Departing from my usual academic approach, I am compelled to write about what I believe is going to happen with respect to President Trump and his stewardship of the country. Both gut instinct and critical thinking lead me to conclude that the challenges and stress Trump is facing are too much and will push him over the edge within the next several months. I fear this mental breakdown will lead to erratic, irrational, and dangerous actions that could push the country and our democracy to the brink. Should this breakdown occur, how we respond will make all the difference.  I need to share my opinion, acknowledging up front that I can’t prove this emergency will happen.

Let me begin by going to the 30,000 foot level and stating the obvious. Just ten months into his term, President Trump is fighting to turn his presidency around as he copes with daunting challenges that threaten his success. Things are going badly, and are likely to get worse. Let me describe just four of the challenges he is struggling with.

At least four challenges are pushing Trump to the limit and threatening the success of his presidency.

First, it is indisputable that President Trump’s job approval has steadily declined since entering office in January. He won based on a host of promises, many of which relate to bringing down inflation, lowering prices, and restoring the economy. His failure to deliver on most of these promises is a key reason why his job approval is eroding.  His denials regarding “fake polls” and his lies about success in beating inflation and lowering prices are further alienating many Americans. Our lived experience tells us the President is trying to con us.

Second, and unfortunately, our President is showing clear and disconcerting signs of cognitive decline. He utters word salads and incoherent rants on almost a daily basis. He is increasingly quick to anger and exhibit irrational behavior.  It’s unrealistic to believe he will suddenly regain his sharpness and rationality. Rather, again unfortunately, it’s likely he will continue to deteriorate. And it’s possible the decline will be precipitous.

Third, the US Supreme Court is adjudicating a key component of his presidency—his effort to impose broad-based tariffs. Given what legal experts are saying, and based on my own legal analysis, it’s probable that the Supreme Court will severely restrict his tariff authority. The decision could come by the end of the year. It stands to be a huge blow to his presidency and have a major detrimental impact on federal finances and the national debt.

And, fourth, we have the Epstein files. The President is fighting relentlessly to keep these files from going public. After many maneuverings and efforts to delay, a portion of the files were just released. The information is damaging to the President, and he is now redoubling his efforts to suppress the files. He has gone from labeling them a “Democrat hoax” to the extreme step of directing the Department of Justice (Pam Bondi) to investigate several Democrats who Trump says associated with Epstein.  Americans clearly see the President fighting fiercely to suppress the documents.  Three-fourths of us say all the files should be released. We are rightly concerned about what he is trying to hide. And, if and when the files do become public, Trump must worry about what the revelations will mean for his presidency.

The challenges are putting President Trump under incredible stress, increasing the odds he will “lose it,” throw the country into turmoil, and yet hold onto power.

Thus, as we speak, President Trump is coping with numerous existential challenges to his presidency. These challenges are intensifying, rather than subsiding. There can be little doubt that the President is experiencing stress that is off the charts. How he manages this stress at a time when he is losing control of his mental faculties raises numerous questions. Will he be able to hold up?  Will he totally lose it at some point in the near future?  And, if so, how will we know this is is case?  Finally, what are the prospects that he will make decisions and take actions that endanger our country and threaten the well-being of Americans?

Absent a heart attack, major stroke, or other sudden debilitating event, we won’t know definitively that Trump has lost it and is unfit for office.  I say this because presidents are able to keep their physical and mental diagnoses confidential.  No physician or psychiatrist can offer a diagnosis of the President unless that physician or psychiatrist has examined him.  Add this to what we know about Trump and it’s certain that Americans won’t know definitively whether Trump has lost it. Let me elaborate. 

We know that Trump never admits to losing. Rather, he is hard-wired to view and present himself as winning and in total control. He will never admit that he has lost the ability to perform his job.  Instead, he will threaten those close to him who consider speaking out. He will punish those who do. And he will brand the entire effort as evil “witch hunt” by those who can’t stand the outstanding successes of his presidency. It’s probable that he could even overcome or prevent a 25th Amendment effort to replace him unless the debilitating event is catastrophic.

Consequently, unless there is a sudden debilitating event, don’t expect that there will ever be an official decision that Trump is unfit for office. Expect instead that it will be bandied about and measured via public opinion polls. It’s all too predictable that most Republicans will view Trump as fit, while most Democrats will view him as unfit.

The problem is that I strongly believe the existential challenges and stress that Trump is facing will result in even greater levels of irrational thinking, irrational behavior, and harm to our country. Just because he escapes being declared unfit doesn’t mean he isn’t doing harm. I can’t see the President getting through the crises I describe without increased denial, punitive and dangerous actions, thwarting or ignoring laws, lying to the public, and eroding trust in government.

No one is stopping the President.  Republicans, who control Congress, have thus far gone along. They sing his praises, don’t challenge his usurpation of legislative powers, and sidestep criticism of his questionable actions.  Democrats lack the power to enact laws and exercise Congressional oversight over him. The public, now nearing two-thirds of whom disapprove of the President’s performance, are powerless to act until the November 2026 midterms.  Public opinion does not sway Trump because he simply denies it and invents his own. 

If the President does become unhinged in the coming months, is there anything we can do?

I strongly believe and fear the President will become more unhinged in the coming months. I feel certain that his cognitive decline is going to be an even bigger factor. The challenges and stress will be too much for him.  While some checks and balances can be restored if Democrats win control of one chamber of Congress in November 2026, this leaves a year where the President can lash out irrationally, ignore pubic opinion, punish those who challenge or question him, and possibly endanger the lives of Americans and the well-being of our democracy.

We are not totally powerless, however. We, Americans, need to step up. Speak out when you see the President taking actions that hurt the people and endanger the country. Speak out when you see cognitive decline and believe the President has become unfit for office. Tell your Congressional representatives that they must exercise oversight and not allow the President to usurp legislative powers. Tell them they won’t be getting your vote or campaign contributions unless they change.  The best way out—and maybe the only way out—is to get enough Republicans to take a stand against his outrageous or dangers actions.

I pray that the emergency I fear does not come to pass.  I hope that our President does not take rash actions that harm Americans or threaten our democracy. I hope his cognitive decline stabilizes. I sound the alarm because so much is at stake and the threat is so real. We can get through this if we understand what’s happening and are prepared to respond.  And, no matter what, buckle your seat belts!