As you probably know, President Trump recently fired Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics claiming she “rigged” recent monthly job reports to make Republicans and him look bad. His Truth Social post said she, “faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory.” 

Without providing evidence of specific wrongdoing regarding the recent job reports, he suggested the statistics had been “manipulated for political purposes.”   The dismal July numbers and the accompanying major downward adjustments to the May and June reports were his proof that the BLS Commissioner was rigging the numbers to make him look bad.

The President continues to insist the numbers were “rigged” without providing specific evidence as to how the Commissioner directed or controlled this outcome. While he doubles down on his claim, this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be gathering and assessing the evidence for ourselves.

In this article I will do just that: examine all the evidence. I start by assessing how realistic or possible it is for the BLS Commissioner to rig job reports. I then turn to assessing how and why the job numbers changed so much in the May through July time period. In particular, I examine the extent to which Trump’s policy agenda and actions caused the declining job numbers. I also examine Trump’s track record regarding prior job reports and his tendency to blame others when results are disappointing under his leadership. For ease of understanding, I organize the presentation under six key findings.

First, it’s virtually impossible for the Commissioner of Labor Statistics to dictate, control or alter the statistics in the monthly job reports.

William Beach, the former BLS Chief appointed by President Trump in 2017, slammed the firing, saying, “The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer . . . sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau.”

Beach should be an especially credible witness for our inquiry because he was appointed by Trump and is not likely to be politically biased against him. Also, Beach served in the same capacity as the person terminated. He thus fully understands the BLS processes as well as what the Commissioner can and can’t do to change job numbers.

Politico quotes Beach in explaining why the charge against McEntarfer is groundless:

“These numbers are constructed by hundreds of people. They’re finalized by about 40 people. These 40 people are very professional people who have served under Republicans and Democrats.

And the commissioner does not see these numbers until the Wednesday prior to the release on Friday. By that time, the numbers are completely set into the IT system. They have been programmed. They are simply reported to the commissioner, so the commissioner can on Thursday brief the president’s economic team.

The commissioner doesn’t have any hand or any influence or any way of even knowing the data until they’re completely done. That’s true of the unemployment rate. That’s true of the jobs numbers.

As a consequence, there’s very little chance that there could be any influence from the commissioner. I believe it’s a groundless claim.”

William Beach, former head of BLS appointed by President Donald Trump in 2017

For a more complete discussion of why Trump’s firing of the BLS official is groundless, click here to see Kasie Hunt’s inteview with Mr. Beach on CNN’s State of the Union. 

Second, it’s perfectly normal and routine for BLS to revise job numbers after their initial release because such revisions are built into the agency’s processes and make the data more accurate.

BLS procedures provide for monthly job reports to be revised both up and down. The agency systematically revises its monthly jobs reports, twice after the initial release. These revisions are accounted for in the subsequent two monthly reports. Specifically, the first revision occurs in the month following the initial release, and the final sample-based revision is published two months after the initial release.  It revises the data twice because many employers don’t always respond to the first survey. This is to be expected given that BLS surveys about 631,000 job sites and 121,000 businesses and government agencies in putting together its monthly reports.

The BLS also conducts an “annual benchmark revision,” which is discussed in greater detail below.

The reason the BLS makes these revisions is to make the data more accurate. The revisions take into account information and data that was not yet available when the “initial” release was published.  The BLS website explains the process and why revisions make the data more accurate.  

USA Today took a look at the reasons why the July job numbers were so bad, including why the numbers reported in the May and June initial releases were revised downward so dramatically. It turned out that there were poor response rates by businesses (around 40%) when responding to the initial surveys in May, June, and July. Most businesses eventually responded in time to be included in the first and second revisions put out by BLS. Thus, the downward adjustments to the May and June job numbers reflect a more accurate picture of the job numbers for those months.

Third, Trump has a history of bashing jobs reports, and his charge that McEntarfer and the BLS faked the jobs numbers in connection with the 2024 election has been debunked. 

