On the campaign trail, candidate Trump promised to produce a booming economy that beat back inflation and restored low prices.  Many independents and even some Democrats joined Republicans in voting for him because they believed he was the better candidate when it came to the economy.  And, of course, many were lured to vote for Trump based on his plethora of specific promises for change on “day one.”

Appropriately, President Trump began his inauguration speech with the words, “The golden age of America begins right now.” 

As we reach the end of March, President Trump is now 68 days into his presidency.  While it’s far too early to make final assessments regarding his economic promises, it is appropriate to evaluate his progress to date.  Below, in bullet points, I set forth actual results regarding several promises. And I then provide polling results to indicate how the American people are feeling about the results thus far. 

What’s happening with the economy and Trump’s specific promises?

• Since January 20, the Dow Jones Industrial average plunged from 43,488 to 41,584, a 4.4% drop in 68 days. The S&P 500 plunged from 5,997 to 5,581, a 6.9% drop.  Under Biden, the stock market went up 2% during his first 60 days. President Trump repeatedly promised the stock market would boom under his presidency.

• On January 20, the national average for a gallon of regular gas was $3.14.  On March 28, average price for regular was $3.14 (Gas Buddy).  President Trump promised to bring down gas pricies beginning on day one, and to get them below $2 per gallon.  

• The cost of food at home went up in January and February of 2025, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).  Groceries inflation for these months went up compared with the rates from the previous 14 months (back to November 2023).  And the monthly inflation changes during this period were actually negative for several of those months.  Trump promised to bring down the cost of groceries beginning on day one.

• For January 2025 the average price for a dozen eggs was $4.95; for February it was $5.90 (FRED).  Between May 2023 and November 2024, the price of eggs usually ranged between $2.50 to $3.50 per dozen.

• For March 2025, the average credit card interest rate is 24.2%.  Credit card interest rates have been in excess of 20% since November 2022. Candidate Trump promised to bring down credit card interest rates, promising a 10% cap.  

• On January 20, 2025, home mortgage interest rates (30-year mortgage) averaged 6.96%; and by the end of March they are at 6.65%.  Since September of 2022, average 30-year interest rates have ranged between 6% and 7%, except for a briefly higher period in fall 2023.  On the campaign trail Trump said he would drive down rates to 2%; and on another occasion he promised 3% or below.

How do Americans feel about the economy and Trump’s efforts thus far?

• On March 24-26, 59% of respondents said prices for goods and services have been going up in recent weeks, compared to only 10% whe believed they were going down (CBS News Poll-YouGov).  In that same poll, 76% said their income wasn’t keeping up with inflation, 53% were concerned about their ability to pay for food and groceries, and 71% were concerned about their ability to save and buy extras.

• In March of 2025 there was a nearly 12% drop in consumer sentiment to 57, down from February’s 64.7, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.  The drop — the third consecutive monthly decrease — puts the index at its lowest level since November of 2022

• On March 27, only 47.6% approved of President Trump’s performance, while 49.7% disapproved (Real Clear Politics Average of Polls).  Upon entering office, President Trump had a 50.5% approval rating (and 44.3% disapproval) according Real Clear Politics. Gallup says Trump entered office with a 47% approval rating, and that by March 3-16, it was down to 43%.  In contrast, President Biden mostly maintained 57% approval between January and April of his first year.

• Trump’s approval rating over his handling of the economy has dropped to 39%, while 51% disapprove, according to a March 20-24 poll by YouGov.

Can Trump reverse these early dismal results and low marks?

My research says that Trump faces an uphill fight in reversing the early dismal results and low marks from voters.  If he were to abandon his approach on widespread tariffs and take the approach used in his first term, this could stabilize and improve the stock market.  But it will remain difficult for Trump to make good on many or most of his specific campaign promises.  It’s extremely doubtful that gas will go down to $2.00 per gallon, that food prices will drop to those that existed in his first term, that credit card interest rates will be capped at 10%, or that mortgage rates will drop to 2% or 3%. 

In the early going, polling shows that Republicans are sticking with Trump on his handling of the economy and his various promises.  The erosion in support is primarily coming from independents, with more switching from approval to disapproval, and with more taking a dim view of his handling of the economy. 

The weeks ahead, however, could challenge Trump in maintaining support from Republicans.  Specifically, to pay for Trump’s tax cuts, Republicans are actively considering major cuts to programs such as Medicaid and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program).  These programs serve many Republican voters, especially those with middle or low income who live in rural areas.  If their aid is cut off, or if their hospitals close because of Medicaid cuts, their loyalty to the President may change. 

In addition, efforts to reduce the federal workforce and shutter agencies are bound to have an effect on voters who supported Trump.  They too could change their loyalties if they or their family members lose their jobs.   

Finally, history shows that voters blame presidents when the economy is bad and their personal finances suffer. They weren’t at all interested in hearing President Biden’s excuses for high inflation, and expensive groceries and gas.  If conditions don’t remarkably turn around, voters are likely to hold Republican Congressional candidates accountable when it comes to the November 2026 midterms.