Part 3 of a 3-Part Series

In this final article of a 3-part series we focus on Trump’s case regarding the threats of illegal immigration. Is the case mostly based on legitimate narratives supported by reliable and ample evidence?  Or is the case mostly a baseless demonization of immigrants aimed at blaming the Biden Administration and winning the the presidency?   We’ll answer these questions, including what Americans should do going forward, after examining the key elements of Trump’s case.

Here are the key elements of Trump’s case:

• The Biden Administration allowed an “invasion” of illegal immigrants that swells the country’s total to 20-25 million, compared to 10.5 million when Trump left office.
• Millions of those apprehended are summarily released into the interior, sometimes without a court date, after being briefly detained.
• Millions of Illegal immigrants escaped jails, prisons, and asylums in their home countries, bringing crime, disease, and mental illness.
• Countries “throughout the world” are emptying out their prisons and jails and dumping these inmates into the US.
• Illegal immigrants triggered a “migrant crime wave” in the US, including a spike in violent crime.
• Illegal immigrants are smuggling drugs, especially fentanyl, resulting in some 300,000 drug overdose deaths each year.
• Illegal immigrants are taking away millions of jobs from Americans, including “Black and Latino jobs.”
• Illegal immigrants are competing for scarce homes, and driving up prices, resulting in millions of Americans being denied homeownership.
• Illegal immigrants are eating the cats, dogs and family pets of Americans.
• Illegal immigrants are being signed up to vote and could vote in upcoming elections, despite prohibitions.
• Illegal immigrants are costing government hundreds of billions of dollars in enforcement, subsidies and social services that should be spent on citizens.
• Mass deportation of illegal immigrants is necessary because the Biden Administration allowed them to invade the country and cause terrible harms.

The Biden Administration allowed an “invasion” of illegal immigrants that swelled the country’s total to 20-25 million, compared to 10.5 million when Trump left office.

Trump recently said, “Kamala Harris has allowed 21 million illegals to pour in from all over the world.”  At the Vice-Presidential debate, Vance put the number at 20-25 million.  These estimates have been fact-checked as “false” and debunked by experts.  

As previously noted, official estimates by the Department of Homeland Security (January 2021 and April 2024) put the number of undocumented immigrants at around 11 million in 2022. The DHS number squares with estimates from the Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies. And, all these sources agree on an estimate of 10.5 million undocumented immigrants when Trump left office.

Trump, Vance, and Republicans derive their estimate using an entirely different and novel methodology. They argue that the number of “encounters” reported by US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) is a valid proxy for the number of people who illegally entered and remain in the country.  To this number they add the count of observed “got aways”—those immigrants that federal authorities failed to catch and observed getting away. 

Here’s the math.  During Biden’s four years, there were a total of 10,825,387 encounters (Nationwide).  There were also approximately 2,000,000 “got aways” according to Border Security Metrics Reports and other Border Patrol data.  To these numbers we add 10,500,000, the estimated number of illegal immigrants at the time Trump left office.  The total of these three figures is 23,325,387.   

A major problem with this approach is that it does not account for migrants who were “encountered” but no longer remain in the country.  Many of those encountered were subsequently removed, administratively returned, or expelled.  The 2022 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (see Table 39) notes that Biden Administration expelled 1,071,074 migrants in 2021, and 1,103,966 in 2022.  It also removed, administratively returned, and otherwise returned over 600,000 migrants in these two years.  A separate report for 2023 shows 142,580 removals and 62,545 expulsions during that year. The total removals and expulsions for these three years (not including 2024) sits at almost 3 million (2,980,165).  For the full fiscal year 2024, preliminary data show that DHS completed over 700,000 removals and returns.  Thus, around 3.7 million immigrants can no longer be counted as remaining in the country.

Another significant problem with this approach is that a single migrant might be apprehended several times during a fiscal year. Each instance is recorded as an “encounter.”  CPB refers to this as “recidivism,” which is the percentage of individuals apprehended more than one time by the Border Patrol within a fiscal year.

