Most of us can probably recite Trump’s taking points on illegal immigration. Biden allowed the country to be invaded by illegal aliens. Most of these invaders are bad people–criminals such as murderers, rapists, pedophiles, gangbangers, drug dealers, terrorists, and the like. They must be removed immediately via the largest mass deportation in American history. Enforcement will be at the maximum extent allowable under the law.  

To the extent that Trump’s talking points are actually true, Americans have been supportive of his stances on immigration. That is, vast majorities of Americans are okay with arresting and deporting violent criminals.  We’re okay with aggressive enforcement. But most of us believe the President cannot go beyond what is allowed by law and the Constitution. 

But recent public polling (see Quinnipiac, Marist and Gallup) reveals that Americans increasingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration.  More Americans are disapproving when it turns out that long-term and law-abiding migrants are arrested and deported.  Disapproval especially increases when the legal and Constitutional rights of migrants are violated. Support for mass deportations is dropping. Majorities of Americans now favor finding a way for law-abiding undocumented immigrants to stay in the country. 

In response to the shift in public opinion, the Trump Administration is doubling down on its immigration talking points. Trump and team insist they’re laser-focused on arresting and deporting the “worst of the worst.”  They maintain that most of those arrested and detained have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. They also insist they are following the law in terms of all enforcement activities. Finally, they insist that Democrats and the media are pushing two false narratives. One is that the legal rights of migrants are being violated. And the second is that Trump’s actual agenda is to maximize the number of arrests and deportations, regardless of criminality.  

To the extent the public can be convinced that Trump’s talking points are true and accurate, the trend toward increasing disapproval can likely be halted or even reversed. But if the reality is that most of those being arrested and deported are law-abiding migrants, instead of violent criminals, the backlash against the President’s actions will likely grow. And, if it turns out his Administration is violating the legal and Constitutional rights of migrants, the backlash will likely worsen.

In this article I examine how the President’s battle to win public opinion is playing out in recent weeks and days. In particular, I examine the extent to which Trump’s talking points are actually accurate and true. I also examine the extent to which the actions of the Trump Administration are consistent with its talking points. This analysis enables us to assess where the majority of Americans are likely to come down in terms of approval or disapproval. Will most of us embrace Trump’s full-throttle campaign to sell his talking points?  Or will most Americans conclude that Trump is going far beyond only arresting and deporting criminals, and ignoring the law and Constitution in the process?   And, finally, even if it turns out that more and more Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration, will this lead him to change his actions?

The Trump Administration has not produced statistics or data to prove that the substantial majority of migrants thus far arrested and detained have either been convicted of serious crimes or face pending charges for such crimes; instead, it is misrepresenting the facts about the criminality of those arrested.  

Let me illustrate how the Trump Administration is trying to convince the public that most of those arrested and detained are serious criminals. On Saturday, July 12, Secretary Noem held a press conference in Tampa, Florida to tout the great progress being made to arrest and deport the “worst of the worst” (she described them as, “the murderers, the rapists, the pedophiles, those who would perpetuate child pornography”).  She announced that since Trump has been in office, more than 286,000 “illegal aliens” have been arrested, with more than 70% of these facing criminal charges or convictions. 

When we unpack the phrase, “more than 70% of these facing criminal charges or convictions,” we discover the deceit and manipulation going on.  The Administration computes this 70% figure by counting every arrestee with any criminal conviction, which can include traffic offenses, and a host of non-serious criminal offenses.  The Administration does the same as to those “facing criminal charges.”  They don’t just count those facing “serious” criminal charges; instead, they also count all those facing any criminal charges.  Included in their numbers are migrants who are simply charged with immigration violations (e.g., attempting to enter the country illegally). 

Moreover, the Administration does not tell us what percentage of arrestees have criminal convictions and what percentage of arrestees simply face criminal charges. The fact is that the vast majority of those arrested don’t have any criminal convictions. 