ABC News recounts several instances going back to 2016 where Trump has criticized jobs reports as “phony” or “manipulated for political purposes.”  In August of 2024, he claimed without evidence that the Biden Administration was “caught fraudulently manipulating” job statistics when BLS disclosed that the economy created fewer than 818,000 jobs between April of 2023 and March of 2024 than initially reported.  At an August 21 campaign rally in North Carolina, Trump accused the BLS of reporting overinflated numbers to help Biden’s campaign and then attempting to hide the actual numbers until after the election. He said, “There’s never been any revision like this. They wanted it to come out after the election, but somehow it got leaked.”

In fact, the BLS revisions that Trump attacked were part of the “annual benchmark revision” that is done every year. Big shifts in numbers are not unusual in these benchmark revisions. For instance, similar downward revisions also took place during Trump’s first term, under then-BLS commissioner William W. Beach. BLS determined 518,000 fewer jobs were created in March 2019 than it had initially reported.

In making the annual benchmark revisions for 2024, BLS was able to account for the job impacts of such major events as Hurricane Helene and labor strikes. The full impact was not discernable at the time of the initial job report releases.  The revisions were not made to hide the ball or pursue political ends; rather, the revisions made the data more accurate and complete. Trump’s claim has been debunked by FactCheck.org. He is the one who is playing politics by blaming bad job numbers on those out to get him.

Finally, it should be pointed out that Trump never questions the integrity or accuracy of jobs reports when they are favorable to him or unfavorable to his opponent.  Here is an ABC News article that elaborates on this point.

Fourth, Trump’s effort to downsize the federal government and reduce federal spending is significantly reducing the number of federal employees; and it is also affecting the hiring of state and local government employees. 

Government Executive reports that at least 148,000 federal employees have left government since Trump came into office in January.  The nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service did the work on this report.

The NY Times recently published an article entitled, “More Than 150,000 Federal Workers Accepted Trump’s Resignation Incentives”.  Importantly, in accordance with BLS methodology, federal workers who have accepted buy-outs, but are not working and still being paid, are counted as in the workforce. Thus, these job losses are yet to be counted by BLS. 

Historical BLS statistics indicate a drop of 84,000 federal employees between the period of January 2025 to July 2025 (Series Id: CES9091000001, All employees, thousands, federal, seasonally adjusted).  This means than another 70,000 or so job reductions will be reported by BLS over the next few months.

Many federal funding streams enable state and local governments to hire employees to carry out various functions. In the coming months, cuts in federal funding to state and local governments are likely to bring a reduction in these employees. 

Fifth, Trump’s effort to conduct a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants is beginning to negatively affect job numbers; and the trend will accelerate if mass deportations are carried out.

Cal Matters recently published an article entitled, “Thousands of Californians lost work after LA immigration raids — including citizens.”  University of California at Merced researchers looked at US Census data and found California experienced a 3.1% drop in private-sector employment the week immediately after Trump stepped immigration raids in the state. The Census Bureau surveys Americans every month about whether they worked the week before. The researchers compared survey results from the week of May 11 to the week of June 8.  They found that in California, more citizens than non-citizens reported that they did not work the week after that first raid. The 3.1% decline equates to a loss in of 271,541 jobs from citizens and 193,428 non-citizens.

States like California, Texas, and Florida, which have large populations of undocumented immigrants, and whose workforces have high percentages of undocumented immigrants (over 7%) are especially losing jobs in the early going.

Other reporting by The Guardian (US workers say Trump’s immigration crackdown is causing labor shortages: ‘A strain on everybody’) accounts several instances where businesses have suffered labor shortages due to undocumented employees being arrested or no longer showing up for work.

Forbes recently published an article on how, “Trump’s Immigration Raids Worsen Construction’s $10.8 Billion Labor Shortage”

More generally, if Trump follows through on mass deportations, the Economic Policy Institute published an article entitled, “New analysis finds that Trump’s deportation agenda will eliminate nearly 6 million jobs.”

Sixth, and perhaps most important, Trump’s tariff policies, including the chaotic rollout, has negatively affected job creation and contributed to the major revisions to monthly job reports. 

It is widely known that many American businesses stockpiled foreign-made goods and raw materials in order to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs. This strategy allowed these businesses to keep inventories and maintain prices, even after widespread and steep tariffs were imposed on “Liberation Day” (April 2).  Also, some businesses actually hired more employees early in the year to help build up and market these inventories.  Further, while the steep tariffs announced on Liberation Day presented a major challenge for businesses, Trump suspended these tariffs within a week.  He instead called for negotiations with individual countries to be completed within 90 days (“90 deals in 90 days”). 