Recidivism rates jumped beginning in 2020, when migrants could be summarily expelled because of Covid-19.  For 2021, the recidivism rate was 27% (rates for 2022 and 2023 are not yet published). This means the 1,956,519 encounters for 2021 significantly exceed the actual number of immigrants involved. Of the immigrants apprehended, 27% were encountered two, three, or more times.  Thus, “encounters” tell us the number of apprehensions, but the actual number of immigrants involved is significantly lower.

In summary, the estimate of 20-25 million illegal immigrants is both highly exaggerated and lacking in validity.  This fact seriously undercuts Trump’s claim of an “invasion.”  In fact, if we were to apply the same methodology to Trump’s four years in office, there would have been 14,653,500 illegal aliens in the country when he left office. This includes 3,132,269 encounters + 521,247 “got aways” + 11 million when he took office).  This number is more than 4.1 million above the official estimate.

Millions of those apprehended are summarily released into the interior, with or without a court date (notice to appear), after being detained briefly.

The Republican-controlled House Committee on Homeland Security condemns the Biden Administration in a recent report. It found, “Since January 20, 2021, DHS has paroled more than two million inadmissible aliens into the interior and released roughly two million more with ‘Notices to Appear’ (NTAs).”  

These practices, pejoratively called “catch and release” are criticized by Trump and Republicans. Unauthorized immigrants aren’t being held in custody.  Instead, they are released, often without a court date, to await further immigration proceedings.  Since there is a huge backlog in the immigration courts, these migrants can remain in the country for several years (up to five or more) before their fate is determined.

Former President Trump took executive action to create a “Remain in Mexico” policy. It required many of those apprehended to go back to Mexico pending the outcome of their immigration case.  The program went into effect in January 2019, and was used to send nearly 70,000 migrants back to Mexico.  President Biden suspended and then terminated the program before briefly reinstating it late in 2021.  Since then, the Mexican government has indicated its opposition to restarting the program. 

It’s true that the sharp increase in “encounters” created significant problems regarding enforcement.  Even the Trump Administration wrestled with the lack of detention facilities, especially in 2019, when there were over 1.175 million encounters nationwide.  The Remain in Mexico program was a piece of the solution, but its limited capacity (70,000) did not begin to address the sharp increase in encounters in that year. 

With the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, worldwide migration slowed to a crawl. The Trump Administration also implemented emergency rules related to the pandemic (“Title 42”).  The policy allowed illegal immigrants to be “expelled,” without a hearing, for health and safety reasons.  With the reduced number of encounters in 2020 (only 609,000), and the ability to expel most migrants, Trump was able to finish his term with very little reliance on “catch and release.” 

It’s not true, however, that the 3.1 million illegal immigrants apprehended during the Trump Administration were either detained in the US or forced to wait in Mexico.  In FY 2020, the immigration court backlog reached 1,262,765 million cases.  The vast majority of these individuals were neither waiting in Mexico nor being held in US detention facilities. 

With the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, the rationale for Title 42 (immediate expulsion for health and safety reasons) was no longer viable. Title 42 ended in May of 2023. The Biden Administration had used this authority to expel over a million migrants a year in both 2021 and 2022.  This left the Biden Administration with limited options to handle the sharp increase in encounters. Detention facilities were limited. The Remain in Mexico program was terminated. And there was no longer any authority to expel migrants for health and safety reasons. This left the option of releasing migrants with a notice to appear (NTA) or on their Own Recognizance. By the summer of 2023, the numbers of those released with a NTA or Own Recognizance began to shoot up. By December of 2023, the number reached a record 191,782 (see Dispositions and Transfers). 

During the summer and fall of 2023 Biden worked with Republicans on a bipartisan compromise to give the president more authority to close the border, increase detention beds, and add more immigration judges to reduce the backlog in immigration cases.  A deal was struck in February 2024. But Trump rejected this compromise and Republican lawmakers refused to support the bill.

Four months later, in June of 2024, President Biden took executive action. The order barred migrants who unlawfully cross the Southern border from seeking asylum when “encounters” exceeded specified levels. Monthly encounters immediately plummeted in July, August, and September. Releases of migrants also plummeted. In July, the Border Patrol released 12,000 migrants with notices to appear in immigration court, down from 28,000 in June and 62,000 in May.

