Even before all the votes are counted, Americans are finding themselves buried in a cascade of opinions about the election results and the implications for Trump’s second term. Fox News and conservative pundits extol Trump’s “landslide victory.”  He is characterizing his win as an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” especially with control of both the House and Senate. Republicans are gleefully making plans as their voters celebrate victory.

Media outlets and pollsters tell us Trump succeeded by securing marginal gains among selected demographic groups, including Latino men, Black men, and younger voters. Democrats are wringing their hands and speculating about what went wrong. Everyone seems to have a unique theory about the pivotal mistake and who bears the blame. Some even lament fundamental failures.  

Is everything as rosy as Republicans exult, and as disastrous and demoralizing as Democrats decry? To gain some perspective regarding this onslaught of opinions, I decided to look back on history. I found six lessons that tell us the outcome is neither as promising as Republicans believe nor as devastating as Democrats fear. Let me share these lessons.

1. Historically speaking, Trump’s win is not a “landslide”; rather, it’s similar to Biden’s win in 2020, which does qualify as a “decisive victory.”

NBC News reports the electoral and popular vote on November 15^th, as final votes are being counted.

In 2020, Joe Biden ended up with 306 electoral votes, which is 6 short of what Trump achieved.  However, Biden won the popular vote by some 7 million votes, compared with Trump’s 2024 winning margin of just under 3 million. Pollsters expect Trump’s margin of victory will shrink even more when all votes are counted.  Finally, for perspective, Trump only got about 2 million more votes in 2024 (76.14 million) than he did in 2020 (74.22 million).

Chris Stirewalt of The Dispatch puts it succinctly:

“Trump will end up with 312 electoral votes . . . That puts him at 57.99 percent of the Electoral College, tied with James Garfield in the election of 1880 at 44^th biggest victory out of 60 presidential elections.” 

For more recent perspective, Barack Obama gained 365 electoral votes in 2008, and 332 in 2012.  Bill Clinton won 370 electoral votes in 1992, and 379 in 1996. And, in a true landslide, Ronald Reagan won 525 electoral votes in 1984.

If you want more historical proof about why Trump’s victory doesn’t qualify as a landslide, check out this article from the History Channel.  

2. Trump’s victory, along with winning both houses of Congress, qualifies as a “powerful mandate”; however, history says this mandate is neither unprecedented nor likely to last.

Let’s go back several presidential election cycles and see what happened when presidents came into office with their parties also capturing both chambers of Congress.  History shows that voters are quick to become disenchanted.

• Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992, and the Democrats captured both the Senate and the House by significant margins (57-43 in the Senate, and 258-176 in the House).  By the 1994 midterm elections, Republicans captured control of both the Senate and the House.
• George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000, and the Republicans captured both the Senate and the House by narrow margins. Prior to the 2002 midterms, Republicans lost control of the Senate because Republican Jim Jeffords switched to Independent.  Republicans regained control of both Houses in the 2002 midterms, but lost control of both the Senate and the House in the 2006 midterms. 
• Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, and the Democrats captured both the Senate and the House by significant margins.  By the 2010, midterms, Democrats lost control of the House by a significant margin. 
• Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, and the Republicans captured a narrow majority in the Senate and a significant majority in the House.  By the 2018 midterms, Democrats captured a significant majority in the House. 
• Joe Biden won the presidency in 2020, and the Democrats captured a very narrow majority in the Senate and a significant majority in the House. By the 2022 midterms, Republicans had captured the majority in the House. 

Clearly, it’s not unprecedented for a president to capture both chambers of Congress when they are elected as President. They usually do. On the other hand, we also see that it’s common for a president to lose control of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterm election two years into their presidency. 

History shows, especially in recent decades, that presidents who come into office with majorities in the Senate and House are able to pass significant legislation in their first two years. For instance, Obama was successful with the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare); Trump was successful with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; and Biden was successful with the American Rescue Plan Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. But all of these presidents were much more limited in passing legislation after the midterms two years into their presidencies.  It seems that “powerful mandates” often last only two years.

