President Trump delivers his State of the Union address to Congress and the American people on Tuesday, February 24th. If the President is true to form, we can expect to hear of numerous spectacular achievements. His remarks will be peppered with a blizzard of facts and figures to bolster his assertions. Those of us watching will be left to wonder about all these claims and statistics. How can we possibly know what is true and accurate versus what is false and misleading?
To prepare myself and assist you in listening to the President’s address, I decided to do some digging regarding what he is likely to say. I found a recent and very helpful White House document entitled, “365 Wins in 365 Days.” It covers all of Trump’s achievements in his first year, including specific facts and figures. Working with this document, I identified the ten most important and prominent claims the President is likely to include in his speech.
In this article I set forth each claim by quoting or paraphrasing from the document, (indicating each specific win number for your convenience). I then go to official federal government data and information sources to put the claim in context and assess its accuracy and validity. I purposefully steer away from partisan commentary and opinion. Instead, I simply try to assess the President’s claims in the context of official data and analysis on the topic.
I continue my analysis with two additional assessments as to each of the claims. First, I address what the President is leaving out or not talking about in making the claim. And second, I address what Americans—via public opinion polling—have to say regarding the President’s performance relevant to the claim.
I encourage you to read this analysis before watching the speech on Tuesday evening. Also, keep it handy as you’re listening, or if you choose to read the text of his remarks later.
1. As to illegal immigration, the Trump Administration reduced illegal border crossings to their lowest level since the 1970s (#6); removed more than 2.6 million illegal aliens from the United States through deportations and voluntary self-departures (#2); carried out over 650,000 arrests, detentions, and deportations of illegal aliens — including the worst of the worst criminal illegal alien killers, rapists, gang members, and repeat offenders (#3); and deported more than 400,000 illegal aliens charged with or convicted of crimes (#4).
I went to the US Customs and Border Protection agency to find statistics on immigration enforcement. I validated that illegal border crossings are indeed way down compared with illegal entries during the Biden Administration. The President can take credit for this achievement.
I went to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) to find data on deportations and voluntary self-departures. Sadly, there is no current data on these topics. Instead, the latest update on statistics only goes to December 31, 2024. The Department of Homeland Security did issue a press release that states an estimated 2.2 million have self-deported, and there have been more than 675,000 deportations. Official statistics from the Department (Yearbook of Immigration Statistics) on FY 2025 have not yet been released. Consequently, we cannot formally validate the claims.
The Homeland Security press release cited above claims that “seventy percent of those arrested by ICE are convicted criminals or have criminal charges.” The Department, however, continues to resist providing information regarding the crimes. It is known that people with traffic violations or minor offenses are being arrested and deported.
What the President isn’t talking about
TRAC Immigration, an organization that monitors immigration enforcement, reports that Immigration and Customs Enforcement held 68,289 in ICE detention according as of February 7, 2026. 50,259 out of 68,289—or 73.6% held in ICE detention have no criminal conviction. Many of those convicted committed only minor offenses, including traffic violations. A recent report by the Cato Institute says that only 5% of those being detained are convicted of violent crimes.
Here is a graphic from a recent article in the Guardian:
Public opinion on the President’s handling of immigration
A February 13-16 The Economist/YouGov survey found that 53% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration, while only 42% approve. A recent joint survey from The Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos found that 58% of respondents believe the Trump administration has gone too far in its actions to deport illegal immigrants.
Summary: The Trump Administration can rightly take credit for securing the border; but its actions to arrest and deport illegal immigrants have gone too far and aren’t focused on the “worst of the worst.”
2. The economy achieved massive growth, with real GDP rising 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025 — smashing economists’ expectations and setting the stage for future growth, with GDP projected to be even higher in the fourth quarter as President Trump’s policies continue to take effect (#71).
The Bureau of Economic Analysis tracks the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) has a chart wizard that displays the data in a helpful format.