Trump and Republicans condemn Biden for waiting 3½ years before taking this executive action.  Biden and Harris responded by insisting Congressional action is necessary to fix the broken immigration system.  Presidents need clear statutory authority to close the border and restrict asylum.  Congress also needs to provide resources for more Border Patrol agents, more detention facilities, and more immigration judges to reduce court backlogs. Without clear authority to close the border and limit asylum, executive actions are vulnerable to legal challenge.  In fact, Biden’s June action has was immediately challenged.

Millions of Illegal immigrants have escaped jails, prisons, and asylums in their home countries, bringing crime, disease, and mental illness; and countries “throughout the world” are emptying out their prisons and jails and dumping inmates into the US.

On May 24, 2024, Trump condemned Biden as the worst president in history, saying, “He’s letting millions of people from jails, from prisons, from insane asylums, from mental institutions, drug dealers, pour in.” 

PolitiFact analyzed this statement and found:

“The Trump campaign provided no evidence to support this claim to PolitiFact, and news articles the campaign has previously cited don’t prove that millions of such immigrants are coming into the U.S.

Are there some immigrants with criminal records who try getting into the U.S.? Yes. But Trump’s statement about “millions” is a gross exaggeration. We rate this statement Pants on Fire!”

Trump’s campaign also has not provided any proof or support to back claims that countries around the world are emptying out their jails, prisons, and mental institutions and sending them to America.  Newsweek debunks the claim, as does Cronkite News.  PolitiFact also debunked as “Pants on Fire” Trump’s claim that the Congo released prisoners and sent them to America.

Illegal immigrants have triggered a “migrant crime wave” in the US, including a spike in violent crime.

Very recently, in a speech in Aurora, Colorado, Trump was specific about crime committed by gangs of illegal immigrants and the fact that Biden and Harris were ruining the country:

“Kamala has imported an army of illegal alien gang members and migrant criminals from the dungeons of the third world,” said Trump. “And she has had them resettled, beautifully, into your community to prey upon innocent American citizens, that’s what they’re doing. And no place is it more evident than right here.”

The Republican-controlled House Committee on Homeland Security recently documented its concerns about too many criminals being let into the US. Many criminals are briefly detained and then released into the interior, placed on the “Non-Detained Docket” (NDD). Here are some of the Committee’s findings:

“Since the start of Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, the Border Patrol has recorded more than 53,000 arrests of illegal aliens with criminal backgrounds . . .  By October 2023, agents were apprehending around 47 illegal aliens with “serious criminal histories” per day.”

“As of July 21, 2024, nearly 650,000 criminal aliens were on the NDD—meaning they had previously been encountered by CBP, turned over to ICE, had their criminal history documented, and then were released into the United States.” 

Of these criminal aliens on the Non-Detained Docket, some 13,099 have been convicted of homicide.   Trump and Republicans cite this statistic as proof that alien murderers are roaming the country. 

There are problems with the convicted murderers argument, however.  First, the 13,099 number doesn’t mean these individuals are inside the US and roaming free.  These individuals simply aren’t in ICE custody.  They may have fled the country, or they may be in prison or jail in the US.  Further, the 13,099 number doesn’t mean these individuals entered the US during Biden’s term.  In fact, the Non-Detained Docket goes back 40 years. 

It is also the case that the 650,000 criminals on the Non-Detained Docket weren’t all added during the Biden Administration. Nor are all these individuals convicted criminals (about a third face criminal charges). During Trump’s term the Non-Detained Docket grew from around 368,000 to around 400,000.  Also, releases of criminal migrants fell after Biden took office compared to the Trump administration.  Finally, US law requires migrants who are convicted of homicide to be detained pending their deportation, although there are limited exceptions.

Findings from the House Committee on Homeland Security are very misleading. They imply that all the people on the NDD are convicted criminals who invaded the US during the Biden Administration. Worse, they imply that all these criminals were released by Biden and are now roaming the streets. Trump and his Republican colleagues have thus issued false and misleading statements to support their assertion of a “Migrant Crime Wave.” More broadly speaking, the notion of a “migrant crime wave” has been debunked again and again and again.

Illegal immigrants are smuggling drugs, especially fentanyl, resulting in some 300,000 overdose deaths each year.

Trump claims that under Biden, “More drugs are coming into our country right now than at any time in our history, times five or times six.”

