at resetting the discussion and retaining the confidence and trust of Americans:

“Look, they [Biden Administration] got them up. I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard. . . But I think that they will. I think that energy is going to bring them down. I think a better supply chain is going to bring them down. You know, the supply chain is still broken. It’s broken.”

Trump interview with Time Magazine, published December 30, 2024

“Prices are going to come down, but it’s going to take a little bit of time,”

J.D. Vance on CBS’s Face the Nation, January 26, 2025.

“There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re okay with that. It won’t be much.” 

Trump at address to Congress on March 4, 2025.

“I hate to predict things like that.” [Trump when asked about a possible recession]

“There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

“Look, we’re going to have disruption, but we’re OK with that.”

“What I have to do is build a strong country.  You can’t really watch the stock market.”

The above statements were made by Trump on the Fox News show “Sunday Morning Futures” on March 9, 2025

“There’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending.  The market and the economy have just become hooked and we’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period.” 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on CNBC’s Squawk Box, March 7, 2025

“We’ve got these large government deficits, 6.7% of GDP.  We’ve never seen this when we’re not in wartime, not in recession. We are bringing those down in a responsible way. We are going to have a transition. And we are not going to have a crisis.”

“What I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis. I’ve studied it, I’ve taught it, and if we had kept up at these spending levels that – everything was unsustainable.”

The above statements were made by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on NBC’s Meet the Press on March 16, 2025

Here are the disconnects between the promises and the explanations and excuses:

At no time during his campaign did Trump say it was going to be hard to bring down inflation and prices.  Instead, he promised to lower prices from day one, and to end inflation.

At no time during his campaign did Trump say implementing his system of tariffs was going to create disturbances in the stock market and the economy.  Instead, he said his win would create a brand new Trump economic boom.

At no time during his campaign did Trump say that a period of transition would be required where there would be disruption to the economy and stock market.  Instead, he said he was going to turn the country around so fast, and America and Americans were going to become rich again.

At no time during his campaign did Trump say time would be required for a transition away from public spending to private spending. Nor did he say a detox period would be required because we’ve become addicted to government spending. Again, he promised an immediate economic boom. 

If we accept the argument that a transition or detox period is required to transition away from public spending, Trump bears major responsibility for the huge increase in federal spending.  Trump added $6.7 trillion to the national debt between fiscal year 2017 and fiscal year 2020, a 33.1% increase. For FY 2020 alone, the deficit was $3.13 trillion, as spending was $3.13 trillion over the revenue we took in.  History shows that under both Democratic and Republican control, the US has spent far more than it takes in, and the national debt continues to skyrocket.

President Trump promised that deep cuts in spending would have no impact on people, and that it would just be waste, fraud, and abuse. The House of Representatives recently passed a framework for Trump’s tax cuts that involves cutting $2 trillion in spending. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office recently concluded that achieving this number will be next to impossible without cutting Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, and other programs.  These cuts will seriously impact people.

President Biden tried explaining that inflation and high prices were consequences related to the Covid-19 pandemic. There were major supply chain issues, and inflation was going up all around the globe. Also, gas prices spiked at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  He said lowering inflation and prices would take time. The public didn’t want to hear any of this. While Biden entered office with a 57% approval rating, it was down to 42% by September 2021.  His approval remained in the low 40’s for the remainder of his term.  The American public quickly became impatient and didn’t want to hear excuses.

Here’s what recent polling tells us about whether Americans are accepting or skeptical about the lack of progress and Trump’s explanations:

A November 5, 2024 NBC exit poll from the presidential election found that 53% of voters put trust in Trump to better handle the economy than Harris (46%).  Trump came into office with a 51% approval rating, according to Gallup.  Sentiment started to change during his first 50 days in office.

A NBC News (March 7-11) poll found 54% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, versus 44% who approve.  Also, 55% disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, while only 42% approve.

A Real Clear Politics Poll Average (2/3 to 3/12) also found Trump underwater on approval regarding the economy, with 51.6% disapproving and 43.7% approving.

Polling from the Economist/YouGov (3/9 to 3/11) found Trump’s approval rating on jobs and the economy went down from 49 percent to 43 percent between late January and early March.

In a CNN poll released March 13, 51 percent of respondents said Trump’s policies have worsened the country’s economic conditions, while only 28 percent say they have improved conditions, and 21 percent say they have had no effect.

Conclusion: Americans want Trump to deliver on his promises, not make excuses.

As it was when Trump was campaigning, over 70% of Americans continue to struggle with their personal finances.  Many live paycheck to paycheck, and most experience anxiety over their financial situations.  Prices for groceries, gasoline, rent, and everything else are what have their attention; and they need relief.  Now. 

Millions voted for Trump based on his promises, and Trump himself touts that, “I won an election based on that” [the price of groceries].  Just as voters had no patience for Joe Biden’s explanations and excuses, they aren’t having Trump’s attempts to reset the discussion. 

The measuring stick for most Americans continues to be prices at the grocery store, the gas station, and other everyday expenses.  We’re watching our bank accounts, credit cards, and 401k’s.  And we know when we’re doing without and can’t make ends meet. Trump’s attempts to tell us to be patient will fall on deaf ears. His attempts to spin victory at every conceivable opportunity in the weeks and months ahead will also fall on deaf ears.  Americans don’t want to wait, and they don’t want to hear excuses.