As you can see, GDP did in fact grow to 4.3% in the 3rd quarter of 2025. But it shrank to 1.4% in the 4th quarter, contrary to what the Administration predicted. More important, if you look at Trump’s GDP numbers since January 2025, the first quarter was negative. The 2nd and 3rd quarters were strong, but it’s also clear that Biden’s GDP numbers in 2021 were much stronger. Consequently, when we look at GDP numbers over the past five years, Trump’s numbers are hardly the “massive economic growth” that is being claimed.
What the President isn’t talking about
The President cherry picked one good quarter of GDP growth (3rd quarter, 2025) and used it as a basis for saying growth is going to be even greater in the future. He fails to acknowledge the negative and anemic numbers for two of the four quarters since he has been in office.
Public opinion on the President’s handling of the economy
A February 6-9 The Economist/YouGov survey found that 57% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, while only 34% approve.
Summary: Given the GDP numbers for his first year, it’s unfounded for the President to single out one strong quarter of GDP growth and claim that results will be even better in the future.
3. The Trump Administration tamed inflation, running at just 2.4% since the President took office — down 70% from its Biden-era peak (#74).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks inflation (Consumer Price Index or CPI), and FRED again has a useful chart wizard. Below I display CPI numbers going back to January 2024. As you can see, it’s probably accurate for Trump to say inflation has been averaging around 2.4% since he has been in office (January 2025). If we go back and look at inflation in June of 2022, we’ll see that it peaked at 9.1% when Biden was President. Thus, it’s probably technically correct for Trump to say inflation is down 70% from the Biden-era peak.
What the President isn’t talking about
If you look at the graph above, it’s also clear that monthly inflation numbers during 2024 (Biden’s last year) also averaged around 2.4%. Trump also does not mention or acknowledge that in the summer of 2022, inflation was running very high in most countries in the world. The high numbers were driven by supply chain issues associated with the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By the time Biden turned over the keys to the Trump Administration, inflation was running far below the peak level in the summer of 2022. The graph shows clearly that Trump has not tamed or beaten inflation; rather, inflation continues at levels close to those in 2024.
Public opinion on the President’s handling of inflation
A February 6-9 The Economist/YouGov survey found that 59% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, while only 31% approve.
Summary: It’s unfounded for Trump to claim that he has tamed inflation, or that he has reduced it below levels that existed for most of 2024.
4. The Trump Administration drove gas prices to their lowest level in nearly five years, with prices below $3 per gallon in 43 states and below $2 per gallon in 19 states (#68).
My research validates that it is technically correct to state that gas prices are at their lowest level in nearly five years; but, as I will explain shortly, gas prices haven’t really come down that much.
It is difficult to validate the claim that gas is below $3 per gallon in 43 states, and below $2 per gallon in 19 states. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has weekly reports that show gas prices in various areas of the country, and for various cities; but there is no price data by state. Instead, the EIA’s preferred metric for gas prices is the national average for various blends (regular, diesel, premium). Currently, the national average for regular is $2.92 per gallon. Using the national average for gas is a better measure because it tells us the average price that all Americans are paying.
The American Automobile Association (AAA) tracks fuel prices by state. Here is the latest graphic from AAA:
As you can see, many states have prices below $3 per gallon, but there are no states with gas under $2 per gallon.
What the President isn’t talking about
While gas may be below $3 per gallon, the President isn’t talking about the average price of gas during the last few months of the Biden Administration. These are the average prices that President Trump inherited when he took office. Gas Buddy has a price chart that gives us this information:
As you can see, gas went down to about $2.98 per gallon in November 2024; and on Biden’s last day in office the price was about $3.10 per gallon. After Trump took office (red line), you can see that gas hovered in $3.10 to $3.20 range until November. Prices dropped to around $2.73 in late November; and currently they are at about $2.90 per gallon. Thus, while gas was about $3.10 per gallon when Trump took office, current prices are only down by about 20 cents per gallon.
The President also isn’t talking about the fact that gas prices are very much affected by the worldwide price of Brent Crude oil. The graph below from FRED demonstrates this point. Since entering office, Trump has the good fortune of very low prices for Brent Crude.