Also he said,  “300,000 people are dying a year” in the U.S. from drugs, and said the figure is “probably more than that.”

Data on the total quantity of illegal drugs smuggled into the US does not exist.  However, CBP does track the weight of drugs seized by border personnel. Since there is no data on the total quantity of smuggled drugs, some analysts use this seizure data as a proxy for how much is smuggled into the country.  When more drugs are seized, this is viewed as an indicator that more drugs are coming into the country.

According to CPB data, total drug seizures declined during Biden’s term, but fentanyl seizures increased until 2023, and are now declining.  Here are the numbers: 

• Total Drug Seizures:  2021 913K (kilos), 2022 656K, 2023 549 K, 2024 498K
• Fentanyl Seizures: 2021 11.2K (kilos), 2022 14.7K, 2023 27K, 2024 19.7K

According to CBP data, during Trump’s term annual fentanyl seizures went from about 700 pounds to 4,800 pounds, a 586% increase in fentanyl seizures when he was in office.  Thus, fentanyl seizures increased during both presidencies, and actually peaked during Trump’s presidency.

Moreover, there is clear evidence that it is not illegal immigrants who are smuggling the bulk of fentanyl into the US. Rather, it is American citizens.  A Kaiser Family Foundation study found,

“[M]ost fentanyl is being trafficked by American citizens, not migrants. Data from the United States Sentencing Commission shows that 86.4 percent of those sentenced for trafficking fentanyl were U.S. citizens.” 

Similar conclusions are reported by the Cato Institute and NPR. Thus, it’s valid to blame and go after drug traffickers and drug cartels. But ending illegal immigration and blaming illegal immigrants won’t solve the problem of drug smuggling and fentanyl deaths. And, both Presidents own this problem.

As to drug overdose deaths and fentanyl overdose deaths, data from the National Center for Health Statistics indicate deaths are no way near Trump’s number of 300,000.  In fact, as you can see from the the Center’s graphs below, overdose deaths are trending down.  They increased the latter part of Trump’s term and the first 3 years of Biden’s term.  Total overdose deaths and fentanyl overdose deaths were at 94,788 and 58,908 respectively when Trump left office. They peaked at about 111,000 and 77,000 respectively in the summer of 2023, and they are now down to 94,758 and 63,400 respectively (May 2024).  Both Presidents thus own the drug overdose death problem.

Illegal immigrants are taking away millions of jobs from Americans, including “Black and Latino jobs.”

At a campaign rally in Nevada in June Trump said, “Virtually 100% of the new jobs under Biden have also gone to illegal aliens.” 

Later, in August, at a town hall meeting in Wisconsin he stated that illegal aliens were taking 107% of the jobs being created.  He also recently said that the Black unemployment rate was “through the roof.”

Forbes and CNN debunked these statements as false.  Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that 59% of employment growth under Biden was for U.S.-born workers.

On the other hand, the Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative and anti-immigration think tank, argues immigrants are taking away jobs. It finds, “three-fourths of employment growth since 2019 went to legal and illegal immigrants.”  

But the Center’s finding is countered by actual statistics on new jobs since Biden became President in January 2021.  Employment of U.S.-born workers increased more than employment of foreign-born workers, which includes those in the U.S. both illegally and legally.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that total employment for the native-born population increased by almost 7.4 million under Biden, from 123.07 million in January 2021 to 130.45 million in May of 2024. Meanwhile, employment of foreign-born workers increased by about 5.6 million – from an estimated 25,318,000 in January 2021 to 30,896,000 in May 2024.

Further, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) economic data show that under Biden, unemployment rates for Blacks and Latinos remain at or near all-time lows.   PBS also debunked Trump’s claim that illegal immigrants are taking Black and Latino jobs.

Many studies and surveys address the question of whether undocumented immigrants take jobs from Americans.  Economists conclude that the undocumented take jobs that Americans don’t want.   And, Pew Research surveys consistently find that most Americans believe undocumented immigrants take jobs Americans don’t want.  For instance, a June 2020 survey found 77% of Americans, including 66% of Republicans, believe the undocumented mostly fill jobs US citizens don’t want. 