3. Recent history also reveals that voters are inclined to throw out the incumbent party and give their current presidents low approval ratings.  

Trump’s victory is the third straight presidential election where voters rejected the candidate from the incumbent political party. Biden/Harris were rejected in favor of Trump in 2024, Trump was rejected in favor of Biden in 2020, and Hillary Clinton was rejected in favor of Trump in 2016. This trend demonstrates that voters are quick to blame incumbents and the party in control. This result shouldn’t be surprising given the increasing divisiveness and hyper-partisan politics coming from both parties in recent years.

Public opinion polling clearly reveals that large percentages of voters (and not just Republicans) are critical of Biden’s handling of the economy, inflation, and illegal immigration. Trump and the Republicans hammered away on these problems, sometimes with false or misleading messaging. It is thus not surprising, in light of current trends, that Harris could not overcome these strong headwinds.

Finally, approval ratings of recent presidents clearly indicate the public has been grumpy when it comes to rating presidential performance. Looking at results from Gallup going back to 2008, Obama was the only president who came close to a 50% approval rating for the duration of his presidency. He averaged 48%, reaching a high of 67% as he came into office, and a low of 40% on several occasions. Trump averaged 41% approval for his entire term, with a low of 34% when he left office, and a high of 49% in May 2020. Joe Biden averaged 43% approval for his time in office thus far. His approval ratings were over 50% during his first six months in office; and he sunk to a low of 36% in July of 2024, shortly after his poor debate performance on June 27, 2024.

4. In terms of voter turnout and demographics, the 2024 election continued a number of trends and brought a few eye-opening changes.

Here are some of key results in terms of voter turnout and demographics:

• White voters, especially men, continued to vote Trump/Republican. White voters have favored Republican presidential candidates going back to at least 1972.
• Black voters, especially women, continued to vote Harris/Democrat. However, Trump made some gains in terms of younger Black men. About 3 in 10 Black men under the age of 45 went for Trump, roughly double the number he received in 2020.  Going back to 2012, the share of the Black vote for Democrats has been eroding: 93% for Obama in 2012, 91% for Clinton in 2016, 91% for Biden in 2020, and 83% for Harris in 2024.
• Latino voters continued to vote for Harris/Democrats, but support eroded among Latino men and Latinos in general since 2012.  While Harris won more than half of Latino voters (52% vs 46%), this support was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters that Biden won. Importantly, 55% of Latino men voted for Trump, a big reversal from the about 6 in 10 who voted for Biden in 2020. According to NBC News Latino support for Democratic candidates has been eroding: 65% for Obama in 2012, 69% for Clinton in 2016, 63% for Biden in 2020, and 54% for Harris in 2024.
• Younger voters (those 18-29) continued to vote for Harris/Democrats, but this support has eroded since 2020.  In 2016, Clinton had a 19-point advantage, in 2020 Biden had a 24-point advantage, and in 2024 Harris only had an 11-point advantage.

In terms of turnout, pollsters initially reported that total turnout would be far below the level achieved in 2020. However, this concern was dispelled as all votes were counted. The University of Florida Election Lab estimates that turnout in 2024 (as of November 15, 2024) was 63.68% of the voting-eligible population with a total of 155.8 million votes cast. This is down slightly from record breaking 2020, with a turnout of 65.9% of eligible voters and 159.74 million votes cast. Since some populated states have many votes to be counted (e.g., California still has about 1.7 million votes to be counted as of November 14^th), turnout for 2024 should be close to that achieved in 2020. 

While the total votes cast in 2024 are only about 4 million fewer than the record number in 2020, the shortfall ended up on the Harris side of the ledger. Trump’s 2024 vote total was about 2 million more than he received in 2020, while Harris’ total (73.2 million) was about 8 million shy of the 81.2 million Biden received in 2020.  

