If you listen to Republican officeholders and the conservative media, they’ve been telling us for almost two years that Biden is solely responsible for high inflation; and that he and the Democrats have utterly failed to address the problem. They want voters to kick Democrats out of office in the upcoming November midterm elections.

If you study economics, US history, and inflation, you’ll see that U.S. Presidents have very little to do with either creating or controlling inflation. Rather, economic cycles are the result of numerous factors, most of which are not controlled by governments or the President. Thus, for instance, the high inflation that the US and most of the countries in the World are experiencing is due to economic disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, including supply chain issues. If you study prior economic cycles, you’ll see that events such as wars, pandemics, national or worldwide disasters, or other emergencies have triggered recessions, high inflation, spikes in unemployment, and other negative conditions. And, yes, you’ll also see that government coming to the rescue with stimulus packages and other relief is one factor (but far from the sole or controlling factor) that has some effect on the rate of inflation.

If you further study how the economy is controlled in the United States, you’ll see that we have established the Federal Reserve System (Fed) as the central banking system for the country. The Fed–and not the U.S. President—is in the driver’s seat when it comes to addressing high inflation, interest rates, and other economic conditions.

If you study prior periods of high inflation in the United States, you’ll see that they were a response to changes in the business cycle, the natural rise and fall of economic growth that occurs over time. When inflation rates surge, the historic response by the Fed has been to raise interest rates. Doing so slows down the economy and gradually—I mean gradually—brings down the rate of inflation. Unfortunately, the solution involves some difficult side effects. In particular, higher interest rates make it harder for business and individuals to borrow money and pay down debt. Also, higher interest rates have tended to lead to higher rates of unemployment. Finally, if interest rates are raised too aggressively, the economy may fall into recession.

This brings us to yesterday (August 26, 2022), when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Americans that the cure we are seeking—the lowering of inflation—is going to take time, that there is going to be some pain, and that this pain is unavoidable if we are going to succeed in the cure. Here are his exact words:

“Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

Chairman Powell’s remarks made it clear that the Fed is not done raising interest rates. There will be more increases in the not-too-distant future, and this prospect made investors and businesses very unhappy. It will also make it harder for Americans to buy houses, cars, or manage credit card debt. We can expect some businesses to fail or lay off employees. In essence, much of the pain Powell described is yet to come.

In the coming weeks and months, look for Republican officials and the conservative media to exploit the temporary hardships that are likely to occur along the way to a significant lowering of inflation rates. With additional interest rate hikes in the near term, it’s very possible we could see short-term increases in unemployment, more business failures or contractions, and more Americans struggling to make ends meet. Republican leaders and the conservative media will paint these hardships as further proof that the President and the Democrats have failed to address the problem that they alone created.

If we looked at high inflation as Americans—and not as Republicans or Democrats—we’d understand that the condition is largely the result of economic dislocations caused by a worldwide pandemic. Most of the countries in the world are struggling with the condition, America included. And we, the people, have a common interest in bringing inflation under control. In our country, we have entrusted the Fed with control over this matter; and, in past instances of high inflation, the Fed has been successful in solving the problem. It won’t happen overnight, however; and in the process there will be some hardship for businesses and American households. There could be higher levels of unemployment, and it’s even possible the country could be thrown into recession if the Fed doesn’t get it just right.

It’s a shame—no, a tragedy—that so many Americans have been deceived into believing that the US President is responsible for a condition that was largely created because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Virtually every country in the world is fighting high inflation; and yet we are being told to ignore this fact and hold Biden responsible. As Americans, we should be uniting around a commitment to lower inflation. We should trust the Fed to carry out its role, as it has successfully done in the past. And we should understand that the solution won’t be immediate or without pain to American households and businesses. We should understand that this temporary hardship is part of the cure, and we should support one another with resolve to get to better days ahead.