Pew Research (July 2024) finds that about 8.3 million unauthorized immigrants are in the US workforce as of 2022, comprising about 4.8% of all workers. The 8.3 million number remains relatively stable since 2007, although it declined somewhat during Trump’s term.

The Center for Immigration Studies also argues, in Congressional testimony, that the predominance of undocumented workers in some jobs operates to suppress wages for those jobs. It also argues that native-born men with no more than a high school education are being squeezed out of the labor force (labor force participation). However, when we examine the Center’s evidence, we see that wage suppression and being squeezed out of the labor force has been happening over decades, going back to the 1960’s.  In addition, its research addresses these trends in terms of both legal and illegal immigration, and not on illegal immigration alone.  There is no proof that wages of native-born workers were suppressed during Biden’s term of office.  Nor is there proof that native-born workers are being squeezed out of the labor market because of undocumented workers.  

Illegal immigrants are competing for scarce homes, and driving up prices, resulting in millions of Americans being denied homeownership.

Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance argues that one of the most significant drivers of home prices in the US is undocumented immigrants.  At the recent Vice-Presidential debate, he said:

“You’ve got housing that is totally unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans for scarce homes.”

Economists and Harris running mate Tim Walz argue the reasons for the housing crisis are more nuanced. They say it is unfair to place primary blame on undocumented immigrants.  Most of the increase in housing prices (including rents) occurred in 2020 and 2021, when illegal immigration dropped during Trump’s term.  As illegal immigration purportedly surged in 2022 and 2023, home prices and rents started to decline.  Economists argue trends in interest rates and the pandemic-induced demand for housing were mostly responsible for the recent trends in housing costs. The overall and persistent shortage of housing for many years is the primary driver of housing prices.   

In addition, it’s untenable to argue that all undocumented immigrants (whether 11 million or 20 million) are competing for homes.  Demographic data from the Migration Policy Institute show that 28% of the country’s 11.05 million undocumented immigrants (3.069 million) already own a home. 62% of the undocumented have been in the US for 10 or more years, and 78% were already in the country when Trump came into office.  

Thus, Vance’s argument is the immigrants arriving after Biden came into office (3.8 million according to the conservative Center for Immigration Studies) is a primary driver of home prices.  Considering that most of these migrants are poor, working at low wage jobs, minors, or family members, only a small portion could be in a position to compete for housing.  In fact, the vast majority of recent immigrants are renters, not buyers. Of households headed by an immigrant who arrived over the last two years, 89.5 percent said they were renters, according to the Center for Immigration Studies.

The Center for Immigration Studies argues, in Congressional testimony, that illegal immigration has negatively affected housing affordability.  Much of its analysis is based on its estimate that the illegal immigrant population increased by 3.8 million since Biden came into office (from 10.2 million to 14 million).  We have seen above that only a very small percentage of these 3.8 million migrants are in a position to compete for housing.  Also, much of its analysis is based on the overall increase in both legal and illegal immigration.  

Illegal immigrants are eating the cats, dogs and family pets of Americans.

During presidential debate on September 14^th, Trump said:

“In Springfield, they are eating the dogs. The people that came in, they are eating the cats. They’re eating – they are eating the pets of the people that live there.”

Since then, Trump has repeated this baseless claim several times, and he has refused to say the story isn’t true.  He simply maintains he is repeating what has been reported. 

There have been no credible reports of Haitians eating pets, and officials in Ohio, including the Republican city manager and Republican Governor Mike DeWine, have repeatedly said the story is untrue.

Illegal immigrants are being signed up to vote and could vote in upcoming elections, despite prohibitions.

Trump and his allies have claimed that if he loses in November, it will be because a massive number of undocumented immigrants broke federal law and voted for his political opponents. 

He has also said (January 5, 2024, Sioux Center, Iowa) that millions of illegal immigrants are being signed up to vote:  

“That’s why they are allowing these people to come in — people that don’t speak our language — they are signing them up to vote. . . And I believe that’s why you are having millions of people pour into our country and it could very well affect the next election. That’s why they are doing it.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson has said that Biden, “welcomed millions and millions of illegal aliens” and “the millions that have been paroled can simply go to their local welfare office or the DMV and register to vote.”