Summary: It’s misleading to state that gas prices have been driven way down since the end of Biden’s term and since Trump took office. Instead, current gas prices are down modestly since Trump took office.
5. The Trump Administration created 654,000 private-sector jobs in 2025 (#69).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the agency that tracks jobs and job growth in the US. Until recently, BLS had reported that 584,000 were added during 2025. However, in the BLS January 2026 Jobs Report the number was revised from 584,000 to 181,000. Consequently, the 654,000 figure is erroneous.
During 2025, the President crowed each month there was a positive Jobs Report from BLS. And he claimed rigged or flawed data-gathering each month there was a poor jobs report. He also attributed some of the low job numbers to all the federal employees that were being fired, and to illegal immigrant workers who were being arrested and deported.
What the President isn’t talking about
While BLS is the agency that track jobs, FRED has a useful chart wizard. Let me graphically display monthly job numbers going back to January 2024:
As you can see, since Trump has been in office (red line) there have been four months with job losses. The two months with the greatest gains (April 2025 and January 2026) are modest compared with the job gains in January, February, March and December of 2024. For 2024, BLS reports some 2.2 million jobs were added, for an average of 186,000 new jobs per month.
Summary: Job growth under President Trump (181,000 new jobs in 2025) is vastly lower than the job growth under President Biden in 2024 (2.2 million new jobs in 2024, averaging 186,000 per month).
6. The Trump Administration delivered a historic stock market rebound, with the major stock indices all hitting repeated new record highs (#78).
It is true that many of the major stock indexes (e.g., Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500) hit repeated record highs during 2025. But this statement doesn’t mean much because it is also true that most of the major stock indexes hit repeated record highs during the Biden Administration. That is, the stock market tends to go up over time; thus, it is common or expected that it will continue to reach new highs over time.
In addition, the President uses the word “rebound,” implying that the stock market was doing poorly, and that it surged greatly since he entered office. As we’ll see shortly, this is not the case.
What the President isn’t talking about
A better measure of stock market performance is to assess gains over a period of time. That is, how much did a given index go up compared to where it was a year (12 months) earlier? I used the FRED chart wizard to look at how two indexes (Dow and S&P 500) changed since 2023:
As you can see, since the beginning of 2024, the Dow and S&P 500 have been increasing at higher rates than the rates of return in 2025. This means the markets performed better under Biden than under Trump.
Summary: It’s erroneous to state that the stock market “rebounded” under President Trump. The metric of an “all time high” is a red herring. In fact, the stock market performed better in 2024 (Biden), than 2025 (Trump).
7. The Trump Administration cut the U.S. trade deficit to its lowest level since 2009 through tariff enforcement and reciprocal trade pressure (#89). Trump’s policies sent tariff revenues soaring, collecting $300 billion in 2025 (#107).
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the US Treasury, and FRED are among agencies that track the US trade deficit and tariff revenues. My research mostly validates the claims made above; but for reasons that will be explained shortly, the claims are misleading. The Federal Reserve Richmond, VA reports that $287 billion in tariff revenue was collected in 2025. Thus, the $300 billion figure cited by the Administration is slightly high.
What the President isn’t saying
The claim that the trade deficit is at the lowest since 2009 leads one to believe that a historic drop was achieved in 2025, with Trump in office. When we look at the actual data, using the FRED chart wizard, we see this is not the case.
The graph shows the trade deficit (the cost of the goods and services we import versus the cost of goods and services we export) going back to 2008-09. As you can see, in 2008-09 (recession) the trade deficit was at about $30,000 million. Now, move over to 2025 as Trump was coming into office. The trade deficit suddenly exploded to over $130,000 million shortly after he came into office. The deficit was quickly erased in the next several months, and in October 2025, the deficit was down to about $30,000 million (the lowest since 2009). But in the next few months, the deficit returned around $70,000, a fairly common level since 2020.
Thus, the President is cherry-picking one month (October 2025) and using it as basis for claiming the deficit is now down to a 15+ year low and that tariffs are going to continue to make it so. In fact, NBC News reports that for 2025, the gap narrowed to just over $901 billion, while the gap for 2024 was $904 billion. And the 2025 gap is still the third-highest on record.