5. The outcome of the election, including shifts in voter demographics, is prompting a spate of theories about why Trump won and why Harris lost, including who is to blame. 

Politicians, media outlets, and pollsters have been going crazy in the days since the election was called.  Most are coming up with theories that identify the single factor or silver bullet reason that enabled Trump’s victory and created failure for Democrats. Some say Biden stayed in the race way too long and should never have run for a second term. Some say Americans are sexist and are still not ready to elect a woman as president.  Some say the Democrats ignored their base, the working class. Some say Harris was not the best candidate.  Some say Trump and the Republicans did a better job of making campaign promises that secured votes. And some say Trump and the Republicans used false and misleading information to demonize Democrats, blame them for virtually everything, and stoke fear and anger among voters. There are even more theories, but you get the picture.

After considering this vast array of theories and explanations, I argue it’s foolish to conclude that there was a single factor or reason that brought Trump’s victory and Harris’ defeat. Rather, the result was produced by a series of contributing factors. Further, I argue it’s speculative to attempt to quantify the extent to which each of these factors contributed to the overall result. The best we can do is identify the many factors and consider the implications going forward.

6. Here is my attempt to identify the most important factors why Trump won and Harris lost, including implications going forward.  

• Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the race put Harris and Democrats in a very difficult position to win the presidency.

There is no question that Biden staying in the race so long forced Democrats to choose the replacement candidate without a competition.  It also gave Harris very little time to develop and carry out a campaign.

Hindsight says Biden should have served one term as President, providing enough time for an orderly process (primaries) to select his successor. The decision not to run again need not have been announced early in his term (making him an instant “lame duck”).  Instead, for instance, it could have come immediately after the November 2022 midterms. All this is easier said than done, given the likelihood that no president will be willing or planning to step down.

Going forward, incumbent presidents, for the sake of their party and the country, must either consciously decide whether and when they will not run, or step away at a time that will allow an orderly process to choose a replacement candidate.

• Regardless of Biden’s decision, Democrats were in a difficult position to win because of the strong tendencies for voters to blame the party in power and not re-elect the incumbent party.

Had Biden stepped aside, with primaries to select the candidate, this might have helped the situation somewhat. But voters still may have rejected the candidate of the incumbent party. There is no doubt that Trump and the Republicans would have tied any Democrat candidate to the “disastrous policies” of the Biden Administration.  

Going forward, as long as American politics remains a “hyper-partisan blame game,” incumbent presidents or candidates will tend to be rejected after one term.  While Trump need not worry about this prospect, it’s entirely likely he could lose one or both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterm election.

• Many Americans did not appear to be ready to vote for a female president, including some females.

In 2020, males favored Trump over Biden by 53% to 45% (8-point difference); while in 2024 males favored Trump over Harris by 55% to 42% (13-point difference). But Harris’ support from females also declined.  In 2020, females favored Biden over Trump by 57% to 42% (15-point difference); while in 2024, females favored Harris over Trump by 53% to 45% (8-point difference). We don’t know how many males or females decided to vote for Trump for reasons other than Harris’ gender (e.g., the economy, Harris not being seen as the better candidate, or simply not knowing enough about Harris).

Going forward, the best candidates should compete for the presidency, regardless of gender.   It’s unacceptable to exclude candidates based on gender.

• The Covid-19 pandemic created economic shockwaves that hit the country hard during Biden’s term.

Like most countries, America suffered high inflation that caused most Americans to suffer financially. Trump and the Republicans relentlessly blamed Biden and the Democrats for high inflation and financial hardship, often with false or misleading claims. These claims stuck, and Americans blamed Biden for their economic hardships. Not enough was done to own the problem of high inflation but convince Americans it was caused by the pandemic. Too much stimulus spending by both the Trump and Biden Administrations was preferable to driving the country into a prolonged recession.  

