On April 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025 came in at a negative 0.3% (-0.3%). This decline in GDP over the quarter (January, February, and March 2025) was the first in three years. As to this troubling news, Trump asserted, “This is Biden.”

Despite ten consecutive quarters of robust GDP growth immediately prior to this quarter, Trump blamed Biden for the decline. The President explained that the economy was so bad under Biden that there had to be a transition phase. “Our country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden overhang,” Trump claimed.

Two days later, on May 2, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a better-than-expected 177,000 jobs were added in April 2025. Suddenly–mysteriously–we were back to the Trump economy. The White House extolled the historic gains brought about by Trump’s decisive leadership. And here’s how Trump crowed on Truth Social:

Most of Trump’s boasts about lowering prices, beating inflation, and reviving the economy are just plain false.

Gasoline has not broken $1.98 a gallon and is not the lowest in years, according to fact checks by CNN, Gas Buddy, and CBS News. In fact, over the past six months, the price for a gallon of regular has ranged between a low of $2.97 under Biden (early December 2024) to a high of $3.26 under Trump (April 2). As of May 3, the average prices is $3.14 per gallon (see Gas Buddy).

It is also false for Trump to claim that groceries and eggs are down. In fact, prices are higher.

Trump’s claim that “employment is strong” is based on BLS Job Reports for January, February, March, and April of 2025. Each of these months had job growth between 100,000 and 177,000 new jobs. But if we deem these numbers to be strong, then Biden’s numbers for the nine prior months are also strong, particularly September, November, and December of 2024. The graph below shows the country has enjoyed strong job growth for over a year.

When Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the stock market crashed. He immediately rewrote history by saying it was always the case that there would be a period of adjustment and hardship before the economy got better. He repeatedly insists he campaigned on this fact. Voters always knew there would be a period of transition and difficulty. He now regularly argues some temporary hardship is necessary to stop America from being abused on trade. The hardship will be worth it in the long run as we return to a manufacturing economy.

Numerous fact checks have failed to turn up any evidence that Trump, during his campaign, warned Americans that his policies would involve some disruption or temporary hardship. He never said that there would be a period of hardship and transition. Thus, Trump’s claims to this effect are false. In fact, most of his campaign pledges promised immediate progress, or progress on “day one.”

Trump also repeatedly claims there is “no inflation” and that consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. Again, this is a lie, as we can see from the graph below. Inflation has hovered at around 3% for most of the time between June 2023 and March 2025. It was at 3% at the start of Trump’s term, but dropped to 2.4% in March, largely matching the inflation rate for September of 2024. As you can clearly see, inflation remains above 2%. It is thus false for Trump to claim “no inflation.”

The falsehoods have been so frequent and so egregious that USA Today seriously took the President to task:

“People across the country are furious and historically disapproving of the job the Republicans’ MAGA king is doing. Don’t take my word for it. A growing pile of polls paints a clear picture.”

“To be clear, the only person lying is Trump. He is the one trying to convince us that everything is great while people across the country suffer. He wants us to believe that a tanking economy and a tumultuous government are the fault of immigrants and transgender people, and it isn’t working. Even after his declining approval rating, Trump is trying to convince his supporters that everything is fine.”

USA Today, May 1, 2025

Trump’s approval ratings on the economy, prices, and inflation have plummeted as Americans realize he is failing to deliver on his promises, lying, and harming the economy.

An EconomistYouGov Poll conducted April 25-28 found:

• On Trump’s handling of jobs and the economy, 51% disapproved, while only 41% approved.
• On Trump’s handling of inflation and prices, 57% disapproved, while only 36% approved.

Trump’s ratings on these factors went underwater quickly. An EconomistYouGov Poll from January 26-28 showed 49% approved of his handling of jobs and the economy, with 37% disapproving. In terms of inflation and prices, 45% approved, while 39% disapproved. The erosion in approval came from Democrats, Independents, and even Republicans. For instance, while only 4% of Republicans disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation and prices in the January poll, by April 21% of Republicans disapproved. And while only 38% of Independents disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation and prices in January, by April, 61% of Independents disapproved.

Similar results were reported by Navigator Research Poll (April 30):

• 56% disapproved of his handling of the economy, while only 40% approved.
• 61% disapproved of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, while only 32% approved.
• 59% disapproved of tariffs, while only 33% approved.
• Trump’s ratings on these factors moved underwater very substantially and quickly since his inauguration. They are his worst ever numbers from the Navigator Research Poll.

Finally, a recent CNN Poll reveals that 59% of Americans believe that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the country, while only 27% believe his policies have improved economic conditions.

It’s likely that the worst effects of Trump’s tariffs and other economic policies are yet to come.

Trump has been instituting, suspending and modifying tariffs at a dizzying pace. The President and his team say the actions are deliberate, strategic, and calculated. However, the public and many economists say the unpredictable back and forth is disrupting and harming the economy. While the most impactful tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs, were announced on April 2, just a week later the President acted to suspend them for 90 days. All countries but China were thus given a 90-day reprieve to negotiate alternate trade agreements.

Consequently, as of early May, only a portion of Trump’s tariff policies are actually operative. And, we’re at least 60 days away from a more definitive and complete set of tariffs. We have yet to see how much tariffs will affect consumer prices. We have yet to see how many countries reduce or cut off trade with the United States. We have yet to see how tariffs will affect shipping, employment, port business, trucking, and product availability.

For instance, let’s look at employment. The survey period for each monthly BLS Job Report is conducted at the beginning of the month in question. Thus, for instance, the survey for the recently-released April Jobs Report was done in early April. While this was a good Jobs Report (177,000 new jobs), it was based on a survey that took place before any fallout from reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. With the 90-day suspension, it’s likely that tariffs will have little negative effect on the May Jobs Report. The same may be true of June. But certainly by late summer, the effect of tariffs on employment and unemployment will begin to be evident.

For another instance, we also know that many businesses are expanding their inventories to the maximum extent possible before tariffs go into effect. The new tariffs will make importing their products more expensive. Buying in advance makes good sense. Consequently, it may take some time before these forward-looking businesses face increased costs. And it may take some time before these increased costs are passed on to customers.

Finally, poor and middle class Americans are mostly being left out in the cold during this transition period. Wealthy and upper middle class consumers enjoy the ability to purchase big-ticket items such as automobiles, automobile parts, and electronics. They can dodge the tariffs. But those living paycheck to paycheck–the vast majority of Americans–don’t have this luxury.

Conclusion: President Trump’s claims of success and deflections of blame should not be believed unless they validated; and, regardless, he remains accountable for the promises he made on the campaign trail and the economy that is now his.

Within the first 100 days of Trump’s term, Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with his performance regarding the economy, jobs, inflation and prices. He has lost credibility by resorting to lies. He has deflected blame to Biden when there is no rational basis or evidence to support such claims. He lies again when he says he told us on the campaign trail that there was going to be a period of disruption and transition as we implemented his policies.

This is now Trump’s economy. Because of his mendacity, we cannot believe what he tells us unless he presents clear evidence or unless we validate what he’s saying. If the implementation of tariffs causes disruptions to the economy and hurts the personal finances of Americans, this is directly on Trump. And, regardless of tariffs, the President remains accountable to Americans for his many specific promises to lower prices, beat inflation, and create the greatest economy in history.