Public opinion on foreign trade, the trade deficit, and tariffs
A February 20 EconomistYouGov survey found that 60% of Americans approve of the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s tariffs, while only 23% disapprove of the decision. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) say that Trump’s tariffs have increased the prices they are paying “a lot” or “slightly.” And Pew Research reports that 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s tariffs, while only 37% approve.
Summary: The Trump Administration has not actually and significantly reduced the trade deficit. The US Supreme Court’s decision overturning Trump’s tariffs is supported by 60% of Americans. And similar percentages of Americans oppose Trump’s tariffs and believe their costs have increased because of them.
8. The Trump Administration orchestrated the Working Families Tax Cut, delivering the largest middle-class tax relief package in modern U.S. history and saving 5.9 million jobs (#79).
Up until passage and signing on July 4, 2025, the tax cut and spending legislation put forth by Trump and Republicans was known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” With passage, the legislation is now rebranded as the “Working Families Tax Cut.”
My research failed to turn up any source outside of The Trump Administration that validates the claims that the legislation is the largest middle-class tax relief package in history, and that it saves 5.9 million jobs. Analyses by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the agency that tracks the fiscal effects of legislation, do not treat these claims.
What the President isn’t saying
In prior blog posts I wrote extensively about the impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill, including an analysis that reveals all but the wealthy will be worse off because of the legislation. The wealthiest Americans and corporations will receive the lion’s share of tax relief. Middle-class Americans will receive modest tax relief, but will likely be squeezed by cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAPS), and other programs.
The President and Republicans sold the legislation by claiming that it would reduce federal deficits and the National Debt. They applied unconventional accounting measures to cost out the legislation, ignoring traditional methods used by the Congressional Budget Office.
Now, in 2026, the chickens are coming home to roost. Earlier this month, the Congressional Budget Office released, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036. It’s a nightmare you need to read. Annual deficits are going to go from $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 to $3.1 trillion in 2036. The National Debt is going to go from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% of GDP in 2036. Every year the projected revenues are far short of the projected expenditures. And this analysis was done before the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs. Put simply, the Congressional Budget Office–neutral and nonpartisan–is saying that America is in trouble when it comes taxing and spending.
Public opinion on the One Big Beautiful Bill/Working Families Tax Cut
- 58% of Americans (Pew Research, March 19, 2025) say tax rates on household income over $400,000 should be raised; and 63% say taxes on large businesses and corporations should be raised. Trump and the Republicans refused to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations in adopting the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- 72% of Americans (Economist/YouGov, November 2025) favor raising taxes on billionaires, while only 15% oppose. Trump and Republicans oppose raising taxes on billionaires.
- 63% of Americans (American Compass, March 2024) say the federal budget deficit and national debt should be addressed by a combination of cuts and tax increases, with at least 25% of the deficit reduction coming from each. Trump and the Republicans have opposed all tax increases.
- 74% of Americans (Economist/YouGov, July 4-7) say that Medicaid should be given more funding (49%) or the same level of funding (25%), while only 15% say Medicaid should be given less funding. Trump and the Republicans cut Medicaid in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- 84% of Americans (same July 4-7 survey) say that Medicare should be given more funding (56%) or the same level of funding (28%), while only 15% say Medicare should be given less funding. Trump and Republicans cut Medicare funding in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- 70% of Americans (same July 4-7 survey) say SNAPS (Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program) should be given more funding (41%) or the same level of funding (29%), while only 16% say SNAPS should be given less funding. Trump and the Republicans cut SNAPS funding in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- 52% of Americans say the Trump Administration has “gone too far” in imposing tariffs on foreigh imports (Economist/YouGov August 22-25). Trump continues to expand and revise tariffs on an almost daily basis.
Summary: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act/Working Families Tax Cut is unpopular with the American people. Worse, the legislation will not reduce deficits and the National Debt. Instead, it will drive up annual deficits and the National Debt to unprecedented levels.