Let me reinforce the importance of the above points by quoting from a recent article in the AP News:

“The latest ICE statistics show that as of June 29, there were 57,861 people detained by ICE, 41,495 — 71.7% — of whom had no criminal convictions. That includes 14,318 people with pending criminal charges and 27,177 who are subject to immigration enforcement, but have no known criminal convictions or pending criminal charges.

Each detainee is assigned a threat level by ICE on a scale of 1 to 3, with one being the highest. Those without a criminal record are classified as having “no ICE threat level.” As of June 23, the latest data available, 84% of people detained at 201 facilities nationwide were not given a threat level. Another 7% had been graded as a level 1 threat, 4% were level 2 and 5% were level 3.”

Associated Press, story by Melissa Goldin, Trump says he wants to deport ‘the worst of the worst.’ Government data tells another story

Clearly, the vast majority of those being arrested and detained are not serious criminals or dangerous individuals. If you want to see more evidence and documentation on this point, here are links to four good sources:  Cato Institute, ABC News, TRAC data, and Fortune. 

The Cato Institute article linked above provides extensive new data that compare arrest strategies currently being used with those applied during Trump’s first term in 2017.  It concludes the new data provide two key takeaways: (1) ICE is arresting huge numbers of migrants who have no criminal history, and (2) ICE is taking to the streets like never before to execute these arrests.

Finally, the Administration has not substantiated or provided documentation for the numbers it is citing. For instance, Secretary Noem stated that some 286,000 illegal aliens have been arrested since Trump entered office. I went to the websites for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Customs and Border Protection (CPB) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to validate Noem’s assertions.  I found a DHS press release touting 65,000 arrests made in the first 100 days.  But official arrest statistics were not reported in any of the established databases (DHS, ICE, CPB) beyond December 31, 2025.  The Administration hasn’t updated its official dashboards since Trump has been in office.

I then went to the TRAC Immigration website, run by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC). This is a project run out of Syracuse University that provides comprehensive, independent, and nonpartisan information about U.S. immigration enforcement.  TRAC reports 153,408 arrests of undocumented immigrants made by ICE and CBP during the period of January 2025 through June 2025. This is nowhere near the 286,000 number Noem stated at her July 12 press conference.

The Administration’s claim that it is only going after the “worst of the worst” is undermined by at least two recent actions: a directive from White House Deputy Chief of Staff to vastly increase ICE arrests, and a directive from the President to concentrate ICE arrests and removal operations in Democrat-run cities.   

Forbes, Fortune, and Axios report that on May 21, White House Deputy Chief of Staff and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem convened a meeting of 50 ICE field heads. The heads were harshly criticized for the low number of immigration arrests during the first few months of the Administration, which averaged about 650 per day. Miller demanded that they seek to arrest 3,000 people per day.  One field head coming out of the meeting was reported as saying, “Steven Miller wants everybody arrested.”  He also noted that Miller said, “Why aren’t you at Home Depot? Why aren’t you at 7-Eleven?”   

All three of the sources cited above concluded that the directive from Miller likely spiked immigration arrests since that time.  Notes Fortune:

“Total ICE arrests shot up at the end of May after White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller gave the agency a quota of 3,000 arrests a day, up from 650 a day in the first five months of Trump’s second term. ICE arrested nearly 30% more people in May than in April, according to the Transactional Records Clearinghouse, or TRAC. That number rose again in June, by another 28%.”

Fortune, July 12, 2025, Trump says he wants to deport ‘the worst of the worst,’ but ICE data shows 72% of people detained have no criminal convictions

Finally, the very idea of looking for arrests at Home Depot, 7-Eleven, and other places is antithetical to priority of arresting violent and dangerous criminals.  Forbes concluded:

“The arrests of people at nail salons, restaurants, construction sites and Home Depot illustrate that targeting dangerous criminals is not the Trump administration’s immigration policy.”