While businesses were granted a reprieve in terms of dealing with most of the steep tariffs, some were left in place, and some were added in the ensuing weeks and months. Wikipedia describes how costs for businesses increased:

“From January to April 2025, the average applied US tariff rate rose from 2.5% to an estimated 27%—the highest level in over a century. After changes and negotiations, the rate was estimated as 18.4% as of July 2025.”

Wikipedia, Tariffs in the second Trump administration

Most businesses were thus left with increased costs and uncertainty about the eventual outcome. They could continue to do business with their pre-existing stockpiles and import more goods at existing tariff rates for 90 days; but come early July they didn’t know what was going to happen. 

Businesses had and continue to have two basic options with respect to tariffs: absorb the costs or pass the costs (all or some) on to consumers.  President Trump actively called upon retailers to “eat the costs.”  And many businesses fell into line, pledging to hold the line as long as possible. 

It’s easy to understand the impact this pressure from the President had (and continues to have) when it comes to hiring. Businesses’ profits are being squeezed due to eating the costs of tariffs. Even greater uncertainty looms in the coming months, as businesses still do not know whether they will be facing tariffs of 15%, 25%, 40% or more. It is both understandable and prudent for a business to hold off on hiring new employees, not replace departing employees, or even reduce its workforce in order to avoid going into the red. And this is exactly what businesses have done, according to a Vistage survey of small an medium businesses.

Media accounts during the April through July period confirm that Trump’s tariffs and the unpredictable rollout affected and continues to affect hiring.  Here are some links to a few articles:

USA Today:  “April jobs report preview: As Trump tariffs start, see sectors that are and aren’t hiring”

Fast Company reported:

“In March, a survey of chief financial officers found that one in four companies were cutting back on hiring and making changes to their capital spending plans for 2025, in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs. Nearly a third of the 400 companies who were surveyed had cited trade policy and tariffs—as well as the uncertainty around them—as a source of anxiety. The tariffs were also the number-one business concern among chief financial officers in the first quarter of 2025.”

Fast Company, “Trump’s tariffs will have near immediate effects on hiring and jobs” April 4, 2025

NewsNation summed it up succinctly when it concluded, “President Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have likely played a role.”  The article goes on to quote Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor:

“Even though President Trump has backed down from the most extreme tariff plans announced on Liberation Day, economic headwinds from tariffs and policy uncertainty seem to be pushing businesses to be more cautious about hiring.”

Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor

Finally, we can anticipate more headwinds for hiring and the economy in as all the pieces of Trump’s tariff policy are put into place.  If you’re interested, see this August 1 ABC News article: “What do Trump’s new tariffs mean for the economy? Experts weigh in”

Conclusion: The evidence is overwhelming that the Commissioner of Labor Statistics and the BLS did not “rig” the July, June, and May Job Reports to make Trump and Republicans look bad; instead, Trump’s policies and actions are the primary driver of low job numbers, and the negative trends are likely to escalate in the coming months.

While President Trump will replace the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, as long as the BLS continues to follow its nonpartisan procedures for the preparation and release of monthly job reports, don’t expect the job news to get any better for the President. The Commissioner does not control the statistics and content of jobs reports. Rather, the content is produced through the work of hundreds of professionals working without political bias to compile and revise what is being reported to the agency in surveys.

The evidence is overwhelming that Trump’s own policies and actions—from downsizing federal government and employees, mass deportations involving hundreds of thousands or millions of undocumented workers, and the chaotic rollout of Trump’s tariff policies—are largely responsible for the poor job numbers that we are now seeing for May, June, and July of 2025.

It is virtually certain that more job losses will come as federal employees are further reduced, mass deportations are kicked into high gear, and the full set of proposed tariffs are actually implemented. 

Finally, if Trump—through the new Commissioner—tries to control the statistics and content of monthly jobs reports, this will create a crisis felt worldwide. Businesses, investors, economists, lawmakers, and foreign countries rely on the BLS for independent and accurate reporting. Trump will be challenged mightily if he attempts control job reports or make them political.  And I’m betting that the vast majority of Americans—all but the MAGA faithful—will make he and his party pay at the polls.