Going forward, as long as American politics remains a hyper-partisan blame game, Democrats and Republicans will likely be able to vote the incumbent president or candidate out after one term.  They will also have a good chance of capturing at least one chamber of Congress by the midterm election.

• The Biden Administration did not effectively address the situation at the Southern Border.

Democrats should have known that the steep increase in “encounters” would be exploited by Trump and the Republicans. Democrats should have recognized the legitimacy of border security. They should have done more to reduce encounters early in Biden’s presidency. Trump and the Republicans stoked fear and anger against migrants through false and misleading claims. These included a “migrant crime wave,” “eating pets,” “poisoning the blood of the country,” and migrants taking Black and Latino jobs. Many of these messages are racist and xenophobic.  We don’t know how many voters were influenced by such messages. Most were probably influenced by the sharp uptick in encounters. But we can conclude that Trump and the Republicans wouldn’t have deployed these communications if they weren’t persuasive with voters.

Going forward, as long as American politics remains a hyper-partisan blame game, Democrats and Republicans will likely be able to vote the incumbent president or candidate out after one term. They will also be able to capture at least one chamber of Congress by the midterm election.  As to 2025, Trump’s actions to carry out mass deportations will likely give Democrats numerous options to attack his policies and point to inhumane or shocking images. Finally, racist and xenophobic messaging should never be used by either party. It should be called out and condemned.

• The Trump campaign and Republicans were particularly adept at luring and enticing selected demographic groups to vote for Trump.

The election results show that Trump made gains at the margins with respect to several demographic groups. Promises such as “no taxes on tips” “no taxes on Social Security” and reaching out to younger voters paid off. Many Latinos and Blacks were convinced that Biden/Harris policies harmed the economy, caused them financial hardship, and threatened their job prospects. Also, Trump and the Republicans tapped into misogynistic tendencies of some males, especially the young.

Going forward, both parties are free to devise strategies and make promises to gain more support from select demographic groups. As to 2025 and beyond, Democrats should keep tabs on all of Trump’s promises, call out racist and misogynistic messaging, and remind voters of the President’s track record.  Many of Trump’s promises carry heavy fiscal consequences, meaning they will either balloon the National Debt or have to be abandoned.

• The Biden, Harris and Democrats abandoned working-class Americans, and didn’t speak to their needs.

Democrats put too much emphasis on strengthening their emerging base of financially well-off college graduates, instead of speaking to the needs of working-class Americans. As a result, there was an exodus of blue-collar voters from the Democratic party, including, especially, White, Latino, and Black men.

Many disagree with this assessment, arguing the Biden Administration delivered big for working-class Americans. Examples include the American Rescue Plan Act, Bidenomics, real wage gains, and support for organized labor. Harris campaigned on creating an “opportunity economy” for everyone, going after price gouging, and assistance for down payments on houses. While Harris might have lost some votes because she didn’t speak enough to the needs of the working class, the exodus in these votes is more likely due to other factors. Some were persuaded by Trump’s messaging that she and Biden were to blame for high inflation, including financial problems. Some were attracted to vote for Trump because of his promises (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime).  And some bought Trump’s falsehood that Biden’s illegal immigrants were taking Latino and Black jobs. 

Going forward, Democrats should continue soul searching regarding this factor, but stop considering it in isolation. The exodus in blue-collar votes has been occurring over the past several election cycles.  And, maybe, the Republicans simply did a better job of hoodwinking voters into believing that Democrats were the ones who ruined the economy, created high inflation, and stressed their personal finances.

• Over half of voters chose to ignore or overlook Trump’s evident unfitness for office (e.g., two impeachments, a felony conviction, efforts to overturn the 2020 election, insurrection, sexual abuse, persistent lies, racist and sexist statements, etc.). 