Forbes, June 9, 2025, Stephen Miller’s Order Likely Sparked Immigration Arrests And Protests

On June 15, Trump published a Truth Social post that directed ICE officials to concentrate arrest and deportation efforts on large cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. He said,  “These and other such Cities are the core of the Democrat Power Center, where they use Illegal Aliens to expand their Voter Base, cheat in Elections, and grow the Welfare State, robbing good paying Jobs and Benefits from Hardworking American Citizens.”

Clearly, the President wants to increase ICE arrests and removals not to go after violent criminals, but rather to go after Democrats and what he alleges they are doing to expand voter bases, cheat in elections, and take away jobs from citizens.

The Administration’s claim that ICE arrest and detention practices are in full compliance with the law and Constitution was recently rejected by a federal district court; but the ruling is being challenged and will probably end up in the US Supreme Court. 

On Friday, July 11, a federal court in Los Angeles temporarily blocked the Trump administration (ICE agents) from indiscriminately arresting people without reasonable suspicion that they’re in the country illegally.

In the court’s order, Judge Maame Ewusi-Mensah Frimpong condemned the use of roving patrols to round up individuals without reasonable suspicion that they’re in the country illegally. She found it illegal to “identify people based on race alone, aggressively question them, and then detain them without a warrant, without their consent, and without reasonable suspicion that they are without status.”

The judge found that ICE agents were using race, a person’s job or their location, and their language to form “reasonable suspicion” — the legal standard needed to detain an individual.  These practices were insufficient to meet that standard.  The court ordered Homeland Security to develop guidance for agents to determine “reasonable suspicion” beyond the apparent race or ethnicity of a person, the language they speak, their accent, their presence at a certain location (such as a bus stop), or the type of work they do.

The judge further concluded, “Roving patrols without reasonable suspicion violate the Fourth Amendment . . . and denying access to lawyers violates the Fifth Amendment . . . What the federal government would have this court believe—in the face of a mountain of evidence presented in this case—is that none of this is actually happening.”

The next day (Saturday, July 12) Homeland Security Secretary Krisi Noem held a press conference in Tampa, Florida to tout the great progress being made to arrest and deport the “worst of the worst.” When asked by a reporter about the federal court decision, Noem was dismissive of both the judge and the ruling. 

Here’s what she said:

“Yeah, he’s an idiot. I mean frankly he’s an idiot.  We have all the right in the world to go out on the streets and to uphold the law and to do what we’re going to do, so none of our operations are going to change. He made claims that were absolutely false. We’re going in and doing our operations and planning them against individuals that are dangerous, that are violent, that have criminal activity they’re involved in and that’s how we’re building our cases.  So, he’s making up garbage, filing decisions, and we’re going to appeal it and we’re going to win.”

Homeland Security Secretary, Kristi Noem, at a press conference in Tampa, Florida on July 12, 2025

Aside from misgendering the judge, Secretary Noem essentially doubled down on insisting that ICE practices were fully legal, that they were going after violent and criminal individuals that they knew about and had a case against, and that the judge was making up fake evidence to justify a bad decision.

On Monday, July 14, the Trump Administration asked the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals to stay the district court’s decision.  If granted, this would enable ICE agents to continue with current practices while the matter is litigated in the federal courts. Personally, I believe there are major logical fallacies in the Administration’s case. However, I am reluctant to predict the 9^th Circuit’s decision on this matter and believe it will end up in the Supreme Court. 

Regardless of judicial verdicts on the Administration’s practices for arrest, detention, and deportation, there are significant logical fallacies in the Administration’s approach; also, the approach is a threat to the civil liberties of Americans.

