“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”

Candidate Donald Trump at a campaign stop in Iowa on January 23, 2016

The prevailing wisdom among political pundits is that President Trump’s Republican base is unflinchingly loyal.  Indeed, going back to his first term, Gallup shows approval of Trump among Republicans was at or above 90% much of the time, averaging 88% for the term.

Upon entering office in January, Trump’s job approval rating from Republicans was at 94% (The Economist/YouGov Poll). Most of us know that significant percentages of Independents and Democrats who voted for Trump in November are now disapproving. However, we know less about how Republicans are viewing Trump since he took office.

To answer this question, I decided to dive into weekly public opinion surveys from The Economist/YouGov Poll. These surveys are ideal for at least two reasons. First, they enable us to see trends because many questions are asked on a weekly basis. And second, because the surveys break out responses by political party, this allows us to focus on Republicans. Also, rather than simply investigating trends regarding “favorability” and “job approval,” I expanded the inquiry. I decided to include how Republicans view Trump’s performance on handling specific issues (e.g., inflation and prices, jobs and the economy, immigration, etc.). The expanded analysis helps us pinpoint where support among Republicans remains strong and where support is eroding. 

Since taking office in late January, here is how President Trump’s ratings from Republicans have changed in just nine months.

1. Trump’s favorability rating from Republicans suffered a 10-point drop in “favorable” (95% to 85%) and a 9-point increase in “unfavorable” (5% to 14%).

In late January, 95% of Republicans rated Trump favorably, including 68% very favorable, and 27% somewhat favorable.  Only 5% of Republicans gave him an unfavorable rating (Economist/YouGov, January 26-28).  By the end of September, 85% of Republicans rated Trump favorably, including 56% very favorable, and 29% somewhat favorable.  Trump was given an unfavorable rating by 14% of Republicans.  Notably, the percentage of Republicans who rated Trump “very favorable” dropped by 12 points (68% to 56%).

2. Trump’s job approval rating from Republicans suffered a 9-point drop in “approve” (94% to 85%) and a 9-point increase in “disapprove” (3% to 12%).

In late January, 94% of Republicans approved of Trump’s job performance, including 71% strongly approve and 23% somewhat approve.  Only 3% of Republicans disapproved of his performance (Economist/YouGov, January 26-28). By the end of September, 85% of Republicans approved of Trump’s performance, including 55% strongly approve, and 30% somewhat approve.  Trump’s job performance was disapproved by 12% of Republicans.  Notably, the percentage of Republicans who “strongly approve” of Trump’s job performance declined by 16 points (71% to 55%). 

3. Trump’s ratings from Republicans on his handling of inflation and prices suffered a 16-point drop in “approve” (84% to 68%) and a 19-point increase in “disapprove” (4% to 23%).

In late January, 84% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of inflation and prices, including 59% strongly approve and 25% somewhat approve.  Only 4% of Republicans disapproved of his performance.  Another 12% of Republicans had “no opinion.”  (Economist/YouGov, January 26-28).  By the end of September, 68% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of inflation and prices, including 34% strongly approve, and 34% somewhat approve.  Trump’s handling of inflation and prices was disapproved by 23% of Republicans.  And 9% of Republicans had “no opinion” (Economist/YouGov, September 26-29).  Notably, the percentage of Republicans who “strongly approve” of his handling of inflation and prices declined by 25 points (59% to 34%). 

4. Trump’s ratings from Republicans on his handling of jobs and the economy suffered a 10-point drop in “approve” (90% to 80%) and a 11-point increase in “disapprove” (2% to 13%).

In late January, 90% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of jobs and the economy, including 63% strongly approve and 27% somewhat approve.  Only 2% of Republicans disapproved of his performance.  Another 8% of Republicans had “no opinion.”  (Economist/YouGov, January 26-28).  By the end of September, 80% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of jobs and the economy, including 50% strongly approve, and 30% somewhat approve.  Trump’s handling of this issue was disapproved by 13% of Republicans.  And 7% of Republicans had “no opinion” (Economist/YouGov, September 26-29).  Notably, the percentage of Republicans who “strongly approve” of his handling of jobs and the economy declined by 13 points (63% to 50%). 

5. Trump’s ratings on his handling of taxes and government spending suffered a 12-point drop in “approve” (87% to 75%) and a 16-point increase in “disapprove” (5% to 21%).

In late January, 87% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of the issue of taxes and government spending, including 61% strongly approve, and 26% somewhat approve.  Only 5% of Republicans disapproved, and 8% had “no opinion” (Economist/YouGov, January 26-28).  By early September, 75% of Republicans approved of his handling of this issue, including 42% who strongly approved and 33% who somewhat approved; and 21% disapproved.  Notably, the percentage of Republicans who “strongly approve” of his handling of this issue dropped by 19 points (61% to 42%).

6. Trump’s ratings from Republicans on his handling of immigration remain relatively steady, with only a 3-point drop in “approve” (90% to 87%) and a 4-point increase in “disapprove” (5% to 9%). 

In early February, 90% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of immigration, including 75% strongly approve, and 15% somewhat approve.  Only 5% of Republicans disapproved, and another 5% had “no opinion” (Economist/YouGov, February 2-4).  By the end of September, 87% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of this issue, including 72% strongly approve and 15% somewhat approve; and 9% disapproved (Economist/YouGov, September 26-29).

7. Trump’s ratings from Republicans on his handling of crime remain relatively steady, with no change in “approve” (87% and 87%), and a 4-point increase in “disapprove” (3% to 7%). 

In late January, 87% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of the issue of crime, including 64% strongly approve, and 22% somewhat approve.  Only 3% of Republicans disapproved, and 11% had “no opinion”  (Economist/YouGov, January 26-28).  By mid-September, 87% of Republicans approved of his handling of this issue, including 66% strongly approve and 21% somewhat approve.  Disapproval inched up to 7%, and 6% had “no opinion.” 

Conclusion: Trump’s “invincible” base of support from Republicans has noticeably eroded since January; and while the erosion is not likely to continue at the same rate, Trump and the party should be seriously concerned.

On broad measures such as favorability and overall job approval, Trump’s ratings from Republicans have dropped significantly.  The 9 to 10-point swings are especially noteworthy in that there is even greater erosion in “strong approval” on these measures.   

On specific issues, Republicans are especially concerned about Trump’s handling of matters that affect their pocketbooks and the economy.  The 16-point drop in approval (and the 19-point increase in disapproval) regarding Trump’s handling of inflation and prices is especially noteworthy.  And with more than one-fifth of Republicans (21%) now disapproving of his handling of taxes and government spending, this is another significant erosion in support.   Again, the erosion in “strong support” for these issues is even greater. On issues that don’t directly affect the pocketbook–immigration and crime–the erosion in Republican support is minimal. This suggests these issues aren’t driving the overall erosion in support from Republicans.

The findings in this analysis do not merit a conclusion that President Trump’s ratings from Republicans will continue to erode at the current pace.  Rather, history from other presidents and Trump’s first term suggest that approval and disapproval ratings from Republicans will ebb and flow. Should the economy collapse, inflation skyrocket, or the President get caught up in a major scandal, we are likely to see significant additional erosion in support from Republicans. Otherwise, it’s safe to predict that Trump’s approval numbers from Republicans will be slightly lower than those of his first term, but won’t fall below 75% approval in most instances.

Finally, and regardless, the erosion in support from Republicans is bad news for President Trump and his party.  When combined with the very significant erosion in support from Independents, along with the erosion in support from Democrats who voted for him, Trump no longer commands the coalition that swept him and his party into power.  He and the Republicans know that this threatens success in the November 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election.