Over 76 million Americans voted for Trump despite evidence that he is unfit for office. Tens of millions of these voters rejected the evidence. They believe Trump that the election was stolen, that he didn’t try to overturn the results, that the transfer of power was peaceful, and that Biden and Democrats weaponized the justice system against him. But tens of millions more of these voters simply decided they were willing to vote for Trump in spite of the evidence. In essence, their concerns about the economy, high inflation, illegal immigration, the right to life, protecting their 2^nd Amendment rights, and other causes outweighed their concerns about Trump’s fitness for office.

While half of voters ignored or overlooked Trump’s evident unfitness at the ballot box, there is no guarantee that tens of millions of them won’t change their minds. Past history predicts that Trump will be unpopular in fairly short order. Many of his decisions and policy actions will be controversial. He will likely fail to deliver on many promises.  And he will be blamed for many problems. While MAGA adherents won’t change their minds, millions are likely to have “buyer’s remorse.”  

Going forward, the country is at a crossroads on the matter of character and fitness for office.  We appear to be moving in a direction where the facts, truth, fitness for office, and even criminal behavior don’t matter. Most of the impetus for this direction is due to Trump and the MAGA movement. Are Americans really okay with the idea that all candidates should be free lie persistently, cheat, and commit crimes? What becomes of America when all voters concoct their own version of reality and the truth, however divorced it may be from actual reality and the facts?

• Kamala Harris lost because she was not the best candidate, she chose the wrong running mate, and she didn’t run a good campaign.

I would argue that this is the weakest of the reasons to explain Harris’ loss. Because of Biden’s very late decision not to run, there was no time to have a competition. It’s speculative to argue whether she would have emerged as the best candidate. Many say she could have won if she had chosen Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate. Again, this is speculative, especially since Trump ended up winning all the other battleground states.  Finally, it’s easy to play armchair quarterback over the way Harris ran her campaign. There were slip ups, such as when she answered, “nothing comes to mind” when asked about what she would do differently than Biden. This undoubtedly cost her some votes, but it wasn’t a slip up that cost her the election.   

Going forward, political parties can avoid all of these potential pitfalls by selecting their candidates, including replacements, in a timely manner.

Conclusion

History tells us that neither the Republicans’ wildest dreams nor the Democrats’ worst fears will come to pass because of the 2024 election. Trump won and Harris lost because of the combined effects of numerous factors, few of which are new or surprising. We run the risk of overreacting to some of these factors if we look at them in isolation. The best way to determine the way forward is to examine all the factors in a comprehensive analysis.

Democrats, in particular, need not panic. Trump, like other recent presidents, is likely to become unpopular, suffer low approval ratings, and be challenged in his exercise of power. He made many promises that entail huge fiscal effects. This means he and the Republicans must wrestle with either ballooning the National Debt or not making good on promises. Tariffs are his hole card to produce needed revenues. But revenue streams will be unpredictable, and the costs of tariffs are likely to get passed onto the American consumer, increasing the risk of inflation. Also, many of his actions are likely to be controversial, such as his promise to carry out mass deportations. 

Trump will likely be able to pass significant policy changes in his first two years. But he may well face the loss of one or both chambers of Congress in 2026. Finally, just as he and the Republicans blamed Biden and the Democrats for numerous problems, Democrats will be able to blame Trump and the Republicans for numerous problems that affect the well-being of Americans. The shoe is on the other foot now.  

Trump will undoubtedly use his presidential powers to issue hundreds of executive orders. Some of these will probably attempt to expand his authority in conflict with the Constitution’s separation of powers. Expect many of his orders to be challenged in court, including many that will be put on hold while their fate is determined.  Also expect rulings to change as decisions are appealed to higher courts.  It’s going to be a bumpy and unpredictable ride.

Probably the most critical question regarding the 2024 election is the direction of the country when it comes to the facts, truth, character, and fitness for office.  For the first time in our history, we elected a president who is a convicted felon.  We have a president who tried to overturn the results of a free and fair election. And we have a majority of American voters who either don’t believe these facts or who are willing to overlook them in voting for their priorities. Will we keep going in this direction, or will we turn away? This is the question we all need to be thinking about and answering.