In a Truth Social post on March 8, President Trump told Americans high gas prices were temporary, as he wrote:

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”

President Donald J. Trump, Truth Social, March 8, 2026

The Trump Administration has been pounding this narrative ever since. The spike in gas prices is only temporary. Prices will drop rapidly once the Iran nuclear threat is over. And the pain Americans are feeling is a small price to pay.  In essence, we’re being told to suck it up because the pain we’re feeling is only temporary and will be worth the sacrifice. Only a short-sighted fool would be preoccupied with high gas prices.

Let’s put some facts up against this narrative, starting with gasoline and diesel prices as tracked by the Automobile Administration of America (AAA). 

Gasoline and diesel prices have quickly gone up by very significant rates, causing real pain for American consumers and businesses.

As to REGULAR GASOLINE, one month ago the US average price was $2.93 per gallon. Today (March 23), the average price for regular gas is $3.95. Essentially, we’re now paying $1.00 more per gallon, a 35% increase.

The average price of DIESEL one month ago (February 22) was $3.71 per gallon. Today (March 22), the average price is $5.28. This is an increase of $1.57 per gallon, and, more tellingly, a 42% increase.

The average fill up for Americans is 12-16 gallons for regular cars, and 16-21 gallons for SUV’s.  This means it’s costing you an extra $12 to $21 every time you fill up. And the cost is even more if you’re using a premium blend of gas.

And, as you know, diesel is what is used in the trucks that deliver food to our grocery stores, deliver packages to our doorsteps, and move goods to businesses all around the country.  An 18-wheeler typically holds 120 to 300 gallons of diesel, with an average fill-up of roughly 150 to 250 gallons, according to International Used Truck Centers.  For a fill up of 200 gallons, at an extra cost of $1.57 per gallon, it costs that truck an additional $314 to deliver goods.  And in America there are over 13 million commercial trucks making deliveries on a daily basis.

The point is that these increased costs are already substantial and worrisome, both for consumers and for businesses.  We don’t know whether gas and diesel prices have peaked or will keep going up. We don’t know how long this “short-term” pain is going to last. The very steep increase in gas and diesel prices is almost certain to affect the overall inflation rate. The market consensus for March 2026 is that year-to-year inflation will be in the 3.2%-3.4% range.  This is sharply up from the 2.4% rates in recent months.

We don’t know how long it will take and what the US must do to assure the destruction of the Iranian nuclear threat.

Trump argues that with the “destruction of the Iran nuclear threat” the US and world are going to enjoy a new level of safety and peace. But how long will it take, and what must we do to destroy the Iran nuclear threat?  Getting oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t destroy the nuclear threat.  Will we need boots on the ground to capture the enriched uranium?   We tried once to “obliterate” it by bombing, and Trump even said he totally succeeded. That, apparently, was not the case.  How long is it going to take to know that we have ended the nuclear threat?  Are the “short-term” gas price hikes really going to be “short-term” in nature?

It’s harder to believe the President’s claim of short-term pain for long-term gain given the Administration’s decreasing credibility over time.

We are being asked to trust a President and Administration that is less and less credible by the day. This is a president who told us less than a year ago he totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear capability. This did not prove to be true.  This is a president who said he would end Russia’s war with Ukraine in one day. They are still at war. This is a President and Administration who told us he would bring down prices “on day one” and that he totally defeated inflation. Fifteen months into his presidency, prices have only gone up; and inflation remains above the Fed’s preferred level of 2%.

An Economist/YouGov Poll of January 16-19, 2026, found 57% of Americans saying Trump is “not honest and trustworthy.” Only 32% say he is “honest and trustworthy.”  Even 15% of Republicans found Trump “not honest and trustworthy” and 13% of Republican said they were “not sure.”   It’s quite an indictment when less than a third of Americans view the President as honest and trustworthy.

A more recent Economist/YouGov poll of February 13-16, 2026, found 70% of Americans saying “Trump lies often” (50%) or “sometimes” (20%). Only 20% of Americans found that Trump “never” lies (7%) or “rarely lies” (13%); while 12% of Americans were “not sure.” 

Bottom line

The bottom line is that if Trump actually delivers the certain and permanent destruction of the Iranian nuclear capability in a few short weeks, and if gasoline and diesel prices drop rapidly to previous levels, then the short-term pain from high prices will be worth the long-term gain in peace and safety. Let him deliver these victories and we will then say it was worth the price. 

But given Trump’s diminished credibility and propensity to lie, Americans would be foolish to take him at his word beforehand.  In all likelihood the total and complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability cannot be delivered in a matter of weeks, or even a few short months.  And history says that gas prices will take longer to come down than the time it took for them to go up.  Finally, if he declares victory and walks away without destroying the nuclear threat, the long-term peace and security he promised will turn out to be a lie. Our pain, even if short-term, will have been for nothing.