9. The Trump Administration delivered the largest one-year decline in homicides in U.S. history by launching targeted federal crime crackdowns and ending Biden-era non-enforcement (#53). It also reversed the nationwide violent crime surge, driving nationwide drops in rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults by 6%, 19%, and 10%, respectively (#54). And, finally, it cut drug overdose deaths by 21% over last year, with overdose deaths declining each month since President Trump took office (#55).
The FBI is the federal agency in charge of tracking crime rates in the United States. The latest annual report of complete crime statistics is for 2024. For 2024 (Biden) the report notes murder was down 14.9%, robbery was down 8.9%, rape was down 5.2%, and aggravated assault was down 3%.
As to more current data, the FBI does have a “Crime Data Explorer” that provides statistics for the period of November 2024 through October 2025. During this period it reports murder is down 18.4%, robbery is down 18%, rape is down 7.5%, and aggravated assault is down 8.2%.
From my research of FBI data, I couldn’t validated that 2025 was the largest one-year decline in homicides in US history. Also, the fact that crime went down in 2024 seemed to contradict the statement that there was non-enforcement during the Biden era.
I expanded my research and found this graphic from Urban Milwaukee. Clearly, the US murder rate declined precipitously in 2023, and 2024.
I also found this from Jeff-alytics
Clearly, violent crime rates and property crime rates have been trending down over the past 25 or 30 years.
Finally, I found this on drug overdose deaths from the Center for Disease Control (CDC).
During Trump’s first term (2017-2021) drug overdose deaths went up from about 65,000 per year to 95,000 per year. During Biden’s term, overdose deaths climbed to a peak of about 110,00 per year before declining to about 80,000 per year at the end of his term. So far in Trump’s second term, the numbers are continuing to decline to about 75,000 per year.
What the President isn’t saying
The President is withholding the fact that homicides, violent crimes, and drug overdose deaths were already significantly trending down before he started his second term. In addition, it’s absurd to think that President Trump and his Administration is the single factor that is causing crime rates and overdose deaths to decline. State and local law enforcement agencies have been working on these problems and devoting far more extensive resources than the federal government.
Summary: The Trump Administration has not provided evidence that homicides and violent crime rates were spiking before he came into office. In fact, crime rates have been declining over time, as have drug overdose deaths. Trump can validly take credit for keeping crime rates and drug overdose deaths moving in the right direction; but it’s erroneous to claim he alone reversed a nationwide crime surge.
10. The Trump Administration ended many wars and brokered peace in many areas of the world. This includes ending the Israel–Hamas war by imposing a ceasefire framework, securing the release of hostages, and enacting a landmark Gaza Peace Plan to unleash total security and prosperity for all in the region (#141). It also includes the following: brokering an end to the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran (#142), brokering peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan (#143), brokering peace between India and Pakistan (#144), brokering peace between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda (#145), brokering peace between Cambodia and Thailand (#146), brokering normalization between Kosovo and Serbia (#147), and brokering peace between Egypt and Ethiopia (#148).
My research reveals that the above claims made by the Trump Administration are technically accurate.
What the President isn’t saying
All of the peace agreements and actions listed above are in transition and fragile in nature. None of them can be classified as a “done deal.” The same goes with respect to the Administration’s extensive efforts to bring an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. The President should not be claiming or implying that all these peace efforts are completed and locked in.
Public opinion on the President’s handling of foreign policy
An Economist/YouGov poll of January 23-26, found many Americans believe Trump is focusing too much on foreign affairs and not enough on the economy.
Summary: The President rightfully can claim credit for initiating these various peace efforts and getting them started. However, it’s misleading to imply the actions are complete and won’t go off track.
Final thoughts
Many Americans–especially Democrats and Independents–are so concerned about Trump’s tendencies to lie and mislead that they won’t even watch the President’s speech. However, I urge all Americans to at least read and consider the text of his remarks. Whether you watch in real time or read the text later, I believe my analysis can help you understand and corroborate the President’s voluminous claims of success. The extra work is part of being a good citizen.
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