According to conventional wisdom, President Trump’s Republican base has always been rock solid. To drive this point home, Trump once famously said, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”

While my hunch is to agree with the conventional wisdom, I decided to put it to the test. How have Trump’s job approval ratings from Republicans changed over time?  What were the numbers when he came into office in January 2025?  And what are his Republican approval percentages now, in early June 2026?  Also, how have the numbers changed in terms of the intensity of approval or disapproval (e.g., percentages for “strongly approve” versus “somewhat approve”)?  Finally, how do all these numbers compare with his record low approval percentages in mid-January 2021, after the January 6^th insurrection?

My research yielded six major findings:

1. In January 2025, President Trump enjoyed near-universal job approval (94%) from Republicans.

The Economist/YouGov survey of January 26-28, 2025 reveals 94% of Republicans approved of Trump’s job performance shortly after he took office. Nearly three-fourths (71%) of Republicans indicated “strongly approve” and 32% said “somewhat approve.”  Only 3% of Republicans indicated “strongly disapprove (1%) or “somewhat disapprove” (2%).  

2. By early June of 2026, Trump’s job approval from Republicans had significantly eroded to 83%, and job disapproval percentages had significantly increased.

The Economist/YouGov survey of May 29-June 1, 2026 reveals 83% of Republicans approved of Trump’s job performance. This is an 11-point drop since January 2025.  Further, only 53% indicated “strongly approve” (an 18-point drop), while 30% indicated “somewhat approve”.  Unlike the tiny disapproval numbers of January 2025, 16% of Republicans disapproved, with 5% saying “strongly disapprove” and 10% saying “somewhat disapprove.”  

3. In January of 2021, after the insurrection at the Capitol, Trump’s job approval from Republicans fell to an all-time low (81%) for both of his presidencies.

The Economist/YouGov survey of January 10-12, 2021 reveals 81% of Republicans approved of Trump’s job performance.  Some 47% said “strongly approve” and 34% said “somewhat approve.”  Moreover, 13% of Republicans were in the disapproval column, with 5% indicating “strongly disapprove” and 8% saying “somewhat disapprove.”  The 81% approval number is the lowest for Trump’s two presidencies to date.

4. Trump’s current job approval percentages from Republicans are substantially lower than when he entered office in 2025, and are very close to his all-time lows of January 2021.

In the space of a year and a half, Republicans approving of Trump’s performance dropped from 94% to 83%. Those disapproving of his performance increased from 3% to 16%.  Moreover, many Republicans who stayed in the “approval” column moved from “strongly approve” to “somewhat approve.”  Thus, Republicans are less enthusiastic about their President’s job performance. As a further example, 37% of Republicans currently disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and prices.

Trump’s current job approval/disapproval numbers are essentially as low as his nadir numbers in January 2021.  83% of Republicans currently approve of the President’s performance, versus 81% who approved in 2021.  16% currently disapprove, versus 13% who disapproved in 2021. These numbers are within the margin of error for these Economist/YouGov polls.

5. While Trump’s job approval from his Republican base has eroded to near its all-time low, it is unlikely that there will be significant further erosion.

Researchers have studied the very strong loyalty to Donald Trump and find it’s related to the psychological makeup of his followers. To quote from a recent article in the Humanist:

“A growing body of research suggests that the answer lies in the deep psychological and cultural mindset shared by many in this group—one that values faith-based reasoning over evidence-based thinking, and loyalty over empirical scrutiny.

At the heart of this mindset is a powerful form of faith-driven epistemology—the belief that truth comes not from data, evidence, or testing, but from authorities who speak to one’s values, whether that’s religious leaders or charismatic political figures. For many of Trump’s supporters, particularly among white evangelicals, this way of seeing the world has long shaped their views of science, history, and politics. As a result, they’re more inclined to trust what feels true—what aligns with their identity or beliefs—rather than what is demonstrated through facts or reason.”

The Humanist, Why Donald Trump’s Most Loyal Supporters Remain Fiercely Devoted to Him, August 25, 2025

In essence, Trump supporters aren’t likely to be influenced by facts, data, and rational discussion. Instead, they are loyal to Trump because they share his anti-establishment populism. They have a deep-seated belief that he champions their grievances against traditional institutions.

Another reason why Republicans aren’t likely to abandon Trump is cognitive dissonance. It’s difficult for a person to openly oppose something that they previously supported. The mental discomfort we experience when we struggle to reconcile two or more contradictory beliefs or values is called “cognitive dissonance.” Going public with a change in one’s position also risks the loss of shared relationships and accusations of disloyalty.

6. While Trump’s base isn’t likely to erode much further, his grip on Republican officials and the party is slipping, and this threatens his presidency.

While most Republican voters continue to proudly support their President, this alone is not enough for Trump to be successful. In just eighteen months, he has become very unpopular with the American people. He has lost the winning coalition that put him in the White House. Gone are many of the Independents, Blacks, Latinos, and younger generation who voted for him. More troublesome, several of his policies and actions have alienated Republican officials who now stand up against him. Yes, he continues to punish and seek retribution against these Republicans. But in recent weeks Republicans have shut him down on his Anti-Weaponization Fund, his White House ballroom, his war powers regarding Iran, and even some of his appointments.

Unfortunately for Trump and his loyal base, this resistance from Republican elected officials is likely to increase. Many members are fighting for political survival in the upcoming November midterm elections. Faced with supporting the President on a matter that both they and their constituents strongly oppose, many congressional Republicans are choosing to break with Trump and risk being punished. Further, members of Congress are starting to stand up for one another, holding that Trump has gone too far in punishing good and respected Republicans simply because they didn’t support him 100% of the time.

In the final analysis, the vast majority of Republicans who continue to support Trump probably don’t even acknowledge the erosion in support from the base. They see Democrats and the liberal “fake news” media downplaying and denying Trump’s achievements and bold leadership. I believe it’s safe to predict they will go down with the ship. Meanwhile, two-thirds of Americans are still scratching their heads about why so many Republicans aren’t facing the facts about Trump’s failed leadership.