The Administration claims that it is going after criminals and violent individuals that it knows about and has a case against. Yet it is sweeping up individuals at Home Depots, 7-Elevens, Restaurants, Bus stops, car washes, farms, and other public places. These are not places where violent individuals and criminals tend to hang out. Also, it would seem that ICE would know the names and locations (residences) of individuals with criminal convictions or charges. Why are they being swept up at public places and asked for identification if ICE already knows about them?  And, finally, why do so many of those being swept up not have any criminal convictions or criminal charges against them?  The fact that so many non-criminals are being arrested suggests that ICE doesn’t actually know about the criminal status of those they are sweeping up.  The Administration argues that a person fleeing roving patrols and identity checks is evidence that the person is in the country illegally or has something to hide. Attempted flight justifies apprehending these individuals, detaining them, asking questions, and verifying their identity and legal status. But often ICE agents are in plain clothes (instead of ICE uniforms) and wearing masks to conceal their identity. Thus, individuals do not know for certain whether they are being confronted by legitimate ICE agents or bogus imposters.  In fact, ICE impersonators are on the rise.

In a recent EconomistYouGov poll, 78% of respondents said agents should be required to wear ICE uniforms, while only 18% said this should not be a requirement.  Also, 52% said agents shouldn’t be allowed to wear masks to hide their identity, while only 36% said agents should be able to wear masks.

Finally, the civil liberties of every American could be at stake if the Supreme Court ultimately decides that “reasonable suspicion” to detain and arrest an individual can be based solely on such factors as race, accent, or presence at a certain location.  Disagree?  Well, consider positioning law enforcement officers at the entrance of gun stores across the country.  Given that young, White males tend to commit mass shootings and gun violence, why shouldn’t the police be able to stop, detain, and interrogate all such individuals before they go inside?  And why shouldn’t the police be able to inspect what they purchase?  And why shouldn’t the police be able to interrogate a young, White male extensively if they happen to purchase an assault rifle, high-capacity magazines, or a large quantity of ammunition?  We don’t want this to happen, of course. But how is it different from what ICE agents currently appear to be doing with respect to Brown people?

Conclusion: The evidence is overwhelming that the Trump Administration is not predominantly arresting and detaining individuals convicted of, or charged with, serious criminal offenses; rather, actual practices of the Administration have predominantly resulted in the arrest of non-criminals, too often with little regard for their legal rights.

In this analysis we have seen the Trump Administration is betraying the very talking points it is using to win public opinion on its immigration policies. While insisting they are focusing on arresting and deporting the “worst of the worst,” the actual numbers paint an entirely different picture. Worse, the actual practices of the Administration betray its “serious criminal” talking point by instead prioritizing maximum arrests and taking on Democrat-run cities. Finally, to achieve this maximum number of arrests, the Administration has taken to the streets to round up and arrest individuals based on their race, appearance, language, or presence at particular location. All the while the Administration continues to deny that any of this is happening as it keeps shouting its talking points from the rooftops.

The American people, however, are becoming increasingly aware that Trump’s talking points on immigration are false and misleading. They see that he is not just concentrating on deporting serious criminals. They see that most of those arrested don’t have criminal records and aren’t dangerous.  They see that many of those arrested have families, jobs, and long-term connections to their communities.  They worry about the effect on the economy and have concerns about how immigrants are being treated. 

While I respect that some of you might reach a different conclusion, I believe Trump has zero chance of turning public opinion around regarding his handling of immigration. The MAGA faithful will continue to approve on immigration, but disapproval will continue to increase with respect to all other Americans. 

The problem is that increasing disapproval on immigration may not mean anything to Trump. Because he is big on denial and never one to admit defeat, I expect he will proclaim the fantastic success of his immigration policies. He will crow about how excited and supportive the public is about these successes.  I expect him to continue pressing his immigration talking points and dismiss disapproval numbers as “fake news” and “rigged Democrat polls.”  After all, his Administration now has hundreds of billions of dollars for immigration enforcement. He has increased capacity to maximize arrests. He’ll vastly expand the capacity for detention with new facilities that cage hundreds of thousands of migrants. And he has the dollars to conduct the largest mass deportation in American history.

Yet, I don’t believe we should feel hopeless about the future.  In an upcoming article I’ll explore how we can prevent the tragedies that loom if Trump fully executes his immigration policies. Stay tuned!