Make no mistake—the fentanyl epidemic in the United States is a problem that is real, serious, and getting worse over time.  Given the hyper-partisan approach that dominates America’s policymaking, Republicans have placed primary blame on Joe Biden and the Democrats.  Today we’ll apply some research and analysis to gain a deeper understanding of the fentanyl overdose deaths and how the problem might be solved.  Once again, our approach will be to set aside the partisan blame-game rubric and discover how Republicans and Democrats might come together to tame the epidemic and overdose deaths.

Examples of How Republicans Are Blaming Biden

Let’s start by citing a few examples of how Republicans and the conservative media have been blaming Biden and the Democrats for fentanyl overdose deaths.

“For too long, Biden’s botched border policies have prioritized criminals and cartels over legal immigration and Americans’ safety.  Dictators, cartels and bad guys around the world know that Biden is a weak appeaser with open border policies. They’re taking full advantage by trafficking evil drugs like fentanyl across the southern border, poisoning our communities and killing our loved ones.”

Rick Scott (Senator, R, Fla)

“Joe Biden: ‘Fentanyl is killing more than 70,000 Americans a year.’ Why? Because of Joe Biden’s wide open southern border he has done nothing to fix!”

Kayleigh McEnany (Former Trump White House Press Secretary, now a commentator on Fox News)

Because of Biden’s failure to secure the border and skyrocketing fentanyl deaths during his watch, several Republicans have called for federal legislation to designate Mexican drug cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.”

“The illicit drugs and other deadly activities being carried out by cartels are killing Americans at record rates. Since Joe Biden and the Democrats continue to turn a blind eye, we are going to do something about it by designating the drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations . . . As these cartels continue to invade our porous southern border in an increasingly militarized approach, this designation is needed to ramp up our efforts to combat them. We will not rest in our fight to stop fentanyl’s terrible scourge wreaking havoc in Kansas and across the U.S.”

Roger Marshall (Senator, R, KS)

Fentanyl Overdose Deaths—What Do the Numbers Show?

While it is true that fentanyl overdose deaths have increased significantly during Biden’s time in office (2021 and 2022), let’s look at some numbers to assess whether the President is to blame.  First, let’s look at the trend in fentanyl overdose deaths over time, as shown in the graph below:

While fentanyl deaths have been increasing each year since 2012, they clearly began to spike in 2015.  The spike continued at a very high rate through the Trump Presidency (2017-2020), going from 20,932 when he took office in January of 2017, to 56,894 in December 2020. Thus, while fentanyl deaths have increased during Biden’s first two years, these increases reflect a trend that began several years earlier, including all of Trump’s term in office. 

Also, the analysis in USA Facts, notes the impact of declining opioid prescriptions may have had on increased fentanyl use:

“In recent years, deaths from fentanyl overdose rose sharply, overtaking deaths from prescription opioids and heroin. This change is likely attributed to a decline in opioid prescription rates and reformulations to drugs such as Oxycontin aimed at curbing abuse, along with the growing rate at which illegally made fentanyl is combined with other illicit drugs.”

USA Facts

Fentanyl Seizures—What Do the Numbers Show?

Next, let’s look at statistics regarding drug seizures—specifically fentanyl—by the Border Patrol and US Customs.  Here I’m citing data from US Customs and Border Protection.

• In Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 (Oct 1, 2019 to Sept 30, 2020) 4.8 kilograms of fentanyl was seized.  This was during Trump’s last year in office. 
• In FY 2021, 11.2 kilograms of fentanyl was seized.
• In FY 2022, 14.7 kilograms of fentanyl was seized.
• In FY 2023 thus far (Oct 1, 2022 to Jan 2023) 12.5 kilograms of fentanyl has already been seized, with eight months left in fiscal the year.

Other seizure statistics document that the smuggling is not by illegal borders crossers, but rather mostly by U.S. citizens at legal crossing points.

• In 2021, U.S. citizens were 86.3 percent of convicted fentanyl drug traffickers—ten times greater than convictions of illegal immigrants for the same offense.
• Over 90 percent of fentanyl seizures occur at legal crossing points or interior vehicle checkpoints, not on illegal migration routes, so U.S. citizens (who are subject to less scrutiny) when crossing legally are the best smugglers.
• The location of smuggling makes sense because hard drugs at ports of entry are about 97 percent less likely to be stopped than are people crossing illegally between them.
• Just 0.02 percent of the people arrested by Border Patrol for crossing illegally possessed any fentanyl whatsoever.