PolitiFact has evaluated Trump’s statements and rated them as “Pants on Fire” false. Trump provided no evidence to back up his statements.  Under current law, only U.S. citizens can vote in federal elections.  Proven incidents of noncitizens casting ballots are rare, and this has been the case for many years.  Even immigrants who arrive now and apply for citizenship won’t be able to vote because the citizenship process takes more than a decade.   

PolitiFact has also evaluated Mike Johnson’s statement and rated it as “false.” If a migrant granted parole decides to submit a voter registration application, election officials will vet and verify it.  Just submitting a form doesn’t automatically register a person to vote.  Johnson provided no data to prove it’s a widespread problem.

The BBC did an extensive analysis of whether voting by illegal immigrants is widespread or a problem.  It concluded that many safeguards are already in place, and that noncitizen voting is rare.  It also concluded that extensive social media ads posted on Facebook by Republicans were sowing doubt about illegal immigrants voting in elections.

Illegal immigrants are costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in enforcement, subsidies and social services that should be spent on citizens.

In December of 2018, Trump tweeted: “[O]ur Country losses [sic] 250 Billion Dollars a year on illegal immigration, not including the terrible drug flow. Top Border Security, including a Wall, is $25 Billion. Pays for itself in two months. Get it done!”

The Federation for Immigration Reform (FAIR) regularly produces and updates reports on the costs of illegal immigration.  Its most recent cost study in 2023 estimated the total cost to be $150.7 billion annually.  FAIR arrives at this number by taking the total costs of illegal immigration ($182 billion), and subtracting taxes paid by illegal immigrants ($32 billion). 

Costs to the federal government total about $66.5 billion, which includes expenditures for education, medical, enforcement, and welfare. Enforcement ($25 billion) and medical ($23 billion) are the largest.  Costs to states and cities total about $115.6 billion, which includes expenditures for education, medical, administration of justice, and welfare. Education ($73+ billion), Administration of Justice ($21.8 billion) and medical ($18.6 billion) are the largest. 

While $150.7 billion annually is certainly a huge cost, how much of this cost is due to the Biden Administration’s policies?  FAIR’s previous cost report was published in 2017, and estimated a total cost of $119.5 Billion.  Thus, the annual cost went up by about $30 billion during Trump’s four years in office and Biden’s first 2 years.

FAIR’s cost estimates and methodology have been criticized as “fatally flawed” and “overstated.”  A major problem is how FAIR treats education costs.  Under US Supreme Court decisions going back to 1982, children of illegal immigrants must be provided K-12 education.  FAIR not only includes the cost of educating immigrant children born outside of the US, but also immigrant children born in the US.  Children born in the US are citizens; nonetheless, FAIR includes them as a cost of illegal immigration. 

In summary, most of the costs of illegal immigration have occurred over decades, under both Republican and Democratic Administrations.  By far, the largest area of expenditure involves educating children, which has long been required by law.  Mandatory K-12 education is neither a policy that Biden implemented nor a policy that Trump changed. Thus, it is both wrong and inaccurate to state that Biden’s policies on illegal immigration are costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

Mass deportation of illegal immigrants is necessary because the Biden Administration allowed them to invade the country and cause terrible harms.

Using his number of 20-25 million illegal immigrants and the failure of the Biden Administration to stop the invasion, Trump repeatedly says that mass deportation is necessary to stop all the harms. He also repeatedly says he will conduct “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” if reelected.  He says this would involve the deportation of between 15 to 20 million people. 

The impracticality, prohibitive cost, and potential harms of such a mass deportation are reported in numerous publications, including Forbes, The Economic Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Examiner, CNN, Brookings, and many other sources. The American Immigration Council estimates it would cost $88 billion annually to deport one million per year, with a total cost of nearly a trillion dollars. 

To drastically reduce costs and expedite the deportations, Trump says he will invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This law allows a president to detain or deport the natives and citizens of an enemy nation during times of war or invasion by a foreign nation or government. It permits the president, by proclamation, to detain or deport immigrants without a hearing and based only on their country of birth or citizenship. 

If Trump were to invoke the Alien Enemies Act it would surely be challenged in court. The law only applies during times of declared war or an invasion or incursion by a foreign nation or government. Trump would have to prove that the invasions of illegal immigrants were directed by a foreign nation or government.  Given past behavior, it is likely that Trump would invoke the Alien Enemies Act and then defend its use when legally challenged.  He is clearly attempting to lay the groundwork for invoking the law with his repeated narratives. America has been invaded, and countries are emptying out their prisons and insane asylums and sending these miscreants to America.

As noted earlier, Trump’s claims of 20-25 million illegal immigrants and that countries are emptying out their prisons, jails, and mental institutions are not backed by evidence.  In fact, the claims are debunked and established as false.  

Finally, a mass deportation of the scale proposed by Trump would have devastating effects on the US economy.  Those effects are discussed by several organizations and media outlets, including The American Migration Council, The New Republic, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Politico, and even the conservative Wall Street Journal.

Our review of Trump’s case reveals that most of his talking points are either false, unproven, or vastly exaggerated; and, in addition, many are aimed at fearmongering and demonization of illegal immigrants for political purposes.

Here’s a summary of what we learned from examining the key elements of Trump’s case:

• The estimate of 20-25 million illegal immigrants is exaggerated, not supported by research, and flawed in its methodology. It is certainly possible that the number of illegal immigrants is more than the official estimate of 11 million by DHS.  But it’s wrong to unequivocally insist on a number twice that amount when it can’t be supported.  The use of such an exaggerated and unproven figure is aimed at denigrating Biden’s efforts to secure the border and fanning voters’ concerns about the threat of illegal immigration.
• Yes, since Biden has been in office, millions of migrants have been paroled or released. The option of detention is limited by a lack of facilities, which also plagued the Trump Administration.  The option of “Remain in Mexico” is no longer acceptable to the Mexican government and has limited capacity.  And the option of “expelling” migrants under Title 42 not available because the health emergency ended.  Existing laws make it impossible or difficult for Presidents to shut down the border and unilaterally turn away undocumented immigrants or asylees.  Congressional action is also needed to provide resources to eliminate immigration court backlogs that were already over 1.2 million under Trump.  Trump and Republicans rejected a bipartisan solution to address these needs.  Biden took executive action to control the border, but this action is vulnerable to legal challenge.
• There is no evidence or proof that millions of illegal immigrants have escaped jails, prisons, or mental institutions to come to the US.  Nor is there evidence or proof that countries around the world are emptying out their prisons and sending them to the US. These false and unproven allegations are being used to stoke voters’ fears that the flood of migrants mostly consists of criminals and mentally deranged individuals.  Biden and Harris are to blame, and Trump would never allow this to occur.
• The notion of a “migrant crime wave” has been debunked.  The “Non-Detained Docket” has been mischaracterized and cherry-picked to give Americans the impression that over 13,000 murderers and 650,000 immigrant criminals are out roaming the streets because of Biden.  Trump’s rhetoric is specifically tailored to incite fear and anger over migrant crime, gangs, and violence.  He is using the lies and mischaracterizations to stoke fear, blame Biden and Harris, and improve his chances of winning the presidency. 
• Drug cartels and smuggling of drugs, including fentanyl, is certainly a problem. However, Trump is lying when he says that more drugs are coming in under Biden, times five or six. He is also vastly exaggerating when he says there are 300,000 or more overdose deaths per year.  In fact, both total overdose deaths and fentanyl overdose deaths are now in decline under Biden.  Also, it is untrue that illegal immigrants are smuggling most of the fentanyl.  In fact, it is American citizens.  These false statements and exaggerations are aimed at blaming Biden/Harris and improving Trump’s chances of winning the presidency. 
• Illegal immigrants are not taking away jobs from Americans, including “Black” and “Latino” jobs. Black and Latino unemployment rates are not “through the roof.” In fact, they remain at near-historic lows.  A large share of new jobs created during the Biden Administration are going to native-born Americans. Further, both research and American public opinion say that illegal immigrants mostly take jobs Americans don’t want. Trump’s false statement that 100% of jobs are going to illegal immigrants is aimed at stoking fear and anger among Black and Latino voters.  Meanwhile, undocumented immigrants are demonized, and Trump aims to improve his chances of winning the presidency. 
• Illegal immigrants aren’t preventing native-born Americans from homeownership by competing for scarce homes and driving up prices. Most recent arrivals are renting and do not have the resources to purchase a home.  Stating that illegal immigrants are preventing many Americans from homeownership is aimed at stoking anger and fear in Americans and pinning blame on Biden/Harris for allowing this to happen.  Meanwhile undocumented immigrants are demonized while Trump and Vance aim to increase their chances of winning.
• Illegal immigrants are not eating the dogs, cats, and family pets of Americans.  These stories have been debunked, yet Trump and Vance won’t acknowledge they are false.  Saying that immigrants eat family pets is aimed at stoking fear and anger towards illegal immigrants.  Biden and Harris are blamed for the invasion that is allowing this to happen.  Illegal immigrants are thus demonized, and Biden/Harris wrongfully blamed, so that Trump and Vance improve their chances of winning in November.
• Illegal immigrants do impose significant costs on federal, state, and local governments.  But the largest area of cost involves providing education to children, which has long been required by Supreme Court decisions.  Costs imposed by illegal immigration have been significant for decades, including under the Trump Administration.  Both the Trump and Biden Administrations bear responsibility for the $30 billion increase in costs reflected in FAIR’s estimates in 2017 and 2023. 
• A mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants on the scale proposed by Trump would have a devastating effect on the US economy.  In addition, it would be extremely costly and logistically difficult to pull off.  Trump has not proved his assertion that the “invasion” currently results in 20-25 million illegal immigrants living in the country.  And most of the harms he describes in his talking points have been debunked and proven to be false. 