The seizures during Biden’s term in office have set new records and the evidence shows that illegal border crossers are not the culprits. This evidence rebut contentions that the Biden Administration has “done nothing” “turned a blind eye” or has “open border” policies.

Stemming the Tide of Fentanyl Deaths is Much More Complicated than Securing the Border

If we conduct further research and analysis, we’ll see that the problem of fentanyl deaths is multi-faceted, and that reversing the trend is going to require a combination of solutions.  From a recent NPR report: “Politicians say they’ll stop fentanyl smugglers. Experts say new drug war won’t work” (February 21, 2023) provides a good overview of how complicated both the problem and solutions are.

• Fentanyl can be manufactured inexpensively, and the drug cartels are simply making more when quantities are seized.  We won’t be able to seize our way out of the problem.
• The chemicals used to make fentanyl come from China, and the US has been working with China to address the problem.  However, disputes over Taiwan and other issues have soured relations, and China has suspended most drug-fighting collaborations with the US.
• Another problem is that the Mexican government has showed signs of being too weak or unwilling to take the cartels.
• Closely related, the Mexican government is subject to corruption, and the cartels have infiltrated into judicial and law enforcement institutions.
• Statistics reveal that most seizures of fentanyl occur at official checkpoints hidden in cars or commercial trucks driven by American citizens.  President Biden and others have argued for improving technology designed to detect fentanyl at those crossings.  But fentanyl is so powerful, it can be smuggled in tiny quantities.
• Republicans have called for designating Mexican drug cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations” thus enabling the American military and intelligence sectors to get involved in breaking up the cartels.  However, the Mexican government has resisted and opposed this move, saying it violates its independence and sovereignty.  Unilateral action by the United States could threaten its very close and important economic relationship with Mexico.   
• Even with a more secure border and efforts to combat the cartels, illicit fentanyl will still available and overdose deaths will continue.  Most drug policy experts agree that a public health model will also be required to work on the “demand side” through education, treatment, and prevention. 

Clearly, while fentanyl overdose deaths are a major and growing problem for the country, it’s not as simple as blaming Joe Biden and demanding that he and the Democrats take action to secure the border.  Overdose deaths from fentanyl were already a significant problem during Trump’s term of office.  Republicans claimed that Trump had secured the borders; yet fentanyl overdose deaths skyrocketed during his term. 

Republicans and Democrats Need to Come Together to Understand the Complexity of the Problem and Develop Multiple-Part Solution

Once again, it’s apparent that the hyper-partisan approach to blame a person and/or political party for a problem is both misleading and overly-simplistic.  Joe Biden is not solely or primarily responsible for the surge in fentanyl overdose deaths; nor can the surge in deaths be pinned on a less secure border than existed under Trump.  The hyper-partisan blame game may be helpful in winning elections and stoking division;  but it’s not very effective in terms of actually solving problems. 

Instead of this simplistic approach, fentanyl overdose deaths is complex problem that requires policy makers to not only understand its various facets, but also to collaboratively develop a multi-part solution.   Let me elaborate.

Republicans and Democrats need to come together to jointly assess the Mexican government’s ability and willingness to work with the United States to reduce the manufacture and flow of illicit fentanyl, and take on the Mexican drug cartels.  As much as possible, the parties need to come together on an understanding of just how ready, willing, and able the Mexican government is to take on these tasks.  If the consensus is that the Mexican government is unwilling or unable, then the parties should discuss actions the US could take unilaterally, including, for instance, the designation of Mexican cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.”   Again, the parties should discuss and understand the consequences of such unilateral action, and whether they will jointly own those consequences.   In addition, the parties should discuss China’s role in the production of chemicals necessary to make fentanyl.  They should, if possible, jointly decide actions and strategies to bring more cooperation with China.

On another front, the parties should jointly decide on a course of action to better secure the border.  What are the best strategies for increasing seizures of fentanyl and preventing its flow into the country?

And, finally, the parties should jointly decide on a “public health” course of action that will attack the demand side of the problem, including efforts towards education, treatment, and prevention.  Promising strategies include greater access to the overdose reversal drug naloxone, drug checking tools tools like fentanyl test strips, syringe service programs, and overdose prevention centers.

The problem of fentanyl overdose deaths is not going to be solved by political parties blaming one another for the problem.  Also, neither party—Republican nor Democrat—can fix the problem unilaterally; nor can the President fix the problem unilaterally.  Instead, Republicans and Democrats, as well as Congress and the President, need to share information and assessments, working collaboratively to develop the best foreign relations strategies to reduce the flow of illicit fentanyl into the country.  They also need to decide border security and public health strategies to be included, along with necessary legal authorizations and resources.