Beyond our review of Trump’s talking points on illegal immigration, he has made several other statements that unquestionably define his intent to demonize illegal immigrants in a manner that is discriminatory and racist.

Trump has said on multiple occasions that illegal immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” 

Trump has said that illegal immigrants are “animals” and “not human.”

Trump’s enmity towards migrants extends to those of the legal variety. In January 2018, in rejecting a bipartisan immigration deal, he questioned why the U.S. would accept more immigrants from Haiti and “shithole countries” in Africa, rather than countries like Norway.

Trump can lie, grossly exaggerate, falsely blame, demonize, stoke fear and anger, and even make racist statements against illegal and legal immigrants; but it is incumbent upon Americans to validate what he is saying and hold him accountable for false and demonizing assertions.

The First Amendment provides Trump with freedom to say virtually anything he wants regarding illegal immigration.  He can make up statistics and stories. He can blame Biden and Harris for something they didn’t do. He can play on the fear and anger of Americans. And he can even make statements that are clearly racist and intended to connect with like-minded individuals.  Presidents and politicians are not required to tell the truth or be evenhanded in what they’re saying. They aren’t prohibited from making racist statements. 

Writing this series has prompted me to worry that many Americans accept Trump’s talking points at face value.  We’re justifiably troubled by conditions at the border. But we’re embracing some problematic narratives without seeing much evidence or critical thinking.  Sadly, we’ve done this in the past. We have allowed too many populations to be demonized in our nation’s history.

I believe we, the people, have a duty to decide what we think about a presidential candidate who engages in such untrue and demonizing behaviors.  Each of us needs to take a more active role in validating the talking points and deciding whether the candidate who makes them is worthy of our support.  While the verdict regarding Trump is clear in my mind, I’ll leave it to you to make your own decision. 

Going forward, the country faces legitimate concerns regarding illegal and legal immigration.  It’s appropriate to discuss and assess legal immigration.  It’s appropriate to consider how to bring more security to our borders regarding unauthorized immigration.  It’s appropriate to weigh the potential benefits and detriments involved with a mass deportation, as it would have enormous economic effects and be very expensive.  A president, acting unilaterally, should not dictate such critical decisions.  Rather, Congress, working with the president, needs to act to fix many aspects of a broken system. 

We can proceed evenhandedly, with bipartisan compromise, and without demonizing illegal immigrants or pinning false blame on one another.  Please take a hard look at what Trump is saying about illegal immigration before you accept it as truth.  We need to elect a president who can lead us to thoughtful, humane, and evidence-based reform of our broken immigration system.  It will be a tragedy if we instead allow our future policies to be dictated by racism, demonization of immigrants